5/10/20 3 Street Bluff, 5k effective

goofy raise size otf

small turn bet accomplishes nothing

I guess river is the best decision made but ya a decent hand reader is going to be mighty curious vs this line overall

What's a good flop raise size? Wouldn't I be raising this size with all of my sets and what not? I agree the turn bet should be a bit more polarized and pot or overbet sized.

Uhm...wut?

Let's look at this again...

Given the previous action, I think we can check back here.

You raised flop (sort of small raise sizing, btw). You were mostly repping a set or 2P, maybe with some flush draws for balance, and perhaps an unlikely fast-played straight. V calls, probably with an over-pair, possibly with a draw of his own.

You barreled turn HUGE on a high disconnected brick. And he called, again. At this point, we can deduce the following:

1. He's probably not on a draw. He probably has a pocket pair, 88 or better, more likely TT+, in fact this looks a lot like TT exactly. He likes his hand and he doesn't want to fold.

2. He doesn't believe you flopped a set or 2P, and certainly not a straight. He's most likely putting you on a draw, which definitely did not get there yet.

It's worth noting that your table image may not be the best here, after making big calls that were wrong. You may appear tilted.

Your most likely draws are XXss and 86s of whatever suit, both of which missed. Your most likely 2P combos are 3 combos of 75s, and 2 of 53s. Then there are 9 combos of flopped sets. But your less than 3x raise sizing on the flop looks more like a draw and less like 2P or a set.

You didn't flat call pre on the BTN or raise flop with TT, so you don't have top set. You can't have a flush. You probably don't have a straight. Your jam isn't repping much for value. It looks like a missed flush draw.

You actually rivered a pair, so you have some showdown value, enough to beat ace-high and 44 if you check back, though those are pretty much the only hands you beat here, and it's unlikely he has either of them.

You can't beat anything if you jam and he calls, and he will almost certainly call with 88 or better when you jam, the way you played this, and when the only draws that got there were inside straight draws you most likely don't have when you raise flop and barrel turn huge.

Would you play your value hands (sets, 2 pairs,) the same way?
I think many players will check behind river with the possible straight out there (villain could easily have A4, 44, 98) so when you bet you represent either the straight or air.

FLOP - as you said, you can call. I don't mind the raise with 86cc here. Raising 3x his bet is somewhat "standard", but I could see going bigger, to $500-$600, when we're 250BB deep and bluffing with a hand that has zero showdown value, and probably still won't even if we make a pair.

TURN - Over-betting would be fine if you picked up equity. You didn't. Since you raised small on the flop, and because you're still drawing, I'd probably continue to bet smaller on the turn, probably around 1/2 pot.

Ideally, your smallish raise size on the flop looks like a straight with 64, and a small bet on a brick turn looks like you're just milking V for value. If he thinks we're full of $hlt and raises, that sucks, but at least we didn't shovel heaps of money into the pot before we have to fold.

On the river this is a basically a mandatory bluff if you think villain ever finds folds here. A lot of your other bluffs got there and a 6 should almost never be good.

Unless villain is a huge station or you have a particular read a out his flop sizing, I think you played river well. I am curious how light he called you.

Villain should not have many if any leads on this flop, so his large sizing is a big concern. I would just call in position with our decent equity. Turn again with an open ended we are in the danger zone where we would like to realize our equity by checking back. Our main size should be larger, pot or overbet. And we have better bluff candidates. 8s6s, other spade draws, 66 with one spade. Even hands like 76s, 54s, which are pair + gut shots or 87s and 97s which block top set make good bluffs. It may seem odd to bluff top pair on the flop, but it is kind of a merged bet that can get worse to call, has a lot of equity, and should start folding out overpairs on the turnif we got 150% pot. If you think villain will over call overpairs though, obviously don't do this.

I ran the sim on gtowiz using the elite sub with rake-free configurations/ranges and I think all your comments are spot on actually. Flop villain should be checking range, and vs his big sizing we want to mainly call, and if we are raising we should be using a smaller size, closer to 2x. Hands that we raise on the flop include stuff like A5, A3, 67, 64, K6, K8, 33-88 and all our sets at mixed frequencies. The solver actually doesn't like to raise at all with our exact combo. The Td turn is effectively one of the brickiest cards possible, so makes sense we should be going with a geometric sizing - overbet 110%, mixing in some 98s, K6, sets, straights, etc, random straight draws. River is a pure bluff as played, since i'm jamming all my sets/straights.

I think raising flop to 5x-6x size is pretty ambitious. Ranges are wide since this is an SRP, and guy just bet 3/4 into 2 opponents, and he could easily have sets and straights, the same hands we're repping. if anything I should be raising smaller - this is all backed by the solver. On the turn, I don't think it makes much sense to split our range and bet a smaller size with bluffs that have less equity, as we mainly want to bet big with our value

Yeah, I also looked at GTO Wizard, just looking at 6 max straddled 200 straddles deep, but of course that is heads up, and yeah, virtually no leads from villain. There are a lot of raises when you force the lead from villain, but it is really weird, like all the raises are less EV than the calls, so it kind of looks like a precision error. The node is too obscure and probably shouldn't happen, so exactly what the solver tells you is of questionable value.

Unfortunately this is just a spot where we should never bluff this villain. It may have been hard to know that beforehand. He may be exploiting since the flush missed and your hand kind-of looks so polarized even a set might not do this on the river. Just remember this guy doesn't fold overpairs for 250 straddles if a flush draw missed and hopefully you can cooler the **** out of him when you have it.

I just hate calling pre with anything against a cut off open

I´m pretty surprised the solver ends up in that spot with K6 or K8 (would have guess low freq 3bet and mostly folds), 67 and 64 (same, but even lower freq 3bets and almost pure folds) and A3 and A5 (high freq 3bet and almost never flatting). Just a guess though.

We should be pretty wide button vs cutoff in a straddled game with no rake when deep, so our hand is probably fine.

I think pre this is the spot where it’s fine to go a bit too lose, deepstacked on the button, so no biggie.

Postflop I think raising and blasting off this hand is probably ok but there are factors here in play that can not be analysed. Perhaps there was some inconsistency in the sizings that you used relative to earlier hands you played. The overbet jam on the river might narrow down your perceived value range a lot. Or maybe you just do this kind of play too often.

This thread can’t answer these to questions for you. Ultimately what matters is what your range looks like to this opponent and so the art here is to understand what your range looks like to him.

And study the hell out of the spot in gtowiz so you understand the baseline frequencies, combos and sizes

So...maths...

If he bet $150, and you raised as much as $600, that would be 4x, not 5x-6x. Raising to $500 would obviously be less than 4x.

I would think this flop favors your calling range on the BTN more than his CO raising range. He should be checking this flop a lot.

I'd rather raise flop with 86ss. Your 86cc is the next best combo. But you can also just call with both of them, as you said, which I think I'd prefer to raising, when we don't have the FDFD to go with our OESD.

But if we're going to raise flop, I'd think at this stack depth, and with no showdown value, we'd want to go at least 3x, if not slightly more, so I would probably go $500 or $600, but I'd be fine making it $450.

So, I'd prefer just calling flop, rather than raising, with 86cc. But if we raise, I think we should go at least 3x. If we do that, then I could see using a polar bet size on the turn. But since you raised small on flop, and because you didn't make your hand or pick up additional equity on the turn, I wouldn't go polar with my bet size.

My reasoning is that your range has a lot of draws, and not very much thick value. When V calls your flop raise, and the turn is a brick, whether or not he calls the turn is probably going to be more dependent on what he has and what he thinks you have, not what size you take with your bet.

And a small bet on the turn can actually look scarier than a big bet, after he calls flop, because on this board, V can't have very many strong hands that can call. A small bet looks like you're trying to keep his range as wide as possible, whereas a big bet could look like you're just trying to buy it.

What? If anything I think this is more of a 3b than a call given we're 250 bb deep and IP - 3b value increases as stacks increase IP.

As for the hand - I think it's important to know how villain plays overpairs on flops like this. If he's checking boards like this his range becomes very narrow on the river, as I would expect his bare FD's to fold the turn. We really need him to have all the overpairs OTR here to bluff - it's really a disaster if he rarely gets here with say JJ.

Yeah I’d three bet this a bunch. Not flatting much of anything