10/20/40 Facing a River Overbet

It is not a 3 bet on the turn and not a donk on the river.

Honestly I think your decision should come on the turn - either call his raise and call blank rivers, or fold to his raise. The turn is a great card for your range yet he x/r - just an odd line he took in this hand when you have all the big Kx, and I think he has it here a lot.

What do we know about LJ? Him being in the hand does impact my decision here depending on what he's like because if he's a fish i would expect villain to do a lot of leading on this flop with his strong hands bc its a dynamic, nut changing board, and it is going to get checked through a lot. Even if LJ is a reg villain should be leading a good amount of strong hands on this flop.

I would go smaller on this turn as well. I think 2/3 is just too face up as a king after checking flop and after it checks through what can they call you with, you're just hoping someone has KJ, KT.

Basically Im not buying villain's line and I think he has a ton of bluffs here like 76, 65, 54, and im going to be very curious and find the call.

My first thought on the turn x/r is 64, but that's MUBS, and that hand probably doesn't check to you twice after the turn checks through. It could also be K7, K5, or K3, or maybe a set.

Not sure what his bluffs would be here. Maybe some KXhh combo that connected with the flop in some way, like K4 or K6.

I don't love calling river when V takes this line. But it's kind of suspect. You could have KK, maybe KT, and I guess occasionally TT here. What are his 2P combos targeting for value on the river, other than exactly AK/KQ and some other thin slices of KX?

I almost want to turn our hand into a bluff and raise, because what do his 2P and low sets do then?

Folding seems like the most sane option. I guess calling can't be terrible from an MDF perspective. Raising is a bit kamikaze, but might be just the ticket to let V know you came to play, and he can't go to the aggression well too many times.

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I'd just fold the turn. There's only a small chance you face a check on the river and you honestly don't feel great about any river card.

CRing a K turn where he knows it hits you pretty strong and you're not likely to fold is kind of an alarm bell for me. Plus the fact that just in general turn CR's into the PFR are pretty strong.

Man, what better hand could you have? I dont think you check a set or overpair otf. You dont have K7 K5 K3 in your range, probably dont have 75 64 53 either. If youre folding AK KQ OTT, youre folding your whole range. OTR KT you could have and could be stronger.

Range considerations matter vs this type of V, do you ever slowplayed a strong made hand on a board this draw heavy? If not, he knows your range is capped and is likely exactly Kx, and if he thinks you overfold, why would he check raise and then overbet river as a value bet? Seems like its a bluff if reads are correct. Y guess is a semibluff of some sort with a hand like 65.

Nicely done

Nice hand.

I'd be curious to know if the 2.5x sizing of his turn x/r is telling in some way, or normal in that game. That smallish raise followed by the river over-bet doesn't seem to make very much sense, because what hands are you supposed to have that just call turn, and then call again on the river?