Casino bad beat at its all time high 230k
Quad 10s or better to qualify two whole cards must be played. It's never gone this long without hitting. Do you ever continue drawing for a straight flush when you know your opponent has quads just to try and hit the legendary bad beat.
I've hit one before with winning hand for 25% payout of $35,000 at another casino when it was aces full of jacks but it wasn't for nearly this kind of money or this hard to hit. Any thoughts on this?
5 Replies
It's a math problem, right? Suppose you have 1 card that pays you off $55k minus tips and taxes. What's the most you'd pay to draw?
Similar question for when you potentially win one of those royal flush jackpots. Regardless of the pot, you'd be willing to pay up to $x to see another card
It's a math problem, right? Suppose you have 1 card that pays you off $55k minus tips and taxes. What's the most you'd pay to draw?
Similar question for when you potentially win one of those royal flush jackpots. Regardless of the pot, you'd be willing to pay up to $x to see another card
I guess that's a good variable to account for so say it's a 200$ pot your open ended with a straight flush draw your opponent opens for 70$ on turn.
Board is 10c 10h 9h As
Hero holds Jh Qh
gotta remember the probability is not a function of time and is irrespective of previous iterations. TTTT doesn't care that it's 230k.. He doesn't get beaten easily.
Forget the pot. It's basically meaningless to the math. You are drawing to one out, so you have about a 2% chance to hit it. Your call is +EV as long as it is less than 2% of your share of the bad beat (less taxes and tips). So if winner gets 25%, the winner's share is 57.5K. Lets estimate the taxes and tips eat up 25% of that , so you're looking at taking home $43,125. That means it's +EV to call in that scenario as long as the bet is under $862.
Any EV you have in the pot is just gravy.
That said, that's just for that exact scenario. If you're OTF and you just have fractional outs (one out to having one out), the bad beat EV is way down, like to $17, and it is the gravy and the pot is the important part.
