TPGK facing triple barrel and river overbet from LAG
[hand_history]
NL1/2 - 8 players, effective stacks ~200
Villain (SB), Hero (BB)
Pre Flop: (pot: 3) Hero has K♠ Q♥
everyone folds to Villain (SB) who limps, Hero (BB) raises to 8, Villain calls
Flop: (pot 16, stacks~192) Q♣ 8♠ 4♥
Villain donks 10, Hero calls
Turn: (pot 36, stacks~182) T♣
Villain bets 25, Hero calls
River: (pot 86, stacks~157) T♠
Villain overbets 100, Hero ?
[/hand_history]
Had been playing for 1h. Villain is a young Asian male (probably student) - LAGgy. Saw him double-barrel bluffing. My own image must be very tight pre. According to his standards I’m probably "weak" postflop as well. He did see me calling off a big flop shove with TPMK in a 3bet pot against another player so he can’t consider me extremely nitty also.
Flop and turn seem pretty standard calls to me. Folding the river is probably exploitable as my hand is among the top hands in my range. However, I keep hearing the advice that at low stakes players rarely triple barrel bluffing and if I face significant action on the river then I should seriously consider (exploitatively) folding my TP. It is consistent with his play that he picked up a MP OTT that turn to trips OTR. I did observe several other players adjusting their sizing to handstrength. On the other hand, I do see him overplaying worse TP here.
6 Replies
He could have OJ. He could have an 8. Because you didnt raise flop or turn your hand is underrepped. He could be putting you on JJ or AK. I say call.
All his flopped two pairs got counterfeited on the river.
He could have OJ. He could have an 8. Because you didnt raise flop or turn your hand is underrepped. He could be putting you on JJ or AK. I say call.
All his flopped two pairs got counterfeited on the river.
Agree. Too many hands that you beat. Unless he was firing with air and hit runner-runner trips, you should be good here. If that's the case, tap the table, say "nice hand" and move on to the next hand.
No chop?
Against some aggro lag young guy that doesnt want to chop blinds and thinks he can just blast off and make us fold everything im calling.
If hes got it whatever, I dont believe him.
Think I would have preferred raising his flop donk bet. What is that? $10 into $16? I call BS.
If you think he's likely to barrel off with his bluffs, or over-value a worse hand, call. That said, what are we beating here?
As played, his most likely hands would seem to be A8cc, A4cc, J9, QX, TX, or 44. We'd think he'd slow down at some point with some of the worse hands in that range, and we're blocking a good chunk of the TP hands in his range that we beat.
Like, is he really barreling off with A8, A4, and worse QX here, when we called flop and turn? Feels like he's taking us to value town.
We have TP2K. No shame in folding.
I would call this with QJ or Q9, but fold with our QK (or QA.) It’s an overbet, we can’t call all our top pairs.
I call river bets a lot, I call here too. Its basically TX or nothing.
