OESFD

Would be interested to know why you didn't 3bet preflop. Of course much depends on how you profile UTG2 as well as BN, SB and BB (i.e. how likely is UTG2 to 4bet/how likely is it those behind squeeze?).

In respect of the three scenarios, you are considering shoving $140 (not $90) into a pot of $150 as well as bet smaller amounts or checking.

Scenario 1: You have to consider that UTG2 called your raise on the flop, which means their continuation range is strong, especially as you block flush and straight draws. Given the SPR is around 1 and therefore your FE minimal, you're best realising your actual equity by checking.

Scenario 2: I don't mind the smaller bet of $50. UTG2 likely has AK, the K♥ is already on the board, so protection wise you're probably only need to dodge 2 AhKx combos or 3 AhAx combos.

Scenario 3: Probably shoving on the 9c, although you can bet small and still bet small again on most rivers.

1 - check

2 - bet 50

3 - hmmm... Jamming at 1/2 probably isn't terrible if V is loose and sticky. But I think I might just bet 50 again and jam the rest in on the river.

I was new to the table. I had asked for a table change, because the other table they were just playing for the bad beat jackpot and would limp in and fold to raises. I was making really small for live raises as a result, but decided to get away.

I don't 3! light much at these stakes. I didn't think a squeeze or a 4! was likely, but had no reads on the players. I did think this was a decent hand to 3! and the open sizing didn't seem super strong.

The turn was actually 8h, giving me 2nd nuts. I actually bet 50, villain snap called, and I bet the remaining 90 on a brick river.

Obviously, I was getting it in if he 3-bet the flop. I thought about it and with his preflop raising in ep, his large cbet sizing, and calling the raise that he probably had a decent made hand and it would be better to check back a turn I miss in position.

I think you played it right.

I wouldn't even consider a 3! PF. You just joined the table and UTG2 is unknown. You would need him to fold ~70% of his range. He opened with 5bb. Against the population tendencies at 1/2, I'm just calling and expecting the BUT to fold and 1 or both blinds to come along a majority of the time. I'm good with that going to the flop.

Scenerio 1 - After your raised is called, I think that your FE is near zero. Shoving and getting called just gives you bad odds vs your equity heading to the River. I would check.

Scenerio 2 - I would go with the smaller size planning to shove for a little over 1/3 PSB OTR

Scenerio 3 - is a shove.

I didn't 3! pre, but he doesn't need to fold 70% of his range. At 1/3, you might get a cold caller. Obviously, you have a good hand to play with a bigger pot, and might get folds postflop representing JJ+ or AK. You are not making your profit 3-betting light by getting folds preflop like in a tournament, even at much higher stakes live cash.

I actually made the flush. Villain tanked for about a minute, called 90 on the river, and mucked. Someone asked him if he had a flush, since I had 2nd nuts, which I knew he didn't have. He said he had KQ, which I am pretty sure was true, since he wasn't answering me. I thought 50 into 160 on the turn made it look like I was also afraid of the flush.

The break even percent is bet/(bet+pot). So a 3! of 30 would be 30/42= ~71. If he calls then you can't really think about stealing the pot on later streets. Boards that favor your perceived range will favor his actual range.

I also disagree that picking up a pot preflop uncontested isn't important for your winrate. In this situation, if we would of won the pot by 3! PF, that's a tidy profit of 6.5bb. They say that 10bb/hr is crushing the game...