A 3bet pot with a bad runoff

Preflop sizing is maybe standard in Euro games, but seems small for typical live games.

I would just call the flop. You may be good and have 6 outs to improve big. You can check/reevaluate on later streets unimproved.

There is no standard RFI size in this casino; 12 is on the smaller side. But "most people raise larger" isn't a reason to raise larger.

you way overplayed raising the flop, and now youre dead. You lose to all Axs and all 88+ except 99 which has an OESD. Theres a good chance he has KK, but you cant semibluff to try and fold out exactly 1 combo.

Think I'd probably 4B-fold pre. Once we flat call, we're in no man's land and OOP post flop.

Just check-calling flop. Might check-call or fold turn depending on his bet sizing. Definitely not raising if we don't improve. Probably fold river if he goes bet, bet, bet.

4bing here is terrible unless villain either 5bs with worse hands or 3bs wide and will call his whole range, both of which are unlikely in a live setting. OTR I'm not really doing anything other than checking - sure we can get KK to fold, but I doubt he folds AK/AQ/AJ.

Idk about general live settings, but I know for sure that this villain does neither of those things.

i mean 4bing pre isnt terrible esp when the sizing is a 5x

post would bet the turn small w range if u get here like this and then figure it out

flop is w/e but seems like a good way to lose alot vs a guy who rarely 3bs and chooses to go 5x

4bet is fine and arguably best, at least you want to do it sometimes.

Flop is an error given your reasoning. Seems like you've come up with some arbitrary reasons why your opponent can't have an overpair, haven't considered a set, and in any event a check-raise probably isn't the correct play if your read is right and he does have a hand like AK. In a 3bet pot I'd expect this flop to get checked back a bit as well.

Reveal is probably KK given the check back, but there are other dangers to worry about. He shouldn't have AK etc very often as your check-raise folded those out, and you're not getting a set to fold (although what are people doing in V's shoes with TT facing a river jam? Not that TT gets here this way often). Check-fold (you'll occasionally win against AJ)

can you explain why a call is higher EV than a raise if opponent has AK?

I mean its not higher EV, but he probably just folds out his 8 outs, which is… fine. Whatever. But youre way behind TT, JJ, KK, AA. But as he said, why would he ber AK instead of check back to try and hit QQ+ ott?

Because he thinks he has to show strength after 3betting, otherwise he's announcing that he missed this flop

Also not to be pedantic, but isn't this a pretty big deal, EV wise, if he has AK? If we prevent him from seeing another card, that seems like a major win, and if we get him to put 140 more into the pot, that also seems like a major win. So like, I don't think it's whatever. If you ignore this part of the calculation, then yeah the raise gets much worse.

(Note also that I'm folding vs a jam here, so I'm not sure raising loses less money vs. KK and AA than calling. If you call, Turn is a blank, and villain bets 100-150 on the Turn, I'm assuming you call?)

Ok so, first thing, im not saying he never bets AK, but he FOR SURE bets AA KK and probably JJ TT more than AK here, and you said you discounted AA KK. AK is one hand in his range of hands, and it ought to be the one hes betting the least often (other than the fact there are more combos of AK)

Second thing, no, it isnt a big deal if he has AK here. If we speak from a theoretical standpoint, QQ almost never raises the flop here, and then GTO is basically calling about half the time with AK. He probably calls here, and then even if he doesnt hit his 8 outs, it means he has a hand he can bluff with to balance his heavily nutted range.

I mean heres the thing, GTO is facing bets from hands like K6s, A3s, 55, 44, 65s, so many more hands that looking at it isnt reasonable, and it STILL isnt raising QQ. Youre playing against a snug low stakes 3 bettor, when it hit almost his entire range and you are just hyperfixated on how great it is that you charged the one hand thats a MERE 31% against you. Like wow, you talk like you looked deep into his bright blue eyes and saw the glimmer of an Ace in his left eye and a king in his right. And in response you uh… gave him odds to call.

And no way im calling another bet on a turn blank. Against V as described, i most likely just fold flop. Im like 25% or less vs AA KK JJ TT 88, 50% vs QQ, and what, 75% vs AK AQ 99 77 AJ? Is he even playing that wide?

Vs TT+ AK AQ youre basically flipping, but i think its insane to assume he plays AK AQ this way as often as the PPs. Remove AQ and youre starting to get pretyy far behind. You can justify one call, not 2, and definitely not on an A or K turn which puts you behind literally everything.

I like four bet even if it's OOP if villain is likely to three bet with range outside of AA/KK.
As played, flat flop as this may be a large overplay.

thanks for the detailed reply! I get the rationale for calling now.

I discounted KK because of the bet sizing. I think KK bets larger. AA probably does as well though it might not. TT and JJ no, but I didn't think TT was in his range anyway. At the time the hand was played, I'd have put his range on QQ+, AK, maybe AQs, maybe JJ. Near zero percent for any bluffs. After the bet, AK is what I expect to see over half the time.

idk man. just way too many assumptions and adjustments being suggested in the thread based on very little evidence imo

yeah my playstyle is heavily exploitative in general. I'd not even call it adjustment bc that suggests I start from GTO and then move away some amount based on reads, which usually is not the actual process. It usually starts and ends with what I expect my opponent to do.

I used to play more GTO but imE this style is more profitable ¯\_(ツ😉_/¯

Alright discussion is over, so Villain had

and after the hand was over, bought me a free drink for the 'suck-out'. Like I said, very nice guy.

I'm fine with how you played each street individually, but not with the rationale behind it. Pre is 50/50, flop is a minority play for sure, but you should be showing up on the turn with a hand like this sometimes.

Beyond that, sometimes a bad card hits (in this case both bad for your range and bad for your individual holding), and you just need to check and pray villain shows down something chuckle-worthy. If you find it's hard to get to showdown in these spots with these hands, then check nutted hands more. Nothing you can do with this combo but make matters worse for yourself.