Is this a terrible fold? Live 1/2 NL Holdem

[x] have set
[x] pot sized bet remains
[x] loose, splashy aggro villain
[ ] Ever folding this river

P.s. prefer checking to induce

Edit: Effective Stack is 54BB as Villain had $270 in his stack

It's fine to just put the dollar amounts. There are different opinions on how we count bb's in a straddle pot bc your opponents will often play as if it's a raise (e.g. tighten up, raise less often)

Raise pre. C-bet flop small. Over-bet turn.

As played, you're losing to flushes and straights, but beating 2P.

The problem is that his KQ combos probably bet flop when action checks to him, and KT would probably raise turn. Don't know if he even gets here with a worse 2P. And it's unlikely he'd be raising 2P here, when he also loses to our flushes and straights, and he can just flat call.

He might raise turn with J9ss, but he could get here with a lot of J9 and AJo with the As combos.

I hate folding sets, but there isn't much in his value range we can beat, and this isn't likely to be just an air-ball bluff.

I would bet the flop in a 4 way pot. You don’t have any blockers to a king so I would bet and hope someone has one (or even has an 8 or a hand like 99 and calls). 76 could also call.

Betting flop makes the rest of the hand easier to play. You just bet flop, and don’t have much to worry about on the turn so you know you’ll bet turn and avoid this awkward river situation.

This really sucks but I probably fold the river. It really depends on how reckless I think he is and how often I think he will make a stupid bluff. I would ask what my image is at the table. Villain might think you’re weak and full of it because you didn’t bet the flop so you likely don’t have a king or a set (in his mind). Or how knows maybe he thinks he can push you off anything if the 3rd spade comes.

Is he thinking on this level? For all we know maybe he has 72o and is bluffing the scare card. Some splashy players do some weird random things.

Or maybe he is much better than that. Idk.

Auto call . If you think there’s a reasonable chance you are behind, just check call the river. But there’s no reason to think you aren’t ahead and your getting better than 2-1. Have to call now.

Thank you all for the feedback. Definitely a lot of different lines I could've taken here.

@Steve00007, I like leading flop. Makes sense to initiate the action given 4 players in the pot, and having it check thru definitely makes the hand harder as in this case.

@docvail, I was thinking thru this exact thought process, as I just don't see how he shows up with worse. I have little history with this opponent other than this session, but he appeared to be loose, aggro.

I think there is definitely some merit to calling this river, given the size of the pot, strength of our hand, and most importantly opponent. It just seems to me that in my experience at 1/2 live games, river bets, much less river raises always seem to be indicative of nutted hands.

One thing to consider is that your pre-flop play really caps your range here, which allows V to have more bluffs.

It would be weird for you to show up on the river with AJ or J9, unless you had spades, and those are hands that might open rather than over-limp. If he has the A or even the J of spades, he's blocking your nutted hands.

I would still fold. If he has the As, he probably has the nut flush, or at the very least he could have a straight and just be blocking the nut flush. If he has a J, he probably has a straight with an A or 9 and is just going with it because of the lower SPR.

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after flop is checked around there isnt much of anything you can get value from on the river. c/c seems better, he might turn AsQx or QJ into a bluff. what you're hoping for is to snap off some 1/2 pot sized river bluff.

if she shoves river after you check thats kinda gross but im guessing you have to call anyway getting about 2:1.