Best line to maximize value with unlikely / weakish 2P vs calling station?
Found myself in this situation a few times recently. Wondering how others would play it, particularly what bet sizing others would take.
1/3, $500 max, 9-handed
H - MAWG, LAG table image, covers with >$500.
V - Typical rec-fish, too loose-passive pre, flat calling too wide, super-tight 3B'ing range, too sticky with weak hands post, will chase draws, <$500.
Folds to hero in HJ. Hero opens to $15 with 65s, or 54s, or 43s, or something kinda trashy, like J7s. V calls from the BTN. Blinds fold. HU to the flop.
FLOP - KJ4rb, or KJ5 two-tone, hero doesn't have the flush suits, just middle pair with a crap kicker, or bottom pair.
Hero c-bets 1/3 pot, because the k-high board favors the PFR's range, and because our pair needs some protection, and it's hard to make a pair, etc. V calls. If V raised, hero would fold.
TURN - Xx (brick), or pairs hero's kicker.
Hero bets 2/3 pot, because we've improved to 2P, or because nothing's changed and we're still betting for value and protection against V's draws. V calls. If V raised on a brick, hero would probably fold.
RIVER - Xx (brick), or pairs hero's kicker.
Basic situation - all the draws bricked out, and hero either turned or rivered an unlikely yet somewhat weakish 2P, when V probably has top pair, but probably not 2P+.
Hero bets 2/3 pot for value, sometimes a little less, sometimes a little more. If V raised, hero would probably fold. V calls with KX, and hero's 2P is good.
The flop c-bets, as well as the turn and river bets, especially their sizes are what I'm wondering about. Specifically, I'm wondering if I should be checking more on the flop, and sizing up more for value on turn and/or river.
My thinking is that these low-stakes rec-fish tend to flat call pre too wide, with a lot of Broadway combos like QTs, a lot of AXs, a lot of KXs, and tend to fast-play when they flop 2P+, so on these KJX two-tone boards, there are lots of draws in our opponents' ranges that we can get value from.
But they also have a lot of better 1P hands, mostly KX. They aren't going to raise, because they're afraid we have AA, or AK, or KJ, or because of our table image, they think we're just bluffing and that we'll just continue barrel on a brick run-out.
We can get A LOT of value from these KX hands when we make 2P on a later street and V wants to bluff-catch, but I wonder if I shouldn't be sizing up for even more value.
As a corollary, it seems like these players will over-fold when the most obvious draws come in, allowing us to profitably bluff when we don't make 2P.
Alternatively, if we make 2P and the draw comes in, the river will often get checked-through. I wonder if checking 2P on the river isn't losing too much value.
Thoughts?
7 Replies
V - Typical rec-fish, too loose-passive pre, flat calling too wide, super-tight 3B'ing range, too sticky with weak hands post, will chase draws, <$500.
Folds to hero in HJ. Hero opens to $15 with 65s, or 54s, or 43s, or something kinda trashy, like J7s. V calls from the BTN. Blinds fold. HU to the flop.
Stop doing this. With a station on our left, we should not be opening cheese. Even the SCs are pretty bad in this scenario. I'd much rather overlimp them than open them when they are that low.
TURN - Xx (brick), or pairs hero's kicker.
Hero bets 2/3 pot, because we've improved to 2P, or because nothing's changed and we're still betting for value and protection against V's draws. V calls. If V raised on a brick, hero would probably fold.
These are not he same scenario and should not be bet the same. Once he calls flop, he likely has TPNK or a PP between the top and second card on the board. He's sticky and he's not folding it. So c/f on the bricks most of the time and barrel on the 2p most of the time.
Flop and river plans seem fine. Except this part.
As a corollary, it seems like these players will over-fold when the most obvious draws come in, allowing us to profitably bluff when we don't make 2P.
That is often not a good move against described player unless you checked one street. You need specific reads that he will fold TP and that he believes that you bet draws. Otherwise, it is burning money.
Stop doing this. With a station on our left, we should not be opening cheese. Even the SCs are pretty bad in this scenario. I'd much rather overlimp them than open them when they are that low.
I expected to get flamed for opening too wide. These games are so soft. Sometimes I can't help myself if I've been card-dead for a few orbits. But, yes, it's a leak, and I should plug it.
These are not he same scenario and should not be bet the same. Once he calls flop, he likely has TPNK or a PP between the top and second card on the board. He's sticky and he's not folding it. So c/f on the bricks most of the time and barrel on the 2p most of the time.
I have a hard time check-folding 1P on the turn, especially middle pair, when it's a really wet board. Especially at low-stakes, where the fish logic seems to be that everyone c-bets too frequently, close to 100%, so they never fold to a single c-bet on the flop, but will over-fold vs a turn barrel, unless they have TP, which they'll never fold.
I've just gotten used to having to fire twice before any V will fold at low stakes. I'll bet big with thick value and small with weak value. It's amazing how infrequently I get raised, despite this obvious sizing tell.
If we check turn, it opens the door for them to rep TP with their draws. If we're going to check-fold turn, maybe we should just check flop, and make a delayed c-bet on the turn?
Alternatively, if we think they'll start a semi-bluff with their draws, or bet their PP's, maybe we should check-call to bluff-catch with our middle pair, or go for a check-raise when we turn 2P?
Flop and river plans seem fine. Except this part. That is often not a good move against described player unless you checked one street. You need specific reads that he will fold TP and that he believes that you bet draws. Otherwise, it is burning money.
When V's call me down with just TPNK on a brick run-out, my assumption is that they were bluff-catching, and they thought I was in fact betting the draw that bricked out. Sometimes they'll even say, "I knew you were bluffing," not realizing I was actually betting for value and / or protection.
I do actually bet my draws, a lot of the time, as the PFR. If I flop a good combo draw or good pair + a draw, I'm betting flop and barreling turn, and only giving up if or when I brick out on the river.
If I had QTs on KJx two-tone, with the flush suit or BDFD, why not barrel the turn? The alternative is to check-fold when they bet huge with TP, when they're assuming (correctly in this scenario) that we're on a draw.
Logically, if we barrel the turn for protection with 1P, and they think we're bluffing with the draw, and we put them on TPNK when they call, it seems like we should rep that draw when it comes in on the river, and we know our 1P is no good, right?
I've seen this fish logic in other situations. I sat next to one who played this hand against a friend: the fish is UTG and has K8cc. He limp-calls an LP raise over some other limps in MP. The flop comes 5d6d7s. Action checks to the LP PFR, who bets 1/2 pot, and the fish calls next to act. Everyone else folds. The turn is an off-suit K, making him TPNK + OESD. He check-calls a 2/3 pot bet, then check-calls a huge river bet on another off-suit 6, making him kings up, only to get shown 65 for a boat.
After the hand, he said, "he could have been bluffing. I would have folded if it was another diamond. But how do I fold when I make 2P on the river?" He couldn't fathom how his opponent is never bluffing or betting worse for value when he barrels off after getting called on the flop and turn on this three-straight, two-tone board.
You said he's loose-passive. Loose passive Vs don't rep, they just try to hit. As I recall reading on my first week on 2+2, "they don't bet with nothing; they call with nothing."
They are generally not "bluff catching," statements to the contrary aside. They are calling because they have TP, and that's a good hand, in their estimation, whether the board is wet or not, and somewhat regardless of what the previous action has been. And my point above was not about what you do, it's about whether they think you do it. If they don't know, they generally assume you play like they do.
You said he's loose-passive. Loose passive Vs don't rep, they just try to hit. As I recall reading on my first week on 2+2, "they don't bet with nothing; they call with nothing."
They are generally not "bluff catching," statements to the contrary aside. They are calling because they have TP, and that's a good hand, in their estimation, whether the board is wet or not, and somewhat regardless of what the previous action has been. And my point above was not about what you do, it's about whether
Alright. This is awesome insight. Thank you.
I think I've been falling into the trap of thinking they think like I do, instead of trying to think like they do.
So, to your earlier point, which now makes more sense - they're not betting turn with their draws, so we can just check-fold when all we have is worse than TP.
As long as you're here - any thoughts on the bet sizing when we do make 2P? Am I losing value not going bigger than 2/3 pot (basically my default size in spots like this)? Should I be afraid of scaring them away, or are they likely so inelastic that they'll still call a bigger bet?
That just depends on so many factors: wetness of the board, actual $ amount (many LPs don't think in pot ratios), prior action, etc. Generally, though, my default bet is about 2/3 of the pot, and I adjust from there.
i think if you make two pair you should bet pot on the turn and then shove brick rivers. i know the standard is to bet 2/3 pot on the turn but i dont see the point, just pot it.
pre is w/e. i think people underestimate how often people overfold to flop cbets. even fishy calling stations. if you bet 2/3 flop with middle pair, i just c/f the turn though.
i think if you make two pair you should bet pot on the turn and then shove brick rivers. i know the standard is to bet 2/3 pot on the turn but i dont see the point, just pot it.
pre is w/e. i think people underestimate how often people overfold to flop cbets. even fishy calling stations. if you bet 2/3 flop with middle pair, i just c/f the turn though.
I think you may be right about going for bigger value on turn and river. I often find myself worrying that my opponents will over-fold to bigger bets when I have value, yet somehow I also think they're going to call me down light when I'm bluffing.
