2/5/10 line flopped set, line check

RIP it in. We can go smaller the flop too, like 20, then overbet turn and river get stacks in.

Funny I have seen this spot work out where on the flop a small bet gets floated by KQ with a Q on turn and river for backdoor trips to stack the flop caller.

Sometimes we're beat, but we might still get called by a non-believering hand like 8x, 64, 33, or hand like 88 or 99 which likes to see the second A on the river.. A7 and A3 are your main concerns (maybe 87 that didn't raise flop). but it is what it is. You may even get called by a hand like A6 or A4 that floated the float with a gutter and rivered trips.

bet 500. puke if he shoves

All in.

I mean...what do we think competent V in straddle has here?

If he had 2P, a set, or a straight, wouldn't he raise turn, at least some of the time? How much Ax does he have in his range here, the way this was played?

And what are we repping here? Wouldn't we be checking back on the ace turn with a lot of our over-pairs?

If V had any sort of hand, he might block bet from up front. If we just rip it in after he checks, or we just bet big, what are our bluffs? It's hard to think he's beating much, if any of our value. How can he call off a big bet here, the way this was played?

When V checks, he's probably planning to check-fold to any bet, or he's going for a check-raise. I might bet small, like half pot, and hope he jams.

I just don’t think we are EVER bluff-shoving this specific River, so I think that sizing is a mistake. I’m betting 40%-pot (and obviously calling a shove).

Ordinarily, I'd like a 40% pot river bet, for value and with some bluffs. Here, 40% pot is $260, not much more than our turn bet or $235, which looks weird. That's why I'd size up to around half pot, $300, leaving $600 behind for him to shove over top.

Alternatively, we might go really small, like $60 or $100, to induce a spaz-raise.

I would raise more than 2.5x pre raise to like 35 or 40 so the STL doesn't defend his whole range, it's easier to narrow him down that way on later streets too.

As played I've already decided I'm going broke here, if he has 24 or 64 we're getting paid off. He's so wide so he can easily have A7 or A3 but if he has it he has it, we're at about the stack depth that we can put it all in (120 eff bb's). He just called an over bet ott so I'm betting big again to around 525 and snap calling if he jams.

I like a $300 bet. Looks as if you "have" to bet, but don't want to lose too much if he calls/shoves. Not folding to a shove, but given his description I'd almost hate to see him shove. I think shoving lets him get away from an A or straight. Basically, he's loose/passive -- let him sigh call, don't scare him away.

Oops, never mind. I read it wrong. Looks as if caller is competent reg. I like going a little bigger -- maybe $450/$500.