1/3 match the stack: AA on the Btn 4! Pot v SB

Strange for a competent player to be donking in a 3BP....

I think he just doesnt want to see a huge bet bc hes afraid his AK or KQs is no good. I dont know why he would be donking small with real value.

So i really want to read him for exactly KQs and raise but we are very deep so because of that i think just calling is best bc there is a percentage of the time maybe that hes being very tricky w something and trying to induce us to raise.

His turn/river line is odd and looks like a pair + draw, or 2P. Doesn't look like a set or straight

What do you think his 4b calling range is here?

0% chance he is competent.

Your 4bet is way too small. You size up the deeper you are and these players have a tendency to overcall after 3betting so go at least $250.

Anything other than calling turn/river is a punt.

Yeah I thought a bigger 4! Would have been better at out stack depth. But being in position, I didn’t feel the need to go much bigger. But in hindsight, I should have gone at least 3x

At this stack depth, my 4! Calling range in this spot would be 88+ mixing in some small 5! With KK-AA, KQs, AJs+. I’d assume his may be something similar

You shouldn't be mixing in any 5bet bluffs vs a 4bet at a 1/3 game. It doesn't matter what a solver solution says since these guys 3bet/4bet ranges are heavily weighted towards top 2% of hands.

Agree with most of this, except that I think making an exploitative fold on the river isn’t terrible. In fact, I’d say there’s probably not much of a difference at all between calling or folding the River.

There's no way you can fold river. You need to be good 225/1015 = ~22% of the time. Villain can have AK/AQ/KQs/QQ.

Turn feels like exactly JJ getting to set its price. It calls flop in case you have aq, then doesn't want to be pushed off it's equity on the turn.

Does it make sense to raise turn? He would have you on AA kk ak qq. Agree that this shouldn't be a set. So I know it's scary but probably you have to put in a decent raise. Either all in or enough to deny his odds but leaving like 500 behind. In latter case you might need to fold this river or a q river.

As played you still beat some value on the river and very isn't huge so you call. Again can be ak kq etc block betting or value merging with bluffs.

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It's even better than this because you're missing our call in your equation.

225/(1015+225) == ~18%

Man, if i was 500 BBs deep directly OOP to a competent player 3 betting me, id probably be seat changing asap

I dont find his turn lead especially wild, and honestly idve checked back ott if he hadnt bet, but i wouldve expected it with larger sizings from the range id expect it from (KK/TT/99). As played I think he almost surely has QQ JJ KQ or AK.

I think a turn raise is too strong on this board, and i think a river range is too strong too, so im probably just calling and expecting to win.

If i felt confident enough in their range based on reads and I could get away with it without getting punished, maybe id try a small raise, maybe 300 on top where he almost feels forced to call with QQ/JJ, planning to fold to any 3 bet no matter how small. But like i say, probably >50% of the time im just calling.

yeah apparently i can't calculate pot odds.

Nice one

To clarify, I thought he was competent. No to go too into detail into another hand. We open Btn w 86hh and he 3! Sb. We call. Long story short flop AQ6hxx turn Jh river 3x.
Called flop. Turn and I folded river. Later in the session we talk about the hand and he told me he 3! W 96cc, which is really bad. So, perhaps I had an inaccurate read on V before this hand.

3 betting light is usually a sign of competence. Obviously he aint doing it with the right hands (or he just thinks 69 is funny, or he lied), but not a bad first read to have, and gotta go with the info you had at the time of playing the hand.

4bet bigger. I go bigger on the flop. As played, the runout sucks vs this guy, but I don't think I can fold given the price. His turn bet is such a blocking size I really want to raise him, but if not, I have to call the river, even though it sucks.

Will be extra funny if V has 96s again 😉.

Might bet a bit bigger on the flop, would maybe think about raising turn just because it feels a lot like a one pair hand that wants a cheap river. and QJs was already there.
But it's K high so you have to be 4betting AQs/A5s/etc. to have no pair.

100% just calling river even though it feels so much like AK/KQ.

Results:

Did you have a reason to believe him? In my cardroom people lie about what they have most of the time.

I had no reason not to. But, yeah he def could have been full of it. Would be quite a bad hand to 3! From small blind as deep as we were.

If this guy's 4B calling range is anywhere near correct, I think I'm raising turn when he donks for this sizing. Seems like he's trying to set his own price to get to showdown with 1P.

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Yes, turns out we were all correct about that and would've wussed out due to stack depth and cost ourselves a ton of value. Its something I would do though if I had a big fat juicy bankroll like 20k. Unfortunately its not realistic for most of us and we do what we can with limited roll.

Nobody wants to check back flop? As played turn is just a call and river is close. A lot has changed on this river, there aren’t a lot of hands left we beat and a lot of his nonsense got there. Probably flip a coin.

If we don't have the bankroll for the game we should drop down in stakes, rather than play scared.

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V 3B and called our 4B pre. What are we worried about here?

Definitely not checking back flop. Probably raising turn. Definitely not folding river.

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