1/3: TPTK facing flop donk bet 4-handed

Bet the turn!

River sucks, but once I check the turn, I probably call the river -- especially the insta-bet, which often means they were waiting to bet a scare card or they think you are weak because of your turn check.

I was a little confused about sizing the turn bet (if we bet 1/3rd pot, we open up villain to c/rai - if we bet half pot we're committing ourselves with TPTK - if we overbet jam we're only getting called by worse). All of this played a part in me checking behind. What's a good size here? Should I not have been so concerned with my SPR?

What range do you give this guy? It looks exactly like a heart draw or a straight draw or a weaker Q. I bet $125. I want him to fold or pay for his draw. If he calls, you can just sigh-fold to his river bet (and never show).

If he jams over your turn bet, you have a decision to make, but he's rarely jamming this turn -- it would be a really weird play unless he has QT (doubtful) or the incredibly lucky TT.

You know, you don't have to commit yourself even if you put in half your stack. Just top off and keep grinding.

I probably just jam turn. EZ poker.

3 is a pretty darn safe turn card. He’s much more likely to have a 3 if the 3 on board is offsuit instead of the T (ie he could have Ah3h). Otherwise, what 3x hands is he limp calling pre, donking and calling flop raise?

We have the best hand here and people don’t like to fold FDs, combo draws or top pair.

We may fold out some value targets but they are targets that will either give up on or bluff rep scary rivers. Given SPR and how wet the board is, a smaller bet sets up awkward rivers.

If you have compelling reasons for betting (in this case - value and protection) stack size awkwardness shouldn’t cause you to deviate to checking.

This is a helpful thought. I used to grind MTTs way back in the day, and I think the concern for "my stack" is a legacy hold over from that. I don't always think about the extra cash/chips in my pocket that I can just top off with. So...yeah - insightful. Thank you

I will add that 1.5 times pot is not really a crazy turn over bet. Also, given SPR considerations, you could have raised slightly more on the flop to set up a more standard shove.

Let's dissect the flop donk.

First - you say he's a regular rec, but in your opinion, is he a good reg or a bad reg? That matters to our analysis here.

Donk leads by bad players are usually weak top pairs or draws looking to set their own (cheap) price to chase. As the PFR, with a hand that beats weaker top pair hands, I'd usually be raising, to get value from all his worse 1P hands and draws.

In multi-way pots, on boards where the action could be checked through a lot, donk-bets with thicker value start to become a better strategy than check-calling or check-raising. So my first thought would be to wonder if V understands that, and is donking with a stronger range, like 2P or a set, or if he's just donking to "see where he's at" with 1 pair, or trying to draw on the cheap.

Once you raise flop and he calls, even if he has a hand like QT, the board-pairing 3 is a good card for us to barrel. It makes it less likely he was donking with 33, and all our over-pairs are now better 2P than QT. At this stack depth, I think I'd be over-betting pot, probably all-in.

So, our turn jam could be seen as a hybrid bet. We want to fold out QT, obviously, but we don't mind getting called by worse Qx, or Tx, if he's that loose. We want to charge his draws the maximum.

Even if the turn is just a brick, once we raise flop, and V calls, I think we need to barrel the turn for a large size. Think about it - if he was donking the flop with thick value, like 2P or a set, wouldn't be 3B over your raise, on this wet board?

As played, when you check-back on turn after raising flop, I think his bluffing frequency goes way up on the river, and we need to call down more.

But it's worth considering what our range looks like when we raise flop and then check back on the turn. It could look like we just have TP and got scared he might have QT or 3x when he called flop, or like we were on the flush draw, that got there.

When V insta-bets the river, that sort of pacing is often a bluff, but it can also be a drawing hand that just nutted up, and V is putting you on a worse draw.

Kind of sucks to be in this spot. I could go either way, call or fold.

do we consider something like Q3s to be a possibility here? it seems like a scary shove on the turn but people are discussing it.

This somewhat goes back to my question about hero's opinion of V's skill level.

First - there are only 2 combos of Q3s available here.

I wouldn't think Q3 should be played from the SB, certainly not as a limp-call, even over 2 limps from MP. If V was good, he'd probably be playing a raise-or-fold strategy from the SB, or realize he should fold once hero raises, even getting 3.7 to 1 on a call. If hero's been putting in raises pre, or has shown a propensity to squeeze in spots like this, all the more reason for V to fold pre.

If V is bad, he might be loose enough to get here with Q3, or T3, for that matter (1 combo of T3s available here). But if he had 2P, and he donk-led, I'd think he'd want to 3B over hero's raise, to get value from hero's TPTK and over-pairs.

Also, I'd think 2P would go for a check-raise here a lot. Hero didn't need to raise pre from the BB. He could have just checked his option. When he raises, he's repping a strong hand, and could be c-betting this flop a lot, with all his over-pairs, nut flush draws, OESD's, and top pair hands. We might expect V to check at least some of the time, hoping hero bets, either or both of the other players call, setting V up to put in the check-raise with a bunch of dead money in the pot.

I'd go a little larger pf.

I don't understand the turn check.

I'm calling the river all day vs half pot from a fish on this line.

It looks really unlikely that you are behind here, so I don’t think we should be too concerned about that possibility. What hands does villain have (that have us beat on the turn) that are likely to play it the way he did?

Checking also encourages villain to represent a flush when he doesn’t have it though. Maybe he could be worried we have the flush and checked the turn with a draw. But it puts us in an awkward spot on the river.

Raise bigger flop so your spr is better.
Wouldn't put AQ in my trap-range turn, it's a disaster to let villain realize eq for free.
Just shove turn, no need to overcomplicate things in this spot.
Pot control is not something that is done with TPTK on a wet board vs a rec.

If you're concerned about pot control, why did you raise the flop bet then? If you're raising the flop and he flats, his range is almost capped to weak hands or draws. Donk outs 4 handed are usually a piece of the flop rather than a draw (oc it's VD)

He's probably betting his whole range after you checked back ott.

As played I would call the rive. He probably took it down with KQ if I were to guess.