Rate my bluff 1/2

What are you repping - 56, a floated JT, a set, 2p. All of these are in your range, but you didn't raise on a wet board on flop or turn, so he's probably narrowing you to a straight, but even a straight may raise given flush draw.

It seems like you have what we might think you have, a busted flush draw. Perhaps you get lucky and he just bins his AK, but I think he may look you up with an overpair. Also ahve you seen him make a big fold.

Getting lines from luz4ggro for christmas?

We aren't supposed to bluff river with diamonds in GTO land ... and I'd much prefer raising any previous street.

Assuming V believes you can have 76s here, and would just call flop+turn, it's kind of whatever. He very likely has an overpair, but maybe sometimes AxKd/AxQd really hoping you'll fold turn. Maybe KdQd for the lol river value bet. Feel like this is the kind of spot where I go for it with T9s and V says "I know you have me beat, but I'll pay you off"

A+ for sizing. You certainly committed to the bluff. I think it's a solid "B" spot to bluff; only because the board is so connected, not because your line makes any real sense.

Overpair probably raises flop, two pair raises flop, any set raises flop or turn, JT raises turn to prevent a FD seeing a river and to get money in while way ahead, 56 would prob bet smaller on River for value but you shouldn't get to the River with it, and 66 maybee floats flop but unlikely to overbet pot with the low straight

if villain folded you had the best hand

PRE - calling UTG's raise, IP with AJs, seems fine.

FLOP - raise. You have 2 overs and the nut flush draw, on a flop that doesn't smash his UTG open range. This flop favors you as the pre-flop caller, not him as the pre-flop raiser. You win now if he folds. He's very unlikely to raise. If he calls, you can barrel turn and check river, or check turn and bluff or bet river for value.

TURN - raise. JT just got there. You could have 99 or 2P here. You can't wait until the river to start a bluff with your missed flush draws.

RIVER - check. You missed. All of the strong hands you'd have here on the river would have folded flop, or bet for value or as a semi-bluff on flop or turn. Your bluff isn't likely to get through. You'll only fold out hands you were already beating - just worse A-high and K-high hands. We don't want to bluff with our missed flush draws. We want V to have the missed flush suit in his hand if we're going to bluff.

In theory we should avoid bluffs with a missed nut flush draw, but this board is so terrible for an UTG opener I don’t mind it at all. Particularly since this is very close to the worst hand you can ever have in this spot (the only worse hands you could arrive at the River with here are like KQdd or QJdd—every other hand folds preflop or has at least a pair).

And you picked the right size (we want to go big in spots where V can never have the nuts and we can).

So I’m fine with everything here.

Raising the Turn is a mistake cuz if V shoves we puke—we have to fold away a pot where we *had* a ton of equity.

Ace-Jack of *hearts* is a much better hand to raise the Turn with.

You puke, maybe. I don't.

We have no pair, just two overs, but we flopped the nut flush draw, and picked up an inside straight draw, on a board where V won't have very many, if any hands that are strong enough to shove, certainly not when he bets half-pot on the turn.

V should be folding a ton when we raise turn. If V just calls, fine, we have a ton of ways to improve on the river. If V jams, so be it, we can fold, and it wouldn't be a disaster, but we can also call.

If V just has an over-pair, he's probably not jamming. If he does, assuming he doesn't have AA or JJ, we have some pair outs, possibly all of them against TT, plus our flush outs, plus our straight outs. No matter what V has, we're never drawing dead here, with our hand.

Results:
V had 56ss. So that didn't go well. I had similar thoughts to most posters here both pros and cons but decided my range and nut advantage was so much better than his he would certainly fold AK/AQ and possibly QQ+.

Your OP asked what range we'd be giving V. My approach is to combine what I've seen opponents do with what I think they're doing, based on other factors, such as their age, sex, apparent playing style, etc. I think this hand demonstrates the danger in assuming every opponent is opening a tight range from EP.

So, now you know this guy will open UTG with middling suited connectors like 65s, not just premium pairs and suited Broadway cards. He may be AG, but I wouldn't necessarily call him TAG, more LAG. But what label we use is less important than just taking note of how this one hand affects the range we give him for future hands.

Next time we get here, with him raising UTG and you being +1 with AJs, we can 3B, knowing AJs is going to compare well to his UTG opening range. In fact, we can 3B this guy with just about all our AXs, KQs, maybe KJs, probably 77+, but definitely 99+.

When a guy flops a strong hand, there's not much you can do to win the pot without a strong hand yourself. It was just unfortunate that you happened to flop the nut flush draw, with two overs and a BDSD, preventing you from just folding flop or turn and moving onto the next hand.

It's worth reading the comments here, pointing out that we don't want to bluff the river with our missed flush draws. If we're going to bluff with flush draws, it's better to do it on earlier streets, and then give up when we brick on the river.

Against a V like this, my preferred line in this hand would be 3B pre, play a mix of check-back or c-bet on flop, play a mix of delayed c-bet (when I checked-back flop) or check-back on turn (when I c-bet flop), and value-bet river when we make our hand, or fold to a bet or check-back / give-up on river when we miss.

Let's say we 3B pre, and he called. He might go for the x/r on flop, or he might just flat call. If he goes for the x/r, depending on the size, we'll call or fold, but then fold to another bet on the turn when we miss, unless it's very small, giving us too good a price not to call. If he just calls our flop bet and checks to us again on turn, we'll just check-back. If we check-back on flop, he'll lead turn, we can call, and then we'll fold or check-back river when we miss, or value-bet/raise when we hit.

With the line I'm suggesting, we'll take the pot down pre-flop sometimes. When he calls pre, he'll only get one street of value post-flop, or at most two streets, as compared to how you played this, where he got three streets, including a huge river bluff.

I like a flop raise.

Good semibluff spot. Board favours our range. Good to fold out AK/AQ. Can likely fold out overpairs with a turn barrel. Enough equity to call a 3-bet.