1-3 MP with AK
9 handed 1-3 most chip sizes are around 300-500$
Hero stack size 780
Villian in CO LAG drinking bourbon mid to late 40's stack size 920 doesn't play horribly post flop and normally continuation bets has shown down things like k9 q10 and j8. Opens pretty big around 15-25 range is wide but not insane typically opens large from position.
UTG opens for 15 UTG+1 calls
Hero 3! to 75$ AK dd
folds around to CO who calls with a raised eyebrow folds around to see flop.
Heads up
pot size : 184$
7c Kh 9h
Hero opens for 105$
Villian looks at me some more tanking for a bit calls
pot size : 394$
turn 3s
Hero bets 255$
villian looks around thinks for a minute checks his cards three times and jams all in.
Hero?
7 Replies
Yuck. This feels like a semi-bluff, but there are definitely sets and chops in his range as well. IDK how I'd play this in game, and would likely hate either option. I guess I call, since we only have $345 back and pot was already $900 before his shove, making it only a bit over a 1/3 pot raise. We only need to be good 22% of the time, and I have trouble building him a range that doesn't get us that. I mean, even if we only give him sets and the other combos of AK, we have 23% with our chop equity. Add in one combo that is pair+FD and we're laughing
FWIW, I think your bet sizes are a bit too big here, especially OTT.
Now with 345 behind I would call. Seems fine.
I prefer betting smaller on the flop, 25% is my go to but 33% maybe even 40% is fine. It's easy to remember thst as the preflop 3bettor, you can frequently bet a small size on king high boards with most of your range. But than one way to play the flop. You could also play with big bets and checks. And balance isn't super important.
Mlark, so you are suggesting that I had gone even less then $75 like possibly $35 or something in this scenario? Even though he most likely doesn't have a pocket pair here over 10's if he does have a pocket pair could be broad way suited connectors. I would think with the sizing this bet normally takes down the pot which is what I was looking to do especially with AK out of position and a flush draw.
Thinking back though checking the turn was the best option here and if he bets into me depending on the size I either just call or 3! Very hard to get away on this board with top pair and top kicker even when the flop has two H's and I don't want a draw to be cheap here if that is indeed what he is doing. If on the other hand he has a set 7's or 9's he's gonna pretty much get paid off regardless of the cards unless a heart came any 7 or 9. I cant put him on aces, kings, queens because there is no 4! pre flop which is certainly in his playbook.
Also pre flop he's getting a good price thinking maybe he will get a multiway with a Kx off knowing he wasn't going to get a caller from the button as that guy had his hand on the cards to muck em before it even got to him. Thinking he was getting top position maybe called with a king rag and smashed the flop..
I would love to try putting this into a solver if I had one that could do some figures outside the hand play itself.
Agree with post flop bet sizing comments. Your goal of betting is not “to take the pot down”. It’s to extract value from worse hands and to deny equity to hands that have some and will fold to a bet.
AP I call. He’s clearly bad cold calling a 3 bet with an EP raiser. He has no 2 pair and the 3 is a complete brick. Most players raise sets on a K-high two-tone board. I may fold if I had AhKd. But unblocking the NFD is good for you.
Thinking checking turn is best is results oriented. It just misses value from his most likely holdings after calling flop (worse kings and FDs). And if he peeled with a hand like 88 and folds turn, that’s fine. Hard to get another street OOP.
In that situation call. There's 900 in the pot at that point. The guy does heve bluffs here. Sometimes drunk people do this stare you down this as they think you're soft or something.
That said, what you did before this left you kind of vulnerable since he plays any two cards. You need an overall strategy to deal with that.
Why are we c-betting the flop for over 1/2 pot, when OOP? Think I'd check to let V stab at it, or just c-bet small, like 1/3 pot, to see if V wants to raise.
The problem with c-betting 1/2 pot on the flop, and then barreling for 2/3 pot is we haven't given V a chance to define his hand strength with his actions, so we're just guessing what to do facing this turn raise.
We don't beat much, if anything in his value range, and it's hard to see what his bluffs would be, other than flush draws, or maybe some combo draws.
I dunno, man. Baluga theorem says we should re-evaluate the strength of a one-pair hand facing a turn raise. I'd think that's especially true when we 3B pre, c-bet 1/2 pot on the flop, and barrel for 2/3 pot on the turn.
I don't like it, but I think I might fold here.