JJ in 3-bet pot OOP heads-up
2-3-5NL 8 handed
Hero looks tight, nitty?
Villain a sloppy middle aged white guy, fairly regular, always grumpy looking, and appears to be tilting a little today as he is very quickly on his 2nd buy-in. V starting to have a very high VPIP raising first in most hands with a rare limp.
V in CO opens to $20.
H in BB has JcJs and makes it $80. V calls.
Flop ($160) As 9s 6c
H bets $120.
V calls.
Turn ($400) 3d
H checks.
V bets $200, and has $310 behind. H covers.
H???
I think I messed up and bet too big on the flop. Should I have just checked? I bloated this thing and now it's hard to stay in the pot.
8 Replies
pre is good. id check the flop and see what happens. as played fold the turn.
Just check flop. Your c-bet is way too large. As played just fold turn.
As you know, c-bet is too big. Go half pot or check. As played, fold.
Agree that checking flop is best, especially as you're 250bb effective preflop. It gives you the opportunity to call if villain has a tendency to over-stab when tilted. If betting flop, 30-50% is better (and it should be considered a value bet, btw).
Preflop, in theory you should probably mix in some calls, but raising is completely fine.
I am cool with the cbet, but much smaller, like ~30% pot.
With a small cbet otf, I would barrell again this turn.
When such a big flop cbet gets called, we are in a tough spot.
On the one hand, I am afraid we have condensed V's range around AX a bit too much; on the other hand, checking this turn is almost equivalent to turning our hand face up, so an aggressive V will be incentivized to bluff a lot.
Overall, I'd probably lean towards a sad fold.
I think on the flop I would cbet if villain has a tight range preflop with his call, but if he's tilting and has a wider range I'd check and allow him to bet. As played on the turn - he eliminates the middle of his range that we're ahead of by betting, so it's a mix of better hands and bluffs. There's just way more Ax combos here than flush draws and even flush draws have some equity. I would fold.
According to the math (would've been nice not to have to back calculate) the SPR to the flop was 4ish? Any large bet is setting up a commitment shove over two streets. A96FD is not THAT connected. I'm betting like 1/4 pot here - so like 40$ maybe 50$ with a lot of my range.. actually JJ might be closer to a check because of SDV. After that I think turn is the real decision point. non-spade face cards I probably drop the hammer along with some bricks like this with a lot of air. But yea I think your flop sizing does nothing but fold out worse/get called by better. So AP I'm folding.
Why are you betting so much otf? Way too much. Bet 80 at the most. Ace high flops are one of the best flops to cbet after we 3bet, so I prefer that instead of a check but that's just me (as usual)
As played just fold. He's already committed all his money I don't see him folding at this point (or aceless).
