Triple barrel T8s on a KQ9 board?

I would think V has a ton of continuing hands here and so I’d shut it down. He should have folded his under pairs OTF.

As long as this guy is not a station, I would overbet this turn. I'm going 150-180.

With AA, I'd check the turn and bluff catch to 2/3 pot OTR.

This is a very wet flop. I am not sure about the cbet. Definitely giving up on the turn. Bad spot to triple barrel.

Agreed. Blasting the turn against a rando feels pretty spewtastic here, especially since your semi-bluff is a lot more bluff than semi.

As per usual, I dislike the small bet on the flop. On turn, take the free card or bet $75 if you feel he's weak.

It's close if you go pot turn, jam river and depends on how sticky he is with Kx on the river. I played with this some in PokerCruncher and I think its might be as close as losing if he calls Kx 3/4 of the time on the river and winning if he folds 2/3 of the time on the river. But that assumes he would call turn with QJo, QTo, and lots of flush draws to fold river.

I actually think a higher EV play would be to go 70 turn and ~pot the river ~240. Not trying to fold out a king, but trying to fold out his QJo, QTo, T9, FDs, etc. The problem with potting the turn is I don't think we have the immediate fold equity for it to be profitable, so if we are relying on the river jam, we are risking 455 to win 100 on the turn, or 455 to win 200 when he calls turn and folds river. Even if we have a slightly winning bluff jam once we get to the river, the fact that we also have to bet 100 on the turn means our EV on the turn is negative.

Also as for your question, if we had AA, I would be looking to go 3 streets for value on good runouts. I would also be doing this with AK, KJ. 2/3 turn and 2/3- pot river is probably a good sizing for value. 2p+ I may try to play for all the money.

I think KTs is close between betting turn and checking to bet river for value or potentially bluff catch. We have some hands like Qx that we can consider more bluff catching on river based on his sizing. I don't think we need to be taking hands as strong as AA and checking them on turn to bluff catch river. There is plenty to get value from on the turn and he can have a lot of equity. He may get there and even if he doesn't the board may get too ugly for us to get value. Or he might check call turn with draws that don't put in any more money if they miss on the river.

Yeah, I came to the same conclusion here. The overbet on the turn doesn’t seem to make much sense, and a 2/3 or 3/4 pot bet is more optimal. By the river, though, we’ve got some options that depend a lot on the specific type of opponent we’re up against.

vs random passive player - overbet river

vs sticky player - small 1/3 pot or 2/3

With such a small bet on the flop, his continuing range should be wider than if you had bet $40 or something similar. So I would for sure consider this board a decent 3-bet barrel bluffing candidate.

If you make it $80-$90 USD or something on turn, you should get a good idea of his reaction to that sizing and then decide if you want to triple barrel it or not. You are probably not drawing dead either way (J for straight), and unblocking diamonds is good here to get folds on a non-diamond river.

Pretty sure that theory says to go big on the flop on a board like this though.

Pretty sure you shouldn't though.

I think we should be betting this flop with a 1/2 to full size pot bet. As played, I could go either big bet or give up. I’d rather bluff something like T9 or J9 (no diamonds) that bet flop and YOLO it 3 streets on good runouts.

With this board being so connected, I think most people calling for $20 are going to call for more, and lower PPs and random crap with some equity are already folding for $20.

I just don’t think we should be betting a lot of hands here, so I’d rather size up when we do.

Flop size is fine. Double broadway boards tend to be fine to range bet small IP as the preflop aggressor. And on boards where a flopped straight is possible we usually don't size up too much.

Range betting is going to auto profit with every bluff on the flop. If you bet 1/3 pot and he folds more than 25% of his range, you're printing.

PRE - if the CO is stationy, I think I probably just over-limp with S1G's like T8s. A raise isn't likely to get him to fold many better hands, so we're not denying much equity, and just bloating the pot.

FLOP - 1/3 pot c-bet seems pretty standard, but I could see checking back. Usually I'd say he's capping his range when he flats, but I'm not sure with this guy, on this board.

TURN - I would be barreling the brick with thick value, and some bluffs, for a small size, but probably not our specific hand. I think I'd check-back and give up unless we spike a J on the river (but hopefully not the Jd).

Yeah, he could be calling with a flush draw, but he's probably not folding his flush draws on the turn. We're not blocking any of his 1P or 2P combos that continue. We're only partially blocking his flopped straights.

I think this guy just has a ton of KX here, and he's not folding unless the river is a diamond. If we check back turn, and the river is a diamond, he's likely to bet his flushes, but check with the rest of his range, and we can just bluff him out of his shoes.

The thing about this V and this board is that he's really not that capped when he limp-calls pre and check-calls flop. He could have all the JT, all the KQ, K9, and Q9, all the 99, all the A9, all the AJ, all the AT, and a lot of flush draws. He could even have TT here.

When we raise pre and c-bet this flop, he's likely jettisoning 88 and worse PP's.

So, if we give him that range above on the turn, there isn't much we're folding out with a turn barrel, and even if we do spike a J on the river, we're still losing a lot or chopping a lot. We're just torching money if we barrel off on a brick, and he gets stubborn with all his 1P.

If he's just check-calling with value, we're just owning ourselves when we barrel off. If we check back flop or turn, he'll feel compelled to bet turn or river with his thick value, and check all his weak BS that doesn't like the run-out.

With AA, I'd probably range-bet for 1/3 pot. On turn, I'm probably barreling, but for a smaller size, and planning to check back most rivers.

reads on sb/bb?

i know overlimping vs 1 player is frowned upon but with a hand like this vs a station doesnt that make sense? i mean the hand is too good to fold vs loose passive, but you dont have FE either.

I would check back flop and as played check back turn. Take free cards to make a straight. This is a bad board to bluff on.