AQs UTG vs. TT BTN, Post Flop Play
This is a generalisation of a hand that I recently played. I wonder what's the best strategy for each player post flop.
AQs can be in any suit, TT can be 99-JJ. Other factors are fixed.
UTG opens 4bb （8）with AQs. UTG is the effective stack of 100bb (200).
UTG +1 flats (covers).
BTN 3！to 35 with TT.
UTG called, the other player folded. Heads up.
Surely BTN can have some flat calls instead of 3!, and UTG can sometimes fold to the 3-bet.
Anyway, as played,
Flop (80) comes A36 rainbow. AQ has no BDFD.
AQ checked called BTN's bet of 30 with a pot-size bet left.
Turn (140): K
What's AQ's plan here on the turn and a brick river?
And if we are the btn with 99-JJ, AP what's our best strategy for the turn & river? Without knowing UTG's exact hand, do we give up or trying to bluff through? Is there a GTO answer for the best strategy, or at low stakes what's our highest EV play?
3 Replies
FWIW, IP should bet flop smaller and leave room for 3 streets worth of (small) bets on this board. The 3! size is also a little overkill.
In theory, AQ isn’t really getting away from their hand very often. In practice, they can do a lot of explo folding because nobody at these stakes are finding enough bluffs to force you to bluff catch.
I think you’ve astutely sensed IP doesn’t have enough natural bluffs here for how strong their range is. Most draws and almost all air should continue OTT, and even some pairs need to mix in, starting with the worst ones in their range.
This is absolutely the best play in practice as well. Players at these stakes are very lost defending 3!s OOP, and no TAgg likes to station off a stack. Also nobody slow plays premiums preflop, so you’re going to get all the folds from QQ- and random air you need, plus a lot of additional folds from top pair.
Hey thanks very much for the opinions!
I think you’ve astutely sensed IP doesn’t have enough natural bluffs here for how strong their range is. Most draws and almost all air should continue OTT, and even some pairs need to mix in, starting with the worst ones in their range.
This is absolutely the best play in practice as well. Players at these stakes are very lost defending 3!s OOP, and no TAgg likes to station off a stack. Also nobody slow plays premiums preflop, so you’re going to get all the folds from QQ- and ra
I think some player profile can add additional info to the play. Both OP and IP's vpip are low, however OP is not TAG. OP likes trapping. OP is a MAWW, in her 50's. In a different session, we saw OP playing KK UTG (single raise pot) and check-call three streets on a Q8x8x board and stack off to a different IP's K8s. Perhaps the image of the BTN in this hand, could be slightly more solid than the IP with K8s - not sure whether OP would be able to adjust her strategy.
Let's say we are confident PF OP's 3-bet calling range is TT-QQ, AJs, AQ, and maybe a small chance of AKo. And when OP called the flop, we also ruled out TT & JJ. Is it still a good strategy for IP to keep barreling?
IMO to determine whether it's worth bluffing, it's not just whether IP's action line makes sense, it's more whether OP has enough FE OTT, or whether she's the type who can fold TPGK with 1SPR.
I am happy to hear different thoughts.
Oh, that certainly changes things. Preflop should probably just be a flat, especially OTB.
If their range is that strong there’s nothing we can really do on this board regardless of how she plays. It’s best to just be very passive and make small bets.
