2/5 - Bluff Becomes Value Becomes...???

Betting pot is a mistake, check raising is a mistake. Jamming is a mistake.

Those are mistakes because you would be more or less representing a flush, while having trips, essentially turning your value hand into a bluff.

I feel bet 1/4 - 1/3, then fold is a beautiful play. Check call a decent bet and less is probably good too. Check call might be optimal because you don’t know him, and the king is a terrible card for you, now a pair of queen doesn’t want to call you as much, and the main draw came in. Best case scenario, king killed your action, worst case scenario, you think you're ahead but you’re not.

Even though in the void A2 with trip deuces is a massive hand, the board makes it so that the other player doesn’t want to pay you off when you got him, and for sure has the best hand when he thinks he does and commits money to the pot, making this spot a relatively low value disastrous river, making thin value bet into fold or check an excellent play.

Pf is obv horrible.

Flop is good.

I think turn is ok though 2/3 probably better.

River I think 250 is good.

This guy gets it.

Terrible river to bluff and terrible river to value. I don't know about 1/3 pot because imo it looks even stronger than half or full because the larger sizings are more polar.

Look at this way. If the turn was an offsuit 3 and the king of spades hit the river, HERO will be firing. The 2 "should" be inconsequential since QQ raises pre, quads is very unlikely which leaves only 77 for value.

With Villian's passivity, I can mostly rule out a boats on the turn. So I'm thinking this screams top pair which takes us into the meta game.

If AQ, is V ever calling anything here? Small bet/check best.
If KQ, AA, is V inelastic? Larger bet
If KK, Smaller bet/check, or larger bet and fold. I mean, are we inelastic to a raise here???

I can't really range any other hands. I can see merit with every line.

Pre is spew but you know that.
Flop, I think you can make a case for all 3 options.
Turn is good.
River, I think small (~150) is good targeting KQ, AA and perhaps even AQ, with the plan to fold to a jam since big river raise is so rarely a bluff at these stakes.

Interesting spot.

With no reads on V, I'd probably just check, and pray he doesn't bet huge. V has all the KK/QQ in his range. Our range is pretty capped at 7's full, flushes, bottom trips, and maybe 2P.

If you bet, a halfway decent V isn't likely to pay you off with worse than top 2. Even top 2 is a very loose call, the way this was played, on this run-out. You don't want to bet, for any size, knowing you can never call a raise.

If we check here, we can call a reasonable size bet, up to 75% pot, but even that is pushing the limit. Hard to think what value hands V can have that would bet big after all the strength we've shown, and which we actually beat.

FWIW, I don't actually hate the call from the BB preflop. I do hate the flop x/r. Check-calling the whole way seems like it would be a better line.

Preflop garbage, hard to evaluate flop since I'm just never in such a spot but I guess I'm on board with the x/r. Personally I prefer polar sizings on the turn so I'd go ahead and pot here. When V calls we can either jam river or bet 2/3 and hope he calls with Qx or worse. Players at LLSNL are just typically too skiddish to pay off overbets so I lean towards 2/3.

I think 1/2 to 3/4 on river and mainly folding to a raise as that would be really underbluffed. Hope to get a crying call from AA, KQ.

And yes fold pre.