AGAIN: value-bet or check behind with trips after AWFUL River
Game is $2-$100 spread-limit. Blinds $1-$2. My $260 is effective, and I’m on the Button with 7d6d.
Couple folds, MP opens to $8, CO calls, I 3-bet to $28 on the Button. SB cold-calls, MP calls, CO calls.
FLOP: JcTd7c (pot: $110, 4-ways)
The SB (a very young kid, clearly new to the game—he checked the effective nuts in position earlier—leads for $18. MP calls. CO calls. I call too. It’s ****ing 10 to 1 and I close the action with a pair and BDFD.
TURN: JcTd7c 7s (pot: $180, 4 ways).
BINGO!!! Everyone checks to me and I obviously bet $100. SB fish folds, but MP open-raiser calls. CO folds. Heads-up.
RIVER: JcTd7c 7s Ac (pot: $380, heads-up).
He checks. I have $115 left and he covers. Do I bet $100 or check?
5 Replies
Not sure what we’re getting value from. He can easily check a flush or straight on a paired board. I guess we’re targetting exactly AJ and AT? Seems thin.
Raise bigger pre, at least $35, if not $40.
Flop and turn seem fine.
River is a weird spot. The betting limit creates implied odds that would allow V to flat call turn with some draws that improve on the river.
Doubtful he's going to call a big bet with Jx. Maybe AJ, AT, or JT. But if he thinks his 2P is good, I'd think he'd just lead out, unless he thinks you were bluffing turn and will continue to bluff, which seems unlikely, when all the draws get there.
The thing about the 7s on turn is that it doesn't complete or add any draws. 98 was already there on the flop, and you'd have likely bet it for value with the FDFD on board. Your turn bet is repping exactly 7x, or maybe JT. Maybe we'd play a flush draw this way, but I'd think we'd be betting the flop with those draws at least some of the time.
I guess my point is that V probably doesn't expect us to have a straight or flush, and if he puts us on JT, he might call with six combos of AJs or ATs, and maybe a few more offsuit combos. The problem is that the combos we're targeting for value block the combo we're hoping he'll think we have.
I dunno. I like betting thin, but this feels like it might be too thin, unless we have a read on V that he's a total station. It would suck to bet $100 and have to pay off a raise with our last $15.
Then again, what flushes does he have? KQ, QT, Q8, or a slow played 98?
I probably just check back here, at low stakes, without a very strong read and good reason to bet. There just doesn't seem to be enough hands we can target for value, and just a few too many hands that have us beat.
Game is $2-$100 spread-limit. Blinds $1-$2. My $260 is effective, and I’m on the Button with 7d6d.
RIVER: JcTd7c 7s Ac (pot: $380, heads-up).
He checks. I have $115 left and he covers. Do I bet $100 or check?
RESULT: I bet $100 and he tanks (I fade the snap!) before eventually calling with JcTh (a quite good calling hand in terms of blocker qualities, it must be said, even if it’s pretty weak in absolute value).
I absolutely would have checked back if I’d had more money. Even just a little bit more. I think I would have checked with $150 back instead of the $115 I had.
Nice hand, Davo.
