Flopped nuts shrivel up
$1/$2 game on a Saturday afternoon
Villain - Thirtysomething white guy with glasses. One of the toughest regs in the room, at least among those that put hours in at $1/$2. Studied player, buys in for the max, capable of putting a lot of pressure on. I have seen him elsewhere on the poker internet so I wouldn’t be shocked if he had an account here or saw this thread, which would be a first for me.
Hero - Thirtysomething white guy with glasses. Should have a solid image in general. I have some history with the villain. We played an extended session about 6 months ago that culminated with a 400bb flip where I 5b jammed AKo and he 4b-called JJ and lost. He has also played a bit of $2/$5 with my twin brother. I would think that he knows I am capable of both bluffing and betting thinly for value. I start the hand with around $450 and villain covers.
65cc
Villain opens HJ to $10 and hero defends bb.
Flop is 2s 3d 4d ($21 before rake)
Hero checks and villain bets $10. Hero check-raises $35. Villain takes maybe 20 seconds, appears to consider both calling and re-raising, and calls.
Turn is 2s 3d 4d 6d ($91 before rake)
The worst turn in the deck? Hero bets $55. Villain takes his time again and calls.
River is 2s 3d 4d 6d 6h ($201 before rake)
Hero? We have around $345 back. Feels like all options are on the table. In terms of earlier streets... I kind of wish I check-raised bigger on the flop, or even donked. Also willing to consider that this could be a fold pre-flop, particularly against a tough opponent.
8 Replies
I don’t see the appeal of taking a marginal hand to go hu oop vs a good opponent but I see it happen all the time. This is not a bread and butter spot and so many bad things can happen.
I think flop check raise is good. Turn I find a check for several reasons. It’s a 1 liner, our bluffs all got there and we need to give him some rope. Sure we can extract value from a hand like an overpair with a diamond but we can get also get a hand like AKcc to start a 2 street bluff.
River I check as well, hard to get paid off and getting raised is terrible.
I don’t see the appeal of taking a marginal hand to go hu oop vs a good opponent but I see it happen all the time. This is not a bread and butter spot and so many bad things can happen.
I think flop check raise is good. Turn I find a check for several reasons. It’s a 1 liner, our bluffs all got there and we need to give him some rope. Sure we can extract value from a hand like an overpair with a diamond but we can get also get a hand like AKcc to start a 2 street bluff.
River I check as well, har
Your point about pre is well-taken. In my process of trying to tighten up my pre-flop range, I tend to focus way more on whether I "can" play some trashy suited hand versus whether I "should" play it. I didn't really think about folding pre- until after the hand, which is pretty dumb. I think am taking this spot against a fish every day, though.
And noted RE: the turn as well. I didn't include it in OP but I was strongly considering check on the turn in-game and agree that it's probably a better line against an opponent that can/will bluff. Later in the session I saw him float a small flop check-raise with an off-suit ace hand blocking the NFD, so that stuff can be in his range as well.
Yeah, I would never call this preflop, but most people in a 1/2 game would. Also, like x/r on flop, and would check the turn and the river as played.
I would bet my entire range on the turn for a small size (20-30% pot). This turn is really good for you, most of your bluffs get there and you need to push your equity advantage. Checking allows IP to check back a lot, and betting too large isolates yourself against their flushes.
Same thing on the river, you can always go for another small bet. He's going to have all the overpairs with a diamond here, and you don't want to just check and let them get to showdown.
Instead, if you make a 10-20% psb, he needs to call with at least some overpairs - otherwise you can just print money by taking the same line with your bluffs.
on a turn like this where his range is overpairs and flushes, you want to bet a small amount because
1) you get called by overpairs
2) you lose less when he has a flush.
I would bet my entire range on the turn for a small size (20-30% pot). This turn is really good for you, most of your bluffs get there and you need to push your equity advantage. Checking allows IP to check back a lot, and betting too large isolates yourself against their flushes.
Same thing on the river, you can always go for another small bet. He's going to have all the overpairs with a diamond here, and you don't want to just check and let them get to showdown.
Instead, if you make a 10-20%
This was more or less my thought process on the turn -- I can bet my whole range for small, he will xb a lot if I check but still can't fold a lot of overpairs to bet -- but once I decided I wanted to bet, I didn't take long enough to choose the right size and ended up going 60% pot instead of, like, 40%, which is what I had in my head. Stupid mistake.
I really like the idea of using 10% on the river. One thing I haven't seen people suggest yet is the possibility of XR or B3B bluffing our hand with the boat blocker. The 10% bet retains that possibility.
Thanks again for the input. Posting results behind a spoiler tag.
Spoiler
In-game I decided that I could bet small again and still be called by enough overpairs to be profitable. Unfortunately, I made another sizing mistake and went with $95, which is basically half pot instead of the block size that I was looking for. Villain thought for several seconds and then called. I said “straight!” quickly and started to turn over my cards, but villain fastrolled Ad7d for the nut flush.
I am very surprised that he didn’t raise this hand on turn or river. In hindsight, the bigger river bet may have worked to my advantage in that he was able to put me on enough 22, 33, and 44 to only call. We talked about this hand very briefly afterwards and he indicated that we would have jammed on a 2, 3, or 4 river, but didn’t like that the 6 unblocked my flopped sets and blocked my flopped straights.
PRE - looks fine.
FLOP - I'd check-raise to an obnoxiously large size, like $80 or $100. You're making it easier for V when you x/r to 3.5x, only around a PSB.
TURN - Think I might just check-call here.
When we bet 1/2 pot after check-raising the flop, I'm not sure if V is going to raise his flushes, so I wouldn't necessarily think he's capped when he flat calls. It's also possible he's calling with some over-pairs with a diamond in them.
RIVER - Tough decision. Our hand seems too strong to turn into a bluff by betting big, yet not strong enough to check-call a big bet.
From V's perspective, we could have all the flopped sets / rivered boats in our range. I don't know if he's going to fold a flush, but he probably won't call a bet with worse than a straight.
I think checking to check-fold is okay, if we just don't think he ever bluffs or bets worse for value. Checking to check-call seems pretty dicey.
We're probably winning if he checks back, but not always. he could have a flush, or occasionally maybe a higher straight (7d5d) that doesn't bet this run-out.
I sort of think we want him to fold, and the only way to get him to fold is to jam, but I'd only do it if we think he's capable of making a BIG laydown.
Most players, even good players, just aren't capable of folding flushes here, so I'd probably just check and hope he checks back.
