1/3 - Trips face overbet river shove

I think we have to call here. We beat a lot of his AX holdings, and our hand is pretty under-repped.

Pre is Raise or Fold depending on villain, probably raising here.

I think I'm raising either flop or turn. Nobody believes you have trips on paired boards.

River. Tough decision. Do we have much on him, other than demographic. I think river is pretty polarized. I don't think this is a naked ace, so its likely a bluff or a boat. I think there's probably just enough there if you throw in some KJ or KT, and the odd ace occasionally, but it's close.

I assume this was just a typo, but in case it’s not, and you’ve been making huge pot odds errors your whole poker career, let me point out that it’s actually $340 to win just $535.

This is essentially the second strongest hand we can ever have in this spot (after 44). But of course any time you face an overbet you need to be super selective with your calls.

…I actually think KQ is a *better* call than 44 here, since we block more AK with KQ, so in that respect, this really is the best hand we can ever have. I think if we fold KQ we are folding EVERYTHING, and that can’t be right, so I’m calling with with all my KQs and most of my 44 and laying everything else down.

Depends. Are you there to have fun or do you want to win money in the long term? The latter? You're not trying to be some cool rich douchebag on some livestream of horrible players. You've called the whole way. Do you honestly think that he's not concerned that you have a K?

Let's see, he bets small to keep people in on the flop. Bets as clsoe to pot as he can without folding out lower kings and then slams the river.

He's in the HJ, so even with a wide range, he's say A10+ and 99+ along with some suited connector. Likely any hand that's afriad of a king or ace is gone. That leaves you A10+, KK and AA. Sure you beat A10, AJ, AQ, but you lose to AK, KK, AA. You block AK and AQ. There's as much there that you lose to as you beat and he overbet the pot by a lot.

It's 1/3. You don't typically see big 3 bet bluffs and if he played like that, you'd know it.

Learn this phrase. "That was either a really stupid bet or a great bluff" No way its a bluff though and if it is, yup, he got one through on you.

Fold pre. Unless you’re flatting like AQo and TT here, in which case maybe you can 3b?

I call river against an unknown young buck.

Is this a question of odds vs percentages? If I call, the pot will be 875, so I need to be good 340/875 = 39% of the time right?. Or, with odds of 340:535 or ~2:3, I need to win 2 times to every 3 times I lose. Is that what you get?

I'm so confused about HJ having an ace here

Anyways classic raise HJ, barrel off and 175% shove river 4-way on a paired flop with air

Raise pre raise flop raise turn.

As played im calling river but not super jazzed.

Thanks all

Results:

Overall I just fold preflop (mostly due to being OOP against someone I'm assuming is a solid player based on age / stack). Against a light raiser I might 3bet if in position. But going multiway with this hand OOP is meh, imo (I would more consider a flat with KQs especially if the limpers are horrible).

I also check/call the flop.

It's too early to consider a fold on the turn but I'm not exactly loving life facing the large bet, although this could be his last attempt to fold out a pocket pair.

And against the river overshove I just make a nitty fold. Very few players are capable of massive overshove bluffs; if he's one, then more reason to never get into a pot with him preflop (especially OOP). Otherwise very few players overvalue worse Kx to this amount and most everyone happily checks back Ax (and don't even bomb the turn with it to boot). And not that it really matters much in this spot but there isn't even any busted draws. So we're basically hoping he bet into 3 opponents on the flop with air, then barrelled for overstacks against someone that kinda looks they are tarping with a Kx.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Flop bet for like 1/5 pot probably represents his entire range.