2/5 line check
2/5 1500 effective
Villain is young Asian, plays pretty tight preflop and solid, havenÂ’t seen him get out of line
Hero is young white guy, plays tight preflop but got caught bluffing vs a fish a few times
Utg raises to 20
Utg +1 and utg+2 call
IÂ’m next to act and make it 100 with AQhh
Folds to UTG and he calls, UTG+1 calls, and last guy folds
325 - flop Q86 two diamonds one club
Checks to me and I bet 75, just UTG calls.
475 - turn 9c, xx
475 - river 8c utg checks again, I bet 250, and he goes all in for around 1200
Thoughts on how we both played the hand and what do we range him on, should I call or fold river?
Will post results later.
9 Replies
Raise a little less preflop, to 80. On the flop, hero’s bet of 75 gave Vs the pot odds and even better implied odds for a diamond flush draw. Bet at least 125, maybe 150.
Unless you have a read that V will make a massive river bluff with a busted flush draw, following a check raise overbet on a paired board with a back door flush that just came in, your TPTK isn’t good enough to call.
I call pre but that's just me. A tight under the gun raiser's range is too risky to 3bet him there, and since there's two more callers our 3bet would have to be larger than if it was heads up or even 3 ways, so instead of 3betting to 60 we have to 3bet to between 80 and 100 which would be really bad for us if the nitty utg player decides to 4bet us, then we may have to throw away a great value hand that plays well multiway. As played I'm checking back the river.
[quiet chuckle at hero getting caught trying to bluff the fish]
PRE - standard 3B. Size looks fine.
FLOP - could go either way with a check or c-bet, even with the semi-wet board and TPTK. Board favors UTG and +1's ranges more than ours, as the pre-flop 3B'er.
TURN - once we c-bet flop, I think we need to continue betting turn here, when the FDFD misses, but a BDSD gets added. I'd be over-betting pot here. It'll be hard for him to continue with anything worse than 2P, and he shouldn't have much 2P or better in his range on this board, when he opens UTG.
When you check back here with TPTK, it caps your range, and makes your hand under-repped, incentivizing V to donk-lead the river, both with worse hands for value, and with his bluffs.
RIVER - on a paired board, with 3 to a flush, we can check back here, rather than going for thin value, and risking a x/r.
V's line here is unusual. He's basically repping a boat with Q8/98, a flush, or trip 8's for value.
His pre-flop UTG open range doesn't have much 8x in it, and some of that range is going to fold on the flop, and/or donk-lead turn (like with 98s or 87s). When you check back on turn, a lot of the 8x range that remains is going to lead / block-bet the river, not go for a check-raise.
I would also think he'd just bet his boats and flushes for value here. Doubtful he's opening UTG and calling a 3B with Q8s, and I'm not sure if there are even any Q8s combos available here. He might open 98s, but I think that's just 2 combos here. So he's more weighted towards flushes than boats, and I'd think flushes would prefer to lead out than go for a x/r on a paired board.
In theory, when someone goes for a x/r as a bluff on the river, it should be with a hand that has some showdown value, in case the action goes check-check. Ideally, our check-raise bluffs would also block our opponent's thickest value, and / or unblock the hands opponents will fold.
The only hands that fit that criteria, that I can think of, would be some worse Qx holdings, and maybe some 9x - hands that block the boats in your range. He might have A9s or KQs here for bluffs - two hands that are strong enough to open UTG and call flop, but not strong enough to 4B pre or flat call your river bet.
As played, when you 3B pre, c-bet flop, check-back on turn, and then bet half-pot on the river, your line looks weak, and incentivizes him to raise as a bluff, with a hand that could have won if you checked-back, but now seems unlikely to win at showdown, and so he feels he needs to turn it into a bluff.
With that reasoning, I think I'd call it off, but I'd expect to be beat here at least some of the time.
What are the suits? Is QcXc possible?
Have we seen villain make big bluffs before? If no we can probably just overfold this spot on the river.
Seems like a pretty underbluffed line so I'd fold as played.
But I would size up pf a little and much bigger on the flop.
Turn I'm probably mixing based on feel and betting half pot if I do bet.
I think I also bet a little bigger on the river if I did check back the turn.
Pre I'm just calling. AQs is a good hand but I'm not sure its good enough to 3 bet an EP raiser. On the flop we have TPTK so I would bet 1/2 - 2/3 pot. If called I would bet again on the turn to get 2 streets of value. If called again I check back the river. Not sure that one pair is worth 3 bets against anyone other than a complete station.
I would call preflop. You can 3! light in a better situation sometimes. I would cbet larger. I know the theory is for small cbets now, but this was 23% pot. I don't think this is a good river card to value bet on. It is probably a fold as played, but good spot for him to make a play, as you rarely have trips or a flush.
I like everything except small flop bet (way too small) and the river bet. Take the showdown. Not sure what you expect him to call with? Tons of hands beat you now. I only bet if I expect him to do this as a bluff.
Preflop looks standard to me.
I'm ok also with the flop bet, although you might size it bigger.
What I really don't understand is the check ott.
With a BD flush coming, I am quite sure you should bet big, like close to pot. Theoretically this may even be an overbet, but overbets are so rare live (at least in my experience) ...
As played, river is probably a check back, and a sigh fold to his raise.
However, the real mistake is ott, imo.