1/3 3 way spot with BDNFD

this looks like an ldo check/jam spot to me

if BTN checks it back that sucks but he clearly likes his hand and shouldn't be too afraid of the BDFD coming in

I think you get his stack often enough to make up for the times he checks back

I think you have to bet here. $150 - $200 or over-bet. It would be gross if it checked through, and it probably will.

(Please put pot sizes on each street.)

I'd check in-game. I almost never donk rivers, and when someone bets big on the turn I'd like to hope they're going to bet the river when spades miss. Although I'd almost guarantee they'd call a pretty sizeable bet if you lead, you have a chance to get it all with a check raise.

Check/jam. If v has a set of 3s, AQ, JsTs something like that, he probably isn't checking back now. You want to play for all of it.

The BTN probably isn't taking this line with a flopped set or 2P. He may have turned a straight.

Make a stupid-small blocker bet around $75. Hope one or the other spaz raises huge.

That, or bet $650-$700 to polarize.

I think too many hands just check back or just flat call a 1/3 sized value bet. If we bet 1/3 pot and BTN calls, MP is mostly going to fold, so we want to get max value from the BTN.

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You have to bet because its way too likely to get checked through now. The only hands that will still bet the river are other flushes which are highly unlikely with his line when you have the ace. I would go like half pot.

Trying to rank our river options:

#1 - Lead 1/2 pot: I feel like V will check back a lot of two pairs, but will call them all vs a lead.

#2 - Overbet: I don't love polarizing with value in general at these stakes. I feel like a lot of players try it and it's almost always a nutty hand and never a bluff. Do others have success getting called when doing this?

#3 Check/jam My least favorite. It's counting on him to first bet his hand, when many players check back way too much. Then he has to call the jam, which means he ignores the flush and straight 3 ways and gets his whole stack in.

Anyway I bet 250, he raises to 650, I jam, and he quickly folds for 400 more.

Wtf did he have?

Yes, I've gotten called when making over-bets on the river.

He probably turned a straight.