Hand reading fails me. What does this donk-barrel-call-donk line rep?

Hand reading fails me. What does this donk-barrel-call-donk line rep?

1/3, 9 handed, $500 max buy-in, Parx Philly Friday night. Rake is 10% up to $5 with $2 promo drop.

PRE -

EP limps (UTG or UTG1). He's starting out around $645-ish.

This is the main V. He's white, maybe mid 20's, just sat down with around $300-$400 maybe 2-3 orbits ago. Never seen him before this, so most likely not a reg, or at least not in this room. He won a big pot not long after he sat down, either with a big bluff that got through or hero calling a big bluff that didn't. As I'm typing this, I can't remember for sure which it was.

Too soon to assign him a detailed read with any confidence, aside from saying he appears capable of either running a big bluff or hero-calling a big bluff, and isn't scared money, but otherwise probably isn't very good when he's open limping from EP.

Hero raises to $20 with A5dd in MP. Hero is MAWG running over the table with around $2k in front of him. Should have a winning image. Haven't shown any bluffs since V sat down. Have shown a lot of winning hands, even when opponents folded, so the rest of the table may think I'm on a heater and just always have it.

Two calls from loose-passive rec-fish in LP, folds back to V, who also calls. Four to the flop with ~$80 in the pot.

FLOP ($80) 843rb with one diamond, giving us one over, backdoor flush and inside straight draw.

V donks for $25. Hero calls. Other two fold. HU going to the turn.

TURN ($130) 843rb Ks, completing the rainbow of suits. No more BDFD, just the one over and an ISSD.

V bets again, for $45. Hero decides V is almost certainly FOS when he continues to barrel here, but for such a small size, and we can rep a lot of KX as the PFR, so we raise to $125 (not going too big, just in case he isn't actually FOS). V thinks for maybe 5 seconds, then calls.

Assuming V will check in flow on the river, hero is planning on jamming on any Q, J, T, 6, 4 or 3, sizing down for value on an ace or 2, and giving up / checking back on a K, 8, 9, or 7.

RIVER ($380) 843rb Ks 5c, giving hero 3rd pair.

Hero forgot to have a plan for what to do on a 5, but it doesn't matter. V doesn't think more than a few seconds before stacking up some chips and donking for $225, leaving himself about $250 behind.

I can't remember if I've ever seen this line, and in game, I was very surprised. He donked the river for half his remaining stack, but it's just under 60% pot. Like, what is this line repping?

As hero is tanking, he looks over and notices that V is staring intensely at him, apparently trying to look confident / strong, usually a fairly reliable tell indicating weakness.

I didn't think he'd have a flopped set or 2P when he bets small and then just flat calls my raise on the turn Ks. I wouldn't think 8x would continue to barrel on the Ks turn AND flat call my raise AND donk the river on a brick.

The 5 on the river doesn't change anything, if we discount either of us having some sort of inside-straight draw (76? A2?) that gets there, or somehow arrives on the river with 85 or 54 (just 1 combo each of 54s and 85s). Are 76, A2, 85 and 54 taking this line - donk flop, barrel-call turn, donk river?

Maybe he started a semi-bluff on the flop with 65. But does anyone in his spot river 3rd pair and suddenly decide to turn it into a bluff by donking for 60% pot (1/2 remaining stack)? Without thinking more than a few seconds?

I'm guessing most here will say this is a trivial fold. Maybe it is. But I was having a very hard time putting V on a hand that made sense for value. To be fair, I was also having a hard time figuring out what his bluffs would be.

We beat 65 and worse 5x, like 52 (both open-ended on the flop). We beat hands like A4 and A3 with BDFD's, if he's donking out with bottom or middle pair + BDFD on the flop. And we beat all his random air-balls that are just spazzing. I figure he's got 2 combos of 65s, 2 of 52s, 2 of A4s, and 2 of A3s, so 8 value-bluffs, and maybe some weird air.

We lose to 8x and better. I figure he's got 3 combos of 98s, 3 of 87s, and 3 of A8s - 9 total. If we want to give him 85s and 54s, that's another 2 combos, for 11 total. Do we want to give him 76 and A2?

We're being laid 2.7 to one on a call.

What should hero do?

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10 January 2025 at 07:09 PM
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31 Replies

5
w


I would fold. Guessing he has 85 or K8 and he is putting you on AK.


So far everyone who wants to continue on the flop has seemed to ignore that the flop is 4-handed with us being in the worst relative position. And that also means the guy who led out has led into 3 people, not just 1. I think it is fine to fold here. Even if we think the flop bet is usually weak, which may very well be true, this still isn't a good spot to attempt to apply pressure. We'll have better ones, especially as long as the fish think we're going to play straightforwardly against these leads, which folding now will reinforce.


I could call the flop with the gut shot and the bdfd. But when V donks the turn K, even with the small size, I give up and fold.


by docvail k

Curious what the stats are when they donk flop, bet turn, get raised, just call, and the river goes check-jam. I would expect they fold river at a very high rate facing that line.

I don’t have that exact line but I was looking at Donk-Flop-Bet turn-Check River and they were folding 88% of the time vs a jam in one Database of about 10 million hands (small DB but huge folding frequencies)

I was looking at some preliminary live MDA and it looks like BXB performs much better as a bluff than XBB. It looks like population doesn’t believe you will check back strong hands OTF.

As a default I think we should be putting all value in XBB and all bluffs in BXB and only change it if our opponent adjusts.


by CallMeVernon k

So far everyone who wants to continue on the flop has seemed to ignore that the flop is 4-handed with us being in the worst relative position. And that also means the guy who led out has led into 3 people, not just 1. I think it is fine to fold here. Even if we think the flop bet is usually weak, which may very well be true, this still isn't a good spot to attempt to apply pressure. We'll have better ones, especially as long as the fish think we're going to play straightforwardly against these l

Relative position matters a bit less in practice than theory because of how wide the fish are but I think folding flop is fine too.


i think its too much overthinking to call the river with your hand although i get why you'd want to. am also maybe more inclined if flop is hu but i think you're just going to get beaten by someone doing something semi illogically with a depolarized range and its less likely to me he leads middle / bottom pair 4 ways as opposed to hu (where he could conceivably have pair and fd ott)

haven't read the comments but i wanted to point out "hero can represent a bunch of kx" idk if thats true when you call the flop with 2 people left to act behind u. id continue on the flop though vs this sizing in some manner


i will say 5 seems like a bad card to have otr

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