Got the goods - now how much part II
1/2 Saturday night
V1 - random older white male tight, seems tight and solid, but more fit-or-fold/transparent - 300
V2 - older asian type, plays a lot of hands, but only opens with premiums, and again fit-or-fold - 400
H - has been running over the table despite not getting many good cards has about 900
H UTG opens 10 with Q10cc (only been one 3bet in three hours and it was of course AA), four calls including V1 in UTG +1, and V2 in the BB
Flop (40ish)
KsJs4d
V2 bets 15, H calls, V1 calls, others fold
Turn (85ish)
KsJs4dAc
V2 bets 25, H raises to 75, V1 cold calls?!, V2 folds
River (235ish)
KsJs4dAc8d
H has the nuts, how much - obviously V must have a lot of flush draws that missed but also could have strongish hands in range
13 Replies
Your reasoning for Opening QTs UTG is unsound. The math - 1-(.9*.9*.9*.9*.9*.9*.9*.9) states that with 8 players yet to act; a majority of the time (~57%) you will face a top 10% hand. Even if the possibility of a 3! is low; you will be OOP for the hand.
Opening QTs is fine/standard, but it becomes problematic when you’re bombing your Preflop raises for 5x.
Flop is one place where you’re definitely going to have to form a raising range, but it’s obviously not necessary to do it with any given draw combo since you have so many, as well as 4x.
Raise turn bigger and it’s an easier river shove. Still probably shove as player. You have the nuts, they suck, and I don’t see a reason anyone’s gonna raise you light if you bet smaller (be it with this hand or thinner vbets).
Your turn raise is tiny. We would want to bluff big with T9ss and need to do that with the nuts too. As played bet 150 on river we don’t want him folding AJ.
raise the turn to like $125 and shove the river.
Fold pre if you use this open size
Raise more turn.
As for River, I think it purely depends on your read on villains; I think all 1p hands likely fold to any reasonable size bet, so the question is can they get away from 2p+ ever? If not, I'm shoving.
My default in these situations at low stakes when I don't have good reads is to shove because so much of the low stakes population can't get away from 2p+ hands (like ever).
The river should only hurt him if he was on a FD, so bet 200 (which is all he has left).
Opening QTs is fine/standard, but it becomes problematic when you’re bombing your Preflop raises for 5x.
Pre flop raise was a little wide but the sizing was fine (5x in live poker, especially in a semi-deep 1/2 game from UTG was fine).
I think all 1p hands likely fold to any reasonable size bet, so the question is can they get away from 2p+ ever? If not, I'm shoving.
Yeah, I don't really think he calls the turn raise there with only one pair so he probably has two pair or a draw.
all in
Results - Hero bet 250 with a stack of greens - V tanks for about 90 seconds and folds KJ :(
Really think he'd call anything between 100-175
Results - Hero bet 250 with a stack of greens - V tanks for about 90 seconds and folds KJ :(
Really think he'd call anything between 100-175
It's impossible to know the elsasticities. He was clearly very close to calling, so you weren't far off.
You average player at these stakes can rarely get away from 2p, so I think all in was fine.
Middle two would have been a really light call off. You're getting plenty of value if he so much as thought about it with a hand that loses to A4.
