The assumption that mucked cards are unknown cards is simply untrue
I know how generally, everyone assumes mucked pre flop cards are unknown cards,
however that is simply untrue.
I do have some knowledge on mucked cards for example in a 6 handed table where everyone mucked except me and villain, I can probably know that no one mucked AA,KK,QQ,AK etc.
Even assuming no one mucks pairs 22-AA, the odds between an ace, and king is higher than 2-3 since AK far less likely to hit the muck than 2-3. I mean, I’d be fine with even saying 100% of the time AK isn’t folding pre flop without action behind.
This has to mean that chasing one of those cards for an out, is different than chasing 2,3,4,5,6,7,8 because those cards have much higher probabilities of being within the cards that went into the muck and won’t be appearing on the turn or river.
I think generally, it is more likely that higher cards will appear on a flop, turn, or river, when most people muck quickly pre flop and you go heads up.
Anyone ever take this into consideration? The odds may be very small, but I think constructing some kind of auto muck ranges for everyone and always factoring that into bluffs, calls, and draws might be helpful.
5 Replies
Just to add an additional question, suppose you factor in that no one is folding AA pre flop in a 9 handed table.
But everyone other card type is unknown and a potential fold (including KK).
You go heads up, how much likely is an Ace going to show up on flop, turn, and river, with you knowing the card type AA is never fold pre flopped amongst the 7 other players vs. other cards?
Odds of an ace appearing must be higher, how much higher?
it's called the bunching effect and yeah it does actually have an impact.
your odds of flopping a set can shift from like 11 to 14% which is considerable with the right card removal.
it's also worth picking up on timing tells on a muck and trying to pick up a read off players that mucked.
there are a lot of regular players who don't give off tells generally but who do give off tells when they're no longer in the hand and see they would have made a monster.
Lots of useful info/visuals about the bunching effect here: https://www.holdemresources.net/blog/car...
it's called the bunching effect and yeah it does actually have an impact.
your odds of flopping a set can shift from like 11 to 14% which is considerable with the right card removal.
it's also worth picking up on timing tells on a muck and trying to pick up a read off players that mucked.
there are a lot of regular players who don't give off tells generally but who do give off tells when they're no longer in the hand and see they would have made a monster.
Thanks,
Any idea how I even start to incorporate something like this into my game?
I mean, so I know no one is folding AA pre flop, how should that affect how I play KQ on a j10x board?
How do I construct a range of muck hands and use that to calculate odds of hitting a draw? It’s easier if I know all aces are live, but I don’t know that, I just know a range of aceX hands would be not hitting muck/less likely to hit muck.
Thanks,
Any idea how I even start to incorporate something like this into my game?
I mean, so I know no one is folding AA pre flop, how should that affect how I play KQ on a j10x board?
How do I construct a range of muck hands and use that to calculate odds of hitting a draw? It’s easier if I know all aces are live, but I don’t know that, I just know a range of aceX hands would be not hitting muck/less likely to hit muck.
the difference is not overall so large that it majorly affects how you play hand to hand, but you do notice it over time.
usually it only amounts to like half an out more of difference. in a spot where mucked card removal affects the probability of what cards are left in the deck you can probably spot or subtract half an out accordingly. but I wouldn't overly adjust how you play.
