Monster Draw against good pro - genius or spew?

To be fair, it really took me quite a while of thinking through this to decide that I didn't like the play overall. In the moment, it is hard to do that kind of in depth analysis. I didn't read your post and instantly think it was a punt. I actually thought it could be winning until I realized how much 97o villain could have pre and how much he can flat the nuts on the flop.

You should be applauded for actually sharing a very interesting hand with a really creative play most players would never have in their repertoire. Occasionally this kind of play -2x jamming over a raise - is printing when the circumstances are slightly different. You can't really do all of that analysis at the table. The best you can do is take some hands like these and analyze the hell of them away from the table so that when hands have similar elements, you will have some mental shortcuts to help you make decisions in the future.

Good players punt. You can't always get it right. You made an insane play. You had some good insights. A lot of times just calling the flop, someone will be capped. However, there were some cases here where a pro is very incentivised to trap that are going to be some exceptions to the rule you want to think about for future hands. The 9 blocker is good, but when you start thinking he could have 12 combos of 97o rather than just 3 combos of 97s, it starts to become less relevant. I would also take into consideration in the future that turn raises are a lot more underbluffed than flop raises, big raises are a lot more underbluffed than small raises, and in position raises are more underbluffed than out of position raises.

But overall, I don't think any of this means you're a bad player. I think you're asking the right questions. Everyone has room for improvement. But not everyone equally takes time to reflect on things and has the ability to follow through and change their playing in the future based on what they studied away from the table.

Raise to turn OB feels really really strong, but also it's double FD. You said V is a capable regular and if he's capable of bluffing I think turn 3b with really strong combo draw is fine. It's ~100bb with straddle on. I feel like Straddle would've raised 88 preflop, 66/55 is on the border.

Blinds: $10/20/40
Hero: SB (J♥️ 9♥️)
Villains: BB, UTG, HJ, BTN

Preflop ($30):
limp, call, call, call

Flop ($100): 8♠️ 6♠️ 5♥️
bet $40, call, fold, fold

Turn ($180): 8♠️ 6♠️ 5♥️ Q♥️
bet $200, raise $750, raise $4240

Total pot: $5370

Generated by pokerhandhistory.com

I would need a lot of convincing to believe that betting this flop is good. And I don't think we can get overly dependent on analyzing Villain's range pre-flop here. The bottom line is that a competent player just raised the turn after you barrelled the flop into three other players and continued on the turn. He is doing this even though you very easily could have flopped huge.

There is a chance that Villain is raising with a hand that has equity, something like Ah8h, Ah6h, Ah7h, but I don't think he is doing so often enough to make this profitable. And you obviously would be hating life if he called your overshove with those hands.

I mean it's a play i get it a big brass balls one but man I can't see doing something that risky for so much money. I guess that's why I stay in 1/3 and seldomly 2/5. This is the type of play I could see doing in a tournament, but a cash game forget about it.

I think the main reason this hand is more spewy than not, is not just villain's range; it's that Hero can make profitable shoves for both values and bluffs on a river if he calls, and that will be a much tougher decision for villain than against the turn shove. I assume villain will not only call most 2p+ hands correctly, but is capable of calling weaker than that some of the time (such as a 8x that does not believe you).

I'd rank this as closer to medium spew than major spew though, as there are plenty of good poker reasons guiding your decision and Hero still has equity no matter what. It can even be upgraded to minor spew if villain exact holdings are revealed (but that is the ceiling for me, its still a losing play).

I would just be concerned with our PSB on the turn (or maybe it was an overbet) and he makes a 3.5x raise which is massive. I would be surprised if that sizing is balanced - furthermore we block hearts and are uncapped betting multi way on a connected flop. We exhibit all the makings of a very strong range yet here he is with a massive raise OTT. Wouldn't expect him to bluff a spot like this the way he did - and if he does show up with some low equity bluff like bare T9 he should be highly exploitable in the future.

Dude, WTF?

Why are we limping in from the SB? Raise or fold. I honestly don't care which. I guess if we're prone to do something sketchy, we should get it out of the way and raise big pre, rather than punt post.

Why are we leading out into four opponents with "guess what I got" ranges, when we're first to act, on this insanely wet and dynamic board? I get that we've got two overs, an ISSD, and a BDFD, but that's also what's commonly referred to as "no pair". It's not even the nut no pair.

Even if we make our straight - it'll put a one-liner on board, and likely kill the action. If we make our flush, it isn't the nuts. Why not just check and see what our opponents want to do, rather than build a pot in a reverse implied odds scenario? Maybe we'll get a free or at worst a cheap look at the flop.

Why are we over-betting the turn? I see that we pick up some additional outs, now double-gutted with the BDFD, but we still have no pair. Why are we betting like we flopped the nuts and are trying to protect our hand from being out-drawn?

What in tarnation are we doing jamming over V's raise? He's repping the exact hand our line was repping, except he's actually likely to have it, since he just called pre-flop, closing the action, and is now raising over our over-bet.

This is first-time-black-out-drunk-on-tequila level of spew.

Yeah, not crazy about the flat call with the straddle although I guess this being a time rake, it's probably not bad.

The flop bet is bad multiway. You just have two overs and a gutshot. That's too weak of a bluff against 4 players.

As others have said, I don't think villain's range is capped, so neither overbet makes sense.

RaiseAnnounced's Law: For every bad bluff posted on LLSNL, there are at least 3 screeds about it that are worse than the bluff itself.

It's almost as bad as inventing terms like "TINO", and posting them with zero explanation.

He didn't open limp. HJ originally limped and btn limped behind. Limping behind with J9s is fine here.

Think the play is fine if the V's range is more transparent. But given it's a multi way limp, V could have all the sets and 97 suited or off suit combo. Not very wise to just 3bet jam with only one card to come, against a likely strong and uncapped range.

Since it's a straddle, it's not a exactly a limp. It's like calling a mini raise from the SB to boot. I don't think that would be alright in a raked game, but in time rake game, it's probably ok.

Calling a min-raise in the SB w J9s is profitable against a bot raising 20%+ in a raked game.

It gets a little sketchy the more cold callers there are, but seeing as how the “raiser” has ATC and the “cold callers” are making garbage VPIPs with all sorts of -EV nonsense (compared to a bot’s cold-calling range that is very carefully constructed), I would not say this is a worse spot than facing a minraise from a bot HJ opener.

Of course, you all make valid points for why you’d fold hands closer to the bottom/middle of your SB complete range like J6s.

I mean, a limp in a straddled pot is slightly different from a limp in an unstraddled pot. In particular, recreational players don't always appreciate the differences between raising first in an unstraddled pot, calling a raise in an unstraddled pot, and calling the straddle in a straddled pot. So occasionally they show up with stronger hands, and maybe they fold some hands they might have limped in an unstraddled pot because to them a hand might be worth $10, but not $20.

I think it depends on the exact rake structure. Flat drop in a low stakes game is brutal in a limped pot. In a 5/10/20 either it is time raked or the take is not as bad.

The fundamental reasons for wanting to limp behind in the sb are:

1. HJ is a rec player since he limped first in and as such he is going to make mistakes postflop.

2. Button is capped since he didn't iso.

3. J9s is a pretty strong hand. It's not super clear to me that it is strong enough to iso raise here though. Depends on our fold equity and HJ continue range.

4. We have a slight discount being in the SB.

We're not absolutely printing by limping behind, but given the circumstances I think we eek out a little EV in playing it.

I do usually iso J9s over 1 limper when I am in position. Maybe not in the earliest positions. OOP with multiple limpers it gets dicey though.

i think we have sufficiently beaten this one into the ground. cant wait to hear op got it through and showed the jh

Definitely don't raise pre here - would be terrible being in the worst position postflop with a hand that can be dominated especially on Jxx flops.

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