AKo river decision

I like .5p turn, .5-.7p river.

As played with the turn PSB, we probably got about all the value this hand is worth. We could maybe exploitatively get one more street from some players, but I'd xb readless.

I just limp in.

I think I check back the flop 3ways. Although I don't hate a small bet with some possible barrel backdoors. But also really don't want to face a check/raise (and calling one is dicey, imo).

I think I check back the turn. I doubt we're getting value from worse from a competent player here. But we can setup a bluff catcher / river payoff. And meanwhile limit the damage when crushed. Next time post pot size on each street, but did this guy just call a huge PSB on the turn?

I'm having trouble thinking of a worse hand that gets here this way that a competent player also pays off with (especially since he can't have AQdd/ATdd). Plus a competent player might be capable of putting us in the blender here. Against ABC weak passive players this is a value bet all day, but I'm not sure about here.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I'm folding the flop with ace high there to a raise from a newish player but that's just me.

As played check the turn, he's probably continuing with two pair/sets anyway, but we're literally in no man's land especially if he raised the flop with AJ.

I’m curious if I can afford to be betting any one pair on the turn, since the turn check after the flop rr seems so trappy after the thought. At the time, V’s turn check made me think he was pretty capped.

well rts but if he has a set or two pair (of which I would definitely think he does when he makes a small 3x raise mulitway which is usually more value than semi bluffs by far) he's either calling or raising. I would be happy just to get to SD even if it goes c/c tbh (but I woulda folded on the flop if it was me).

Obvious flop check is obvious. I'd be checking AA here a lot and maybe always if BB was competent as you imply, as there's almost no draws and not much hits our UTG range but he can have everything.

Just fold to the raise, are you really calling for BDNFD?

On turn it's weird, he's kind of saying he might have the FD so we should bet our A "to charge" but if he's good enough to see that then he should be good enough to do the same with 22 and x/r again. Also if he doesn't have the NFD he can be worried that we have it along with our top pair.
I can see arguments for a bunch of different sizes, and maybe even checking (we've already put more money in that we would want to with top pair). Note that the main hands we are betting to get calls from are flush draws. Maybe V got cute with KJ and we got super lucky, but that's asking a lot.

I really don't expect anyone to x/r flop and then x/r turn with worse, esp. if we go bigger than about third pot. So bet/fold seems fine. Pot seems a bit much, but we do have AA/JJ and we shouldn't have the hand we do.

What do you want V to have that calls us on the river?

The small flop raise sort of lured you in, and then villain trapped by checking the A on the turn. Seems way overplayed. At low stakes, flop raises are often 2-pair or better.

It’s not ideal at this size, no.

It’s a pretty reliable heuristic that when an otherwise dry overcard hits the turn, the PFR wants to bet small with a wide range of hands. This allows you to take advantage of your edge with broadways and making it harder for them to part with lower pairs to the board despite the diminished number of pure bluffing candidates in our range.

This is all in theory, of course. In practice, the described player population is ridiculously lopsided on front-side draws and hands that have aces beat on the flop, particularly in a multiway pot with an UTG player. Still think it’s fine to peel one when they 1/3p raise your 1/3p bet, and I think it’s hilarious they showed up with one of the 6 best combos to blasting off on every street here.

Guess I gotta hand it to them, though, they did get max value…

Yeah, when he raises the flop at low stakes, that is usually better than one pair or a good draw. If he raised TPTK, he also is way ahead on the turn. So it is hard to see what you get value from on the river, as he either has you beat or has a busted draw most of the time.

I would be more careful after he raised the flop and not blast off the turn and river with TPTK.

PRE - raise size seems a little small for most 1/3 games with $500 max. Assuming $12 open is standard here? If so, then it's fine.

FLOP - If this was heads up, I wouldn't mind the c-bet. Against both blinds, especially the BB with $1200, I wouldn't mind a check back for pot control, to avoid getting x/raised.

As played, I guess we can call the BB's 2.5x x/r, because of how deep we are. But with the Ad in our hand, I wouldn't assume V is just on a flush draw. I'd assume he has 1P + a draw, like 87dd, 2P+, or some sort of combo-draw, like T9dd or 98dd. We need to be careful about how we'll be playing the turn.

TURN - Interesting spot. We make TPTK, which doesn't need to be turned into a bluff, and ordinarily wouldn't seem to need much protection, unless we're putting V on some sort of combo draw which can still suck out. I don't mind betting, but I don't think we need to bet full pot. I think 2/3 pot should be more than enough.

RIVER - Yuck. The 8 brings in T9dd and 87dd. After we bet-call flop, and bet turn, I feel like we may have run out of value now, and we should just be checking back.

Your V does sound pretty competent, check-raising flop and check-calling turn on the A, which is a good card for you to bluff as the PFR. If you have an A, you're going to bet most brick rivers. If you don't have the A, you're likely to feel compelled to double-barrel with your missed draws if he checks again.

I'm all for betting for thin value on the river, but V's turn check-call would make all my warning bells go off. Like, if he was check-raising the flop with some sort of combo-draw that missed, I'd think he'd be check-folding turn when all the draws miss. It doesn't necessarily feel like a trap when he checks, but it definitely feels off when he calls a pot sized bet.

It's hard to think what hands he has that play this way and are worse than ours that will call a value bet on the river. We lose to AJ, J7, 77, 22, 87, and T9. Maybe he x/r's flop with a hand like 98dd, 97dd or T7dd, but none of those hands are likely to call when we bet pot on the turn.

I wouldn't think 2P+ would just be check-calling turn, but that leaves 1P + a draw or just a draw for his range, and a lot of those combos made 2P or a straight on the river. When we start getting down to V needing to call with weak 2nd or 3rd pairs, and there are only a few combos, but the rest of his range is 2P+, it seems like an auto-check-back.

Yes, nicely played by villain and poorly played by OP, who fell right into the trap.

Villain could maybe checkraise the river, but he was probably worried about AA/JJ with the big bets.