Raise or Call

Raise. We often have the best hand and when we don’t we’re drawing to the effective nuts. There are lots of bad turns, we don’t want this going multi way. There are lots of hands to get value from.

What are effective stacks against the players behind you? They are the ones who can have 98o and 43s.

UTG may still have an overpair (which you may well fold out) but you definitely want to raise here to get money in from straight draws, flush draws, two pair, lower sets, overpairs...plenty of action killing cards. Trying to stack off now if possible.

FWIW, if there's any possibility that a LP player is squeeze happy, then I'd rather just fold preflop here, I'd squeeze 99+ in your position. Calling is OK as long as you accept the risk of getting squeezed and also accept that you're going to have awkward multiway spots postflop - like here - a fair amount.

Easy raise here, ($70), looking to jam turn. Obviously gii if we are raised on flop.. UTG almost certainly has an overpair, and may well call our raise. We're not looking for every draw to come along as cheaply as possible,

Raisy daisy.

raise flop, jam turn

Yeah, I can see why you might be tempted to call, but at these stack sizes you should raise. In many situations where you flop top set and it is not the nuts, you just have to say “if you got me, you can still sweat the next 2 cards” and pile the money in.

I would much more strongly consider slowplaying bottom set than top set.

Raise. What do you think UTG can be doing this with? If you think he can be doing this with more than a straight (which is true for usual 1/2 players), then raise to get values from draws, overpairs, lower sets, two pairs, etc, not only from UTG but from the people behind you as well.

To be devils advocate here, I don't hate calling here. You can call no matter what the HJ and or CO do and you can call any turn. If UTG checks to you on the turn, you bet and you are going to leave a very reasonable shove behind on the river. You can raise any turn bet that isn't going to leave a palatable river shove behind.

You also leave the possibility that HJ or CO raise and UTG decides to go for it thinking you are capped, opening up the possibility of trippling up.

It's not impossible that UTG hero folds an overpair to a flop raise or turn barrel if you raise now.

Another thing that happens in spots like these sometimes is that UTG doesn't have jack, but HJ or CO have something they end up calling on turn and river when you bet and UTG check folds.

yeah, raise for sure. We're under 100 bb's to start which actually makes the hand so much easier. We're getting stacks in no matter what happens after we raise.

You make a good point. Most people want to raise here, when the board is so connected. Do you think that raising is somewhat pointless, because a raise doesn't deny enough equity from draws, and we just lose more when we're beat?

Also, is there a scenario in which we'd fold, such that flatting allows us to get away from our hand with less invested in the pot?

what is your stack size and the other players' stack sizes?

if you are all like 200 bb deep i dislike raising.

if you are all like 100-125 bb deep i prefer raising.

I don't think raising is pointless. We shouldn't be raising to deny equity though, we should be raising mainly to get value. The problem is a raise looks so strong we can't always get value. Like, sometimes if we just call, then HJ and CO will be the ones giving us action. Sometimes they will call with a flush draw and pick up a pair on the turn or hit two pair on the turn. Sometimes they will spazz out with a draw. And when they have a lower set or 2 pair they are going to raise anyways. A lot of times UTG doesn't actually have a good hand and raise accomplishes nothing.

Yeah we can sometimes get away from the pot if the runout is really bad and a lot of money goes in. That is the price of getting value.

with the flush draw out there this is a super easy raise spot, we disguise our hand within the range of a bajillion different draws that can put in a raise against a UTG cbet on this board.

120 bb's (125 bb's eff to start the hand)

My turn to play devil's advocate...

If we flat call, doesn't that also look pretty strong, on this board texture? How often are the HJ or CO going to be continuing with weak hands that are going to want to play a big pot if they pick up a pair or even 2P, and how often is UTG c-betting into four opponents with total air?

We don't have any reason to expect HJ or CO to do anything, but the UTG is saying he has a hand. If we raise, we might get HU and IP with him. If we flat, the HJ and CO might come along, or might not, but either way, we won't know where we're at on a lot of turns.

It seems like opponents folding to our raise or hitting their draws when we call are two sides of the same coin, which is the price of getting value.

you dont need to raise by much to get stacks in by the river, but even a small raise can fold out some rando 9x 8x 4x 3x (or even better, get a call), and the smaller raise entices people behind you to call.

Maybe $45 if it folds to UTG and he calls, pot 140 with 200 behind, you can go like $80/120. 50-60 is fine too, and certainly better if the people behind you dont look interested, or look especially interested

A scare card will likely peel on the turn or river but im probably betting at least 1 more street even if like 8h peels.

If we are going to raise, I am strongly of the opinion that this should be all in by the turn. I know (or at least I think) that theory says to spread out the betting over 3 streets with a made hand, but I want to deviate in case someone is willing to gamble with a draw and we miss getting their whole stack due to sizing not big enough (or we miss a chance to get more money in before a scare card comes). We all know that theory does not account for fish logic.

I kinda like this actually. I change my answer to this.