Monster Draw against good pro - genius or spew?

Spew, mainly due to sizings.

You overbet a turned overcard, and then he full pots raise that, and now you're jamming full-on 2 times the pot over top of that?

Villain over-completed the BB and smooth called a flop that smashes the blinds' ranges with 3 players left to act behind them and then (and I repeat) raised an overbet, so I'd say they rep the entirety of the universe.

They need to be capable of making quite enormous folds for a 2x PSR to even be in consideration here, which is a big ask considering those big hands have outs against the nuts, there are draws out the wazoo, and the stakes are big enough it may be hard for your body language to convey that they should fold a set when you're sitting on J-high.

i would assume you have like 0 fe ott. like you might, but you're uncapped leading into the field and you overbet the turn, just doubt this is a spot people decide to attack. would rather just take the immediate odds with some hope of implied

It's 10/20, but straddle is on with 4 callers? Flop should be 200? Can you clarify pot sizes?

Sorry it was 5/10 with $20 straddle flop would have been $100. Turn $180.
I will try and edit the post.

It seems like a spew because I think the pro will have 97o pre with just 10 to complete and at least the HJ is clearly a recreational he can go after.

I think pro probably iso raises 88, but he can have 97s, 97o 74s, 66, 55, Q8s, Qs5s, 8h6h for value. Potential bluffs he could have would JsTs, Ts9s, maybe T9 without a flush draw, 87, 76, 7sXs, 7hXh, 6hxh. JTs might iso pre, maybe even T9s.

I do think that pro can flat the nuts on the flop a lot with recs behind, and knowing he looks insanely strong if he raises. He would want someone left to act to raise with their draw or 2nd best hand. On the turn, you are betting a little over pot, which gives the pro the greenlight to raise despite a turn raise looking insanely strong. He is going to get called or raised so often after someone bets pot, and he is incentivised to get as much miney in as possible.

Correct pot size is 1130 before we shove, 550 for us to call, and we are shoving 4,240 total. Equity of about 29% when called if he calls off with sets, 2p w/fd, and 97, so we need to fold about 58% of his range under those assumptions to break even. I don't think we will get this because of how much 97o he can have.

Another thing we have going against us is how many 15 out draws there are on this board. 7X, T9, J9, hh and ss varieties makes a lot of combos.

Villain tendencies and our image are important too, but I think the overwhelming problem is going to be 97o.

I'm not in love with leading flop. We didn't get as good of a price to complete, so 97o probably won't be in our range while BB and straddle can have it. They can also have 86o, 65o, 87o. Anyone could have 66 and 55 and no one should really have 88. This isn't a board that clearly favors our range, so I don't know that we really want to start leading into 5 people from the SB with a bluff. I don't mind exploitatively betting when we do have value on the flop though, although check raising is also an option. Our hand may be strong enough to check call the flop since we have 2 overs, a gutter, 10 turns bring a FD, and we pick up open ended on Tx and double gutter on Qx. We improve on so many turns which can either allow us to check call or check raise the turn.

As played on the turn I think we have the equity + implied odds to call the raise, but it's not an amazing spot.

Even though it's a pro, I think we have to recognize that there are spots where they are just going to have it too often and bluffing is just not going to be profitable.

You have a lot of combo. draws here, like JT/J9/T9 (both hearts and spades) 8h7h/9h8h/7h6h/Ah7h, and I think the J-9 combos. are the worst to go to war with. Yes, having a 9 is better than not, but having a 7 is better I think as is blocking sets.

On the other side I'm not sure what your value range is for this line but I doubt you have much QQ, so at best like 88 and 97s pure? Lots of people not really loving the 3bet turn (putting in over 40x flop) with 8x8h and 9c7c either (although V really doesn't seem like he's folding with this line, so 9c7c might shrug and do it not thinking more than that).

oh. if you want to put in action light somewhere, i would rather raise pre than stab the flop

i think u can open rip spades for sure otr if you b/c turn but im less sure about board pairs - you are likely supposed to in theory bottom of range, unblock spades, but it feels to me like that will be less effective than fc river in practice

wym value range. the range is 97. the pot is 4 ways limped and spr 50+ and both players (bb for sure) probably have offsuit combos of straights

Mlark has a great analysis here. I would just add the following:

What can V raise turn with here that he wouldn't have raised the flop with or opened in the first place? He raises most of his sets on flop and would've preflop opened all his overpairs.

He has more 97o. Can he have Ah7h or As7s? Yes I suppose. But his raises here are such a narrow range and they are all ahead of us, including 7h6h, 8h7h and slow-played sets. I fold to the turn raise and don't look back.

This really isn't a tough question. You'd have been better off raising pre-flop than calling. The play there was either raise or fold.

You're in a 5 way pot against people who limped in who could quite literally have anything.

Is overbetting the post 3x when your opponent has shown clear aggression and you have no clue at all of what he might have? Yeah, that's a terrible play. How much did you lose playing last year? You're really asking if 3x an aggressive opponent all in on the turn with J high is a good play?

By the way, you have no idea of who is a professional player or not. There are some sure who'll talk about it, but plenty who are actual professionals and realize they want to seem as amateur as possible.

I think shove is spew. So is flop bet. Would call the raise as played.

Im not saying, H's play is good, but i think comments so far seem to narrow V's bluffing range far too much.

Note: H odds range from 29.5% to 45% subject to V's holding.

There is a good % the pro is iso raising pairs (88 & 66) particularly pre flop. Tgese hands can be heavily discounted.

How many sets/two pairs, straights does V ever have after just flatting a small bet on the flop on a very wet board (with others left to act)?

A. Not many.

H blocks the 9 so further reducing the likelihood of a straight.

V potentially floats flop with all spade flush draws, all 7 x, and all Ace and King high backdoor hearts, 5x, 6x, 8x, all overcards with a spade, and all over cards with gutshots str8 draws. Thats a lot of combos.

In position V is more capable of making a move with a worse draw or a one pair hand containing a 7.

The all in raise by H will fold out which if V's range? A. Everything bar 97, and sets, both of which have to be heavily discounted to some extent given the action.

I made a pretty detailed post. I went into pokercruncher and counted combos and I did the math to see what percentage of villain's range range needs to fold for is to profit. Even if we give v a very generous amount of bluffs, I think you're going to have a hard time showing that we are folding enough if his range out to profit.

You are underestimating how much 97o villain will show up here with. V is 2nd to act 5 ways in a flop and is incentivised to bring in rec players or let someone else raise the flop, not scare everyone off when a relatively small flop lead does not scream strength. If v has:

Calling (22 combos)

97s (3 combos)
97o (9 combos)
66 (3 combos)
55 (3 combos)
Q5ss
86hh
74ss
74hh

Folding (32 combos):
Q8s (2 combos)
A7hh, ss
K7hh, ss
Q7hh, ss
J7ss
T7hh, ss
87hh
76hh
75ss
A5ss
54ss
J9ss
T9 (12 combos)
JsTs
74s no fd (2 combos)

Here, about 59% of the combos are folded, so we have just barely the fold equity, our EV is $47 from our jam.

But turn raises are notoriously value heavy. It is generally more likely that v traps flop and raises turn for value than flats flop with a hand they could bluff raise flop, but then decides to bluff raise turn, especially when they are in position with a ton of equity. Even if we weight the raise-folds here at just 90% the likelihood of the value combos, v is now folding 57% of the time and our EV is -$13 from our jam. I don't know the exact liklihood that we face a bluff vs a value combo here, but I am confident directionally the turn raise is skewed more towards value, and I would bet it's a bigger disparity than just putting a 10% discount on the bluffs.

Another data point I would consider is that this is a LARGE turn raise. It is nearly full pot. If it was a bluff, why not make it 600? 650? I know it's a pro and they shouldn't be imbalanced with their sizings, but it happens all the time. Turn sizings of 50% to 2/3 pot overwhelmingly are used by live regs for bluffs imo will bets closer to pot are more skewed towards value.

Turn is an extremely wet board with 2 2-flushes and a possible made straight. Lots of combo draws possible. I don't like potting it or considering checkraising. Playing a combo draw strong is better on a board that is drier. Your draw is not that strong on the turn and I think you overplayed it.

Villain's play calling flop and repotting turn is odd on a wet board where not much has changed. This is a limped pot, so he can't have QQ. I wouldn't think of shoving though.

Mlark

Thanks for your analysis.

Lets say you are V.

How often are you flatting flop with 66, 55?
How often are you flatting with 79?

This analysis is very lopsided.

All of this needs to be contextualized by how wide ranges are *overall*. You’re putting your entire stack in with a 55:1 SPR going to the flop. Villain has already put in 15 times the initial pot (the equivalent of stacking off in a HU single-raised pot). His range is already narrow and it can narrow significantly more facing your 2x PSR.

Sure, villain doesn’t have all 12 combos of the nuts, but villain sure as hell doesn’t have all combos of backdoor K-high hearts when he calls a 1/2p lead with 3 IP players LTA and then makes a full pot raise over a turn overbet with a bare 2nd nut flush.

To your credit, your analysis is pretty spot on if the action where $30 OTF, $100 OTT raised to $300 by villain, and you’re justifying rebluffing by making it $800 total. In that case, I could both see more combos in play up to the point of your decision AND you’re getting a good enough price on your bluff that villain does not need to fold a full majority of the time for it to be effective.

I think it’s telling that you’re discounting two pairs as part of your defense of rebluffing. You NEED for him to have two pairs to justify going for a humongous bluff here. Those exactly the sort of thin value hands (relative to the range width at this juncture of the hand) that need to make up a sizable portion of his range. The very reason I think this bluff is spew is BECAUSE I think it’s far-fetched that he would flat flop with 65 only to decide OTT facing an overbet that he could get value with a full pot raise.

i think its missing the forest for the trees to do elaborate range construction for villain. it seems like this got though bc of post / defensiveness but if your reason for doing this is he's a 5/10 pro and didn't raise the flop and you have a 9 blocker i think you are going to torch an obscene amount of ev in many other nodes. i think a large percentage of the population have 0 raise / folds ott, and i think worrying about combo counting or balance or whatever is going on itt in a limped pot scenario that v almost certainly has not played / encountered / studied / strategized is lol

Maybe he picked up a heart draw on the turn to go with a straight draw and/or pair. That is the only thing that makes sense why he called the flop and raised the turn.

I would flat all of these, including the offsuit combos of 97o. After this many people have limped behind, my iso range would be close to an UTG opening range. With 97o I am getting a great price to complete in the bb and I know at least the HJ is a recreational who will make big mistakes postflop.

With 66 or 55 I am literally calling 10 and the pot will be 100, getting amazing odds to hit a set and with 5 players, the chance that someone else hits something and I get paid is higher.

Wish I was bankrolled enough to punt off $4500 on a big draw bluff. If your willing to punt like that because I do see this as a punt. I really wouldn't have bothered to put this post in here regardless... fold or call this is more gamble then logic.

I've got to ask was this a brag post? Or did you just need a pat on the back that you made a big play...

I mean flatting the flop bet, not pre-flop!

You are seriously only calling a flop bet with a straight or a set on a super wet board 100%?

On the flop it would depend on several things. I am more likely to flat if the players left to act are recreationals who I think will make huge mistakes. Especially if they will raise weaker hands or semi-bluffs, or they will be non-believing we flat with a monster and lose a huge pot later on. I am more likely to flat if I think your range is fairly weak. I am more likely to raise if I think your range is strong and you tend to call down a lot.

Also, unless I have some history with you that tells me you have bet-folds on the turn for slightly over pot, I am probably not going to try to bluff you on the turn.

Lol, here come the temporarily embarrassed 5/T players