1/3 - Middle set vs. Regular facing c/r on Turn
Villain (SB) has been in the card room with me all day (5+ hours), started at my table, went to a 2/5 that opened, played in one of the tournaments, busted, came back to table. Other than the above, basic read is that he likes to play pots and have seen him play draws aggressively (when he's gotten there and showed them down), but I've never seen him showdown anything truly out of the ordinary.
115BB ($320) effective stacks.
Hero is UTG+1 with 5c5h and raises to 12, BTN calls, SB (Villain) calls.
($36) Flop Qd2h5d
Villain (SB) checks, Hero bets 15, BTN folds, Villain calls
($66) Turn 3c
Villain checks, Hero bets 40, Villain raises to 127, Hero ???
12 Replies
You can probably do anything but fold. The board is really bad for your UTG+1 range, so it's pretty weird for you to bet big on this turn.
Seems unlikely that he'd have A4/64 (although maybe both combos. with diamonds), can be raising 33/22 for value too and maybe has all the suited two pairs.
Would be more likely to call if I had any read he'd bluff river bricks, but with river SPR of less than 1 when you call it might be better to just shrug and go with it.
Likely doesn't really matter a whole lot between call and raise, but given what's left and there are some bad river cards for you and villain I'd probably just get it in now.
Check flop. Hope BTN stabs at it and SB calls, so you can check-raise.
Turn - jam over his raise.
I fold preflop. I simply don't think small pairs are profitable in EP, but that's me. If I can't bring myself to fold them, I'd much rather limp in with them (can possibly call a single raise + callers versus won't be able to call a 3bet, they play fairly horrible OOP UI in bloated pots postflop, a raise actually reduces our IO especially at non-deep stack depths, a raise often won't narrow the field to where we have FE against better postflop, etc.).
One of the biggest arguments for raising small pairs preflop (imo) is that we can create SPRs where we can now make it a little easier to play for non-short stacks postflop. In this case here, we created an SPR of 8.5, so we can now play for stacks (our goal) with some largish early bets setting up a reasonable river shove. Board is slightly drawy and there's a reasonable overcard for someone to have, so I would start off with a large PSB. My guess is a lot of people will be on board with our small bet, but I'm not a fan of it and think it kinda defeats the whole purpose of preflop (also note that if he just calls our 2/3 PSB on the turn that creates a $146 pot with a far too much $250 left to have to overshove the river for).
I'd probably try to correct my flop sizing by sizing up on the turn to a PSB (which will leave us with a slighly reasonable PSB+ bet for the river).
Always a little concerning when a straight gets there and we're checkraised, but he can still have worse value and an aggressive guy could still have semi-bluffs. So I jam now. If we hadda limped to a very high SPR we could think of playing more cautiously, but due to preflop we've committed ourselves for stacks at this SPR, imo.
GcluelessNLnoobG
With this little behind just get it in. Peg v as a massive fish in the future.
Need better reads, this is any2 spew call preflop and flop. Maybe super tilted from busting the tournament, or whatever, but more likely he's just terrible and we should know.
Hmm. I'm still adjusting to playing live. Care to give a few quick tips for how to build reads on players / what you would be looking for here?
Here is what I posted about him in the OP:
Villain (SB) has been in the card room with me all day (5+ hours), started at my table, went to a 2/5 that opened, played in one of the tournaments, busted, came back to table. Other than the above, basic read is that he likes to play pots and have seen him play draws aggressively (when he's gotten there and showed them down), but I've never seen him showdown anything truly out of the ordinary.[/b]
"likes to play pots" is an understatement if he's playing 64o from the SB. This is a whale.
Preflop is bottom of range but OK. I disagree with illiterat about the board; I think it's a pretty safe board for EP range and one we'd bet big if heads up (wouldn't we go 3 streets with a whiff?). I don't mind small but would probably size up a bit myself here targetting (and unblocking) Qx. I don't mind the suggestion of a check-raise either.
I slightly prefer jamming over the turn check-raise to just calling, although calling isn't bad.
Quickly developing reads at live poker requires careful observation, and in my opinion, a basic understanding of human psychology, as well as just being able to quickly size people up and understand / identify different personality types based on common traits.
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Thank you. Bookmarked. I will be referencing this regularly
The river shove is probably good as played. There is a problem with reads though. He 3!s unusually small and then checks the low flop. In retrospect, villain was trying to get action for his aces. If he cbet, OP would probably have folded. It is not just OP's specific hand. If villain cbets, OP may fold most of the time. If OP doesn't have a pp, flush draw, or some low cards that connect with this flop, he probably folds. He folds even more to a cbet and turn barrel. There is a problem with getting pulled in into making range bluffs for 200xBB stacks.