3 bet pot, line check and bet sizes?

Since the River J doesn't change much (unless he has JJ), I'd probably size up in order to try to get more money out of AK/AQ/AJ. Villain having AA seems highly unlikely, and KQs should only be calling the turn with KcQc.

Your best size looks like it's specifically targeting KK/QQ...or are you trying to tempt Villain to c/r with worse?

no. bet the flop 1/3. nobody 3bets pf here and then cf's the flop. he is cbetting his air and AK, and checking with with his JJ-KK and weaker Ax to c/c the flop.

once you check the flop i think you can go bigger on the turn because i dont think much of his range is folding.

river i think you can go $200 and get looked up by most everything that beats the J. if you get jammed on that sucks and i suppose it becomes a card counting exercise of AJ combos vs JJ/KQ combos and pot odds.

When he checked the flop, my gut was telling me he had a big pair did not like the A.
And my turn and river bets were targetting KK/QQ. Maybe that's too obvious and makes it easy for V to fold to an obvious river value bet if he is holding KK/QQ.
It's probably not good to let my live read influence me so much, and on the flop I should just play against his full 3-bet range.

As he tanked on the river, I was thinking I would probably call a raise here, and losing to a set of jacks was a possibility.

I don't mind the flop check, especially since you may have a nitty image and just pulled a super powerful move by 3! from the sb.

However, if you also sensed his discomfort after you bet, that goes a long way to helping to define his range--which now likely consists of PPs or marginal suited aces.

We don't want him folding decent PPs on the flop if he might be willing to bet or c/c the turn.

Grunch:

I think the flop check is ok. A fairly small bet, less than 1/3 pot, would also be okay. Check might be better here.

When he checks again on turn, I think I might size up a bit on the turn. Unlikely he's calling without Ax or a good draw, so may as well target that part of his range for value.

River bet sizing is tricky. When we go small like this, our line looks weak, and could induce raises. I think it may be better to go larger, or just check back. It will suck to bet small and get raised huge.

ETA - I think if he 3B pre with Ax, he's not folding the flop to a large bet, but a lot of opponents will fold all their lower PP's if we bet big on an A-high board. A big bet on the flop would just be targeting his Ax and lower sets, but that's a pretty thin range to target for value.

Betting 75 on flop makes it easy to get all in by river. Check is ok too, I think about of players are going to delay cbet hands like KK and A5 if we check.

I probably bet the flop, but I'm OK with the check. He can't continue with a whole lot that he 3bet checked, but a small bet as if you are taking a stab might work. Turn bet is good. I size up the river to about $200 for value. If he's calling $140, he's calling $200.

Like others mentioned already, I think go larger on river for value. Otherwise I think the hand is fine.

What I start to think about though is, do we have any bluffs here and if so are we betting them the same way?

QsJs/KsJs come to mind blocking the KQ and JJ and unblocking his KK/QQ a bit. Maybe 88/99? I might look at this spot in PIO and see what bluffs we have at equilibrium.

Anyway, if we decide that we do have some of those bluffs we might go with a larger sizing on turn and large sizing again on river ($150+ on turn, $400+ on river)

Not saying we necessarily need to have bluffs here, but as we move up in stakes I think it's important to consider.

Open to any thoughts on the potential for bluffs here.

Cheers

Re-looking at this...

Hard to think V is 3B'ing pre and then checking three streets with a hand that beats ours, unless maybe he's doing this with KsQs, but that's just one combo.

I'd mostly be putting him on a lot of AX, that will probably call a decent size river bet, especially if he's got AK or AQ with the K or Q of spades, or AJ.

From V's perspective, we could have started a bluff on the turn, when the BDFD appears, and now we're just barreling. We could also have some AX and be trying to push him off a chop.

I don't think it makes a ton of sense to bet small, targeting KK/QQ, because V is probably folding KK/QQ to almost any size bet. I think it makes more sense to size up, to target his AX combos.

I like preflop.
I like flop check. You're doing this with weak Aces, medium pairs, Tx etc which is a lot of your range.
Turn sizing looks OK to me.
Size up a bit on the river. Doesn't have to be massive, but you want to get calls from all Aces including the strong ones. Also don't want to go so small that you induce a check-raise bluff, although that is probably a very minor consideration.

V folded on the river, which is what got me thinking and posting here.
How did I flop a set in position in a 3-bet pot and get so little value...it happens.

He probably had QQ or something. Not going to get paid much in an Ace-high board at the best of times.