5/5 weird spot with KTs
5/5
$500 effective
V1 - OMC
V2 - Regish type of player. Young Asian guy
V3 - Loose passive player. 50+ y.o. Iranian/Armenian woman
V1(UTG) opens to $25, call, V3 calls, Hero(BU) K♠ T♠ - calls, V2(SB) calls
Flop($125) J♥ 9♠ 6♠
SB(V2) bets $75, V1 folds, caller folds, V3 all in for ~$200, Hero - ??
Can I just fold this?
11 Replies
No. While the donk from regish V2 is likely two-pair plus on this board his range has only a minor impact on your equity. You describe V3 as loose passive, so range her on Jx, QT, T8, flush draws. If V1 has NFD and V2 a set, well that's unfortunate, but you have more than enough equity to shove. Even if you get into the weeds and identify that V3 blocks some of your flush and gutshot outs, it's still a shove at this stack depth.
You describe V3 as loose passive, so range her on Jx, QT, T8, flush draws.
What? That is not the range of a loose passive. An LP generally has TPTK+ here and is worried about draws, thus the shove. The 8-9 out draws are just calling from an LP.
Yeah V3 (the short stack shoving) will have top pair, sometimes two pair or a set. I am more worried about V2 donking into 4 players, which is weighted toward a hand like 66 or J9, but could also be a top pair "see where I'm at/fold out overcards" bet.
Given the pot size and 100bb stacks I think you gotta shove with the monster draw and ride the variance train in this one.
I just shove here. Fold is the other option, but it's not a good one.
What? That is not the range of a loose passive. An LP generally has TPTK+ here and is worried about draws, thus the shove. The 8-9 out draws are just calling from an LP.
If a loose-passive had a 100bb stack, sure, but in this case they got to the flop with 40bb. Even a LP understands when they are short-stacked and essentially only have one bet left. I'm not convinced that you can remove draws from their range, in this situation, merely because they shoved rather than just called.
Folding
If V2 is a good reg, then their range is mostly sets + A-high flushdraws.
If V2 is just a reg, we can jam because live regs lead with top pair hands when they shouldn't be.
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Yes, exactly. We never force our opponent to fold anything. I don't really understand the reason for jamming here when we can just call instead. Our opponent might do something weird, such as calling with a set to slowplay, which could give us a free card and save us money.
Jamming, I think you can put some possible SB hands in a bind, like QT, 87ss, KJ, some of which you don't mind if he calls or forfeits equity but is given a chance to make a mistake.
I fold. NFD is lurking.
Also we're too deep, 475 back.. 200 sure.
Fold pre. I usually get annoyed at this forum for being overly nitty preflop, but this is definitely a fold preflop.
