€2/5/10 painful decision vs solid reg
First time playing with villain, reads so far:
- appears to be a very solid reg, good bet sizings in all spots, didn't see him make any bad calls etc.
- not many of his hands reached showdown but the ones that did were very well played (overbets for thin value etc.)
- has been quite aggro, but since I haven't seen many showdowns, don't know if he's just having a good run or if he's getting out of line
UTG (Villain) - Straddle
UTG +1 - Limps 10
HJ (Hero) - Raise to 45 w A♥J♥
folds to villain, who 3bets to 160
folds to hero, calls 115
(Pot 337)
Flop A♣Q♦9♥
V bets 160
H calls
(Pot 657)
Turn Q♥
V bets 250
H calls
(Pot 1157)
River 2♠
V bets 750
H all in to call - ?
Would appreciate feedback about each decision
5 Replies
Even IP I would strongly consider folding to the 4x 3–bet from a strong UTG V.
We are often dominated and don’t make flushes or straights very often with less opportunity to semibluff draws in a 3-bet HU pot when SPR will be <4.
AP I am calling flop.
Turn I probably call this sizing after picking up the NFD. But I’m not thrilled about it on this paired board and V barreling (he’s not taking this line with KK, AT). I think AK is his worst value hand at this point. And I think if we bink the heart and stacks go in, he is boated a lot.
River is a clear fold.
This looks OK. Turn reduces combos of AQ/QQ.
River is now a fold...perhaps a more interesting decision would be if the river card was an Ace and the straddle jammed.
As an aside, I always struggle to range people when they 3bet from the BB/straddle when they could just call closing the action. I'm usually inclined to think they are weighted towards strength (compared to a SB 3bet) but I never know how to read it.
PRE - initial open seems fine. Calling the 3B from the aggro V in the straddle with AJs is somewhat marginal. Folding feels nitty, but is probably correct here, unless you are prepared to put pressure back on V by raising a flop c-bet or turn barrel, both with your value hands and some bluffs.
FLOP - Calling a 1/2 pot bet with TP, decent kicker, and a BDFD / BDSD seems fine. Our hand isn't quite strong enough and his bet is just a little too big to raise yet.
TURN - His less than 40% turn bet, when the BDFD appears, seems odd to me. I'd be tempted to jam when we pick up equity, and can rep a lot of strong hands he's less likely to have.
RIVER - Fold.
EDIT to add, regarding the turn...
His super-nutted value is limited to 1 combo of AA, 1 of QQ, 1 of AQs, 3 of 99, and maybe 2 combos of KQs, assuming he's 4B'ing pre from the straddle with 99 and KQs. He also has 8 combos of AK, but none with a flush draw. And he'd probably barrel some portion of his KK/JJ/TT and worse AX combos. He shouldn't have too many flush draws here, maybe just KThh.
A lot of that range is going to want to bet bigger on turn when the BDFD appears, either for value / in case a scare card appears and you shut down on the river, or for protection, or to continue with his semi-bluff. His small bet suggests a weaker value hand or a low-equity draw.
When we open and flat call the 3B pre, call his flop c-bet, and jam turn, we can have 11 boats, 12 trip Q's, and probably only 6 AXhh hands for semi-bluffs, so our jamming range looks super-strong. Our AJhh is already beating all his worse AX, KK, JJ, and TT, and our jam should fold out some of his AK.
We're only drawing dead against 8 combos in his range. Against another 8 (AK), even when he calls, we'll make our flush about 18% of the time. He might occasionally call drawing dead, with 1 combo of KThh.
He may fold 18 combos of KK/JJ/TT, and all his worse AX, but he might also call drawing very slim with those hands, if he puts hands like KJs/KTs/JTs into our bluff-jamming range.
But if we just flat call the turn, rather than jamming, and we miss our flush draw, he's going to be jamming the river with all his value that beats us, and most, if not all his value we beat, and we'll just have to fold.
Fold river. We can have KQs, AQs, QQ, 99, maybe AQo.
if you drafted all of the cards in the deck in order of least preferred to bluff catch the river, the Jh has to go 1 overall.
could see random way overdoing it on this board (doubt he's going for 3 w AK, doubt he cbets Qx for this sizing, is supposed to slowplay his v good hands some amount of the time either otf or turn) but like you have a bunch of good hands, call w them instead.
was going to say i dont hate 4b pre but his sizing makes it tricky to have a 4b fold range here that has any fe pre at all