Squeeze with ATs, OOP three ways, 1.5 SPR, bluff or give up?

honestly im jamming

I’m not 3b against a guy who’s using the big sizing pre (when he also used small sizings). We can call closing the action.

As played this cbet is ambitious 3 ways but maybe ok. We get in this terrible turn spot where we are oop in a big pot without a lot of equity. I guess just jam? We picked up an emergency gutter if she finds a call.

I find in these spots ranges are pretty tight once they call the flop. Sure she can fold 99 or some flush draws but I don’t think she’s folding AJ or QQ.

I would’ve liked a check fold on flop.

ATdd might be the worst combo to jam with, do not jam with this hand on the turn

Preflop and flop is great, your sizing is perfect, and its not the type of moves i see at 1/2 1/3. I mean, this is standard stuff, and a hugely EV+ move against the field and i see it way less often than the correct frequency even from 2/5 pros.

OTTH im giving up. She has the J or better, and she will fold the J sometimes but not enough to be EV+. You said yourself shes not very sticky, so she probably way overfolded the flop already.

Now that you are here, a jam might be your only play. Will it tilt you to lose? Can you rebuy? You sized it well for a turn jam, so I'd go for it.

She might fold a J and she could have spades and give up. She might fold 99/TT or QQ (doubtful she has it and doubtful she'll fold it if she does, but maybe).

You mentioned an interesting part - when some players' opening sizes are not consistent, what do you think the possible hands that they open big with? By my very limited observations, bigger opening size by the same player is more leaning towards medium strength hand, like JJ/TT, or even middle suited connectors, such as 9Ts. Curious what other people have seen.

Thanks bro. This hand was played in the UK, so the currency is £.

In the casino where this was played at, 1/2 has a mix of tourists, locals and a good amount of for-profit players who are playing both 2/5 and 1/2 , amoungst them lots are the so called 'Euros'. It is probably not worth overdoing the squeeze play here because the fold equity you get is not good - there are always some newbies who do not 3-bet with AA, and on Saturday night there are certain amount of drunk whales who are not here to fold. Luckily V1 and V2 seem more 'normal' players having normal ranges.

"Now that you are here, a jam might be your only play. Will it tilt you to lose? Can you rebuy? You sized it well for a turn jam, so I'd go for it."

You brought up an important factor - the mental part. Sometimes in similar spots I would tilt if I didn't jam, other times I would tilt more if I jammed, got a call and lost. It was very close this time. Maybe it would be easier to check the flop, and observed whether we check-fold or check-raise.

i think you could xf the flop

My experience is that 3 betting is hugely profitable at low stakes not because of preflop fold equity, but because of the flop cbet fe.

It varies greatly but if I was going to generalize it could be something like:

Tiny they show up with suited gappers, suited connectors, some trash offsuit Broadway like QTo KTo.

Medium they show up with good broadways mostly. AK AQ KQ KJs.

Large they often have aces kings AK.

Huge is usually TT-KK weighted towards jacks and queens.

Of course revealing your hand class on the first street is a huge blunder.

I don't like 3!ing if the opener is likely raising large with good hands. Also, you don't need to have 3! bluffs at 1/2. When both players call like this, you can do it just for value. I would prefer to be in position and prefer a suited connector to bluff with, regardless of blockers.

As played, it seems close. I would probably push.

Once your read is "not very sticky" and they stick you are in bad shape.

So the amount of chatter here about preflop sizing has me thinking to mention the advantage you can gain against other thinking players by varying your preflop sizing for reasons unrelated to hand strength. A lot of people change their sizing based on number of limpers, but you also can change the sizing based on who the limpers are, based on your position. You oughta know your bet sizing before you even look at your cards.

Exactly what I was thinking.

Interesting!

At the point of this hand, we had seen V1's opening size to be 10 & 12 without limpers. Later on in the session, in V1's last hand he opened to 15 (three different sizes now!)and heads-up against another v.

The flop came KKQ two hearts, V1's opponent bet, V1 min-raised, his opponent 3-bet jammed, something like from 30 to 300. He snap called.

Turn: x. River: Ah. His opponent showed KQ; V1 mucked and left.

Given that he lost, he can't have AA or JThh. I folded the last K PF so he can't have a trip on the flop. Ah showed up on the river so he can't have an Ace combo draw OTF. The most reasonable hand he played this way on the flop would be QQ, and that corresponds what you said what people would open 'huge' with.

I would be keen to do more field research and build my data base regarding this as well.

Yes you are right - at the time of playing this did not come into my mind.

On the positive side, if V2's not sticky, she would probably give up Axss on the turn, probably inc. A5ss & ATss. At 1/2 lots of players wouldn't fold those hands OTT.

If there's no one limping before me, my open size should be consistent at one table (unless I am SB against BB).

In the way I play, if there are limpers before me, the size I raised to would vary by 1. am I in late position or am I at the blinds? 2. how elastic are the limpers. 3. the vpip rate of the player behind me. It should not vary by my hand strength.

For a while I used to use a 4bb opening size, or 4bb + dead money if there are limpers. However once when there were 2 limpers, and I saw AA on the HJ. I opened and had to see the flop with four other opponents and we had to fold at the turn. Nightmare. That made me realise some players are not very elastic calling 2 or calling 15 (or anything under 20).

Reveal:

I jammed and my opponent went into a long tank. Eventually we heard 'you can have this one' and luckily we got away with it this time.

Thanks everyone for the feedback!