Facing all in on river with 2 pair

Preflop is pretty rough (I like using those junky offsuit aces as 3-bet or fold candidates), but everything else looks fine. Obviously calling the River getting over 5:1 and beating several value hands. (A6, A4, 98, 86, 96).

Fold pre, as played it seems like he had a FD but ended up with a straight, but that's just me. I would probably call though.

Pre is bad. A8o is an awful hand; it's a clear fold unless you think you can 3b to get CO to fold or at least play fit/fold if he calls.

As for villain's line, not sure what he has. I feel a set or 2p plays flop or turn more agressively.

River, I probably just jam first time around. As played trivial call, given odds, and expecting to see a weirdly played 2p more than enough for this to be worth it. Wouldn't be surprised to see A8 too.

Edit: re: PlayBigs, yeah I missed 57 or 7T(???), presumably of hearts, is a possibility. Stil calling though.

You’ve got a whole forum of people salivating at the opportunity to yell at you about how bad you need to fold pre. And I’m sorry to inform you they’re not wrong here.

Turn is too thin 3-way.

AP, I’d just shove river, but I’d be lying if I acted like I never lost track of my opponent’s remaining stack.

It does honestly feel like you could almost fold here. Minimax is definitely to call though as calling is worst case only going to be barely bad while folding is potentially disastrous.

More valuable learning opportunities are definitely pre and turn.

I’m very surprised to see everyone saying to fold pre. My thinking for calling junk Ax hands in the button against a CO open in this configuration is for multiple reasons:

• The threat of a 3-bet is very minimal against these relatively tight players, so we more often than not get to play a hand in-position for cheap.
  
• I felt like CO could be raising with enough Kx and Qx hands that give us enough equity to call here. I’m not sure if the math justifies this though.
  
• People in low stakes tend to underbluff on later streets after they miss on A high flops. I feel like once they cbet and I call flop and V does have me outkicked, I will know on later streets and can get away appropriately.
  

Turn is definitely a bit iffy, I find it always hard to determine bet sizing in multiway pots. My decision to bet out here was partly influenced by the fact that I blocked part of their x/c range of 8x straight draws while still beating some value like weak Aces and strong 9x if they’re sticky. A more standard hand I’d have here like ATo or lower Ax suited hands I’d check back.

This is good! We all come on to the forums to help others and get helped.

Offsuit aces are notorious for underrealizing their equity.

Even so, our best case scenario is HU against CO, and giving them a generous 30% range (pretty wide for isoing a supposedly solid player) we still have 48% equity. We have the button, but we have a capped range against someone with the initiative. This isn’t terrible.

That’s not gonna happen often though. I imagine a supposedly solid player isn’t open limping the HJ just to fold too often. Best case scenario I give them 77-/A7s-/SCs, then we notch just over 30% equity with worst relative position in a hand that way underrealizes its equity multiway.

The blinds will wake up with a top 20% hand a combined 36% of the time, in which case we’ll have <28% equity in a 3-way pot. When the HJ comes along too, we’re just over 21%.

If anyone wakes up with a 3!, we forfeit all of our equity.

As for the turn, you’re a little confused but you’ve got the right idea I guess. When you’re value betting, you don’t want to block worse hands that will call.

wow what a trainwreck of a hand, fold pre

Re raise pre. You’re in position so worth a shot imo.

I like the turn bet….but would it be correct to check? These spots are tricky.

Your notes on V say he doesn’t bluff much and aggressively bets his value hands so this is a fold.

pre seems like a bad decision to me. we do have the button, so we can get involved with some more speculative hands, but I don't think that includes weak off suit aces. vs tag opener we are probably dominated. that being said there is a certain logic to it, since we have the button so we might be able to steal the pot if nobody hits. if our opponents play face up or check give up too much it might be a little more forgiveable.

flop actually fold is to be considered. is this TAG a c-bettor? does he go after pots with air? or is he pretty much always going to have Ax or some premium draw here? this is part of the problem with pre, we flop tptk and against some players we are in really bad shape. vs more aggro players we're happy to continue.

turn looks good.

Thanks everyone, its starting to make sense how bad the preflop call is. Usually, this adjustment has proven to be quite successful for me against fish (especially LAGs) who play straight up after the flop action. Most of my current strategy is geared toward exploiting the weakest players, so guess I gotta work on adjusting my play when I do go against competent players.

Results:

The TAG definitely c-bets a wide range from the limited hands I saw from him. I also knew more likely than not that if he checked the turn, I was good.

Your line is a little bit neither here nor there. What I mean is that you're playing A8o passively pre and on flop, then you suddenly take the betting lead by stabbing the turn, and barrel the river with 2P.

So we're sort of floating pre-flop and on the flop, playing our hand like a bluff catcher, then somewhat over-playing it on the turn, and then going for thin value on the river.

When V calls the turn, what hands do you think he has, when he limped in from the HJ pre, and over-called the CO's raise? He's unlikely to have a big ace, like AT+. He's more likely to have some other AX hand, possibly aces up with A9, A6, or A4, all of which would probably check-raise, or he's on a draw.

The draw could be the flush, but when he limp-calls pre, I think he could be really wide, wide enough to pick up some straight draws on the turn. If we're going to bet the turn, I think we'd want to bet bigger than 1/2 pot, and probably go 3/4.

When we bet 1/2 pot on turn, and the 8 completes T7 and 75, I'm not sure what hands we'd be targeting for value that will call a bet. Maybe AT or even AJo that didn't open pre, or some worse AX, but that's pretty optimistic.

Usually I'm all for going for thin value, but V's check-call flop, check-call turn, check river line makes me a little uneasy about betting the river.

I would mostly fold A8o even if it was folded to me on the Button (i.e. I'm not even sure it is worth the effort to steal the blinds). But I'm most definitely folding it if anyone else has entered the pot, let alone competent players, let alone with a raise.

It's a little unclear what our stack is, but assuming $300 effective, the SPR is about ~7. I would never want to move towards commitment with this weak of a hand so I would never consider raising the flop. Even calling is dicey to to raiser continuing into 2 opponents, but I guess we can't fold yet for this price.

I think I'm ok with a turn bet as the last bet I put into the pot UI. It is still certainly possible that either of them can have Ax (which will likely be better) but I'm cool with a final bet now to protect against all the potential draws, plus less chance of setting up a bluffcatcher due to the pot being multiway.

Think I might jam the river myself with just a PSB left. Facing the check/raise is pretty weird and it really just looks like a busted flush that hit a straight. And while I'm guessing most competent regs don't overvalue worse here enough (plus this guy doesn't seem bluffy), I can understand us paying off for this price (although in reality we should probably just make a super exploitable nitty fold here and damn the odds).

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