1/3 - "Never fold in a limped pot" - big draw deep vs aggro reg

Not only is "Never fold in a limped pot" terrible advice, but I have never heard it before. The adage I am more familiar with is "No one wants to go broke in a limped pot."

I really don't like the flop lead. The board is wet and hits a lot of limpers' ranges (including ours, LOL). We have a lot of equity and would like to realize it. I want to check-evaluate here, likely calling, but I would consider (this is from my old limit HE days, when this was a standard play) checking and squeezing fairly small if there was a bet and a couple of flat-callers, hoping to trap more money in the pot getting an overlay.

On the turn, we no longer have a ton of equity, 24% at very best and only 18% if the villain happens to have one of the three remaining combos of 64s. Are we going to get any more money if we make our flush or if a 4 hits. We would need a lot of fold equity for ripping it to be profitable.

Flop lead OOP is bad.

Villain doesn’t get the described reads by only having a nutted range of 17 combos when they take two betting actions on such a draw-heavy board. I expect our A outs to be clean (or that we’re already ahead) a decent percent of the time, and put us at about 30% equity. It’s not even out of the question he has like black 86.

Of course we won’t realize all that equity against described villain with a call, as he’ll continue on a blank (or even A) with 98hh some, but we also have implied odds when we hit the nuts 20% of the time.

I’m inclined to 3!/GII OTF when we’re OOP with the NFD and good side of the 4-straight draw. If nothing else to avoid this exact inevitable situation on the turn. Obviously we’re playing different IP and we’re not getting it in with less nutted draws.

I also don’t tend to lead here (and certainly not for full pot) but if there’s any board we can lead on and any hand we can do it with it’s this one so whatever.

Wow I didn't realize the flop lead was so bad. I was thinking I wanted to start building a pot for if I hit

But I see now that I just end up OOP, often multiway and without a made hand

On the turn fold is best. If you shove you need villain to fold a lot and if you call your not likely to get paid on your flushes. If villain does have enough bluffs then shoving could be better but it's unlikely he is bluffing that often unless he habitually raises when he thinks opponent has a draw.

The thing to realize is against a player with a pattern of this sort of large sized bets flush draws are not worth much. This sort of player will make every hand he is betting expensive, so marginal draws are not worth playing. Your draw here is too good to give up but you would have been better off with a check/call.

This type of player makes his money by over charging people to chase their draws. To balance it don't chase less then good draws and wait for made hands. It takes patience but it's an easy strategy to beat.

The other big problem with donk-leading for a large sizing—a pot-size bet—is you limit your opponents’ continuing range only to very strong hands. No one is continuing with 97 or K5—they’re only continuing with 75 and 64 and 33 etc, and they’re not calling, they’re raising.

As played you need to fold the Turn because you aren’t getting direct odds, nor are you at all likely to get a big River bet called because you are OOP and your draw is incredibly obvious. (I might call it with A4hh, only because you can double-up on a non-heart river 2.)

Shoving looks even worse because it seems exceedingly unlikely that you have fold equity. You have a competent player who’s putting a ton of money into a limped pot—this basically has to be a monster hand, and he’d be getting 2:1 on a call. He’s not happy about it, but he’s not folding a set here. He’ll fold 75s some of the time, and yes, once in a blue moon this will be a bluff and you take it down, and sometimes it’ll be K4hh or 98hh and he’ll call it off and you’re ahead…but you kinda need to wash those out with the times he calls you with QJhh or K3hh.

So yeah. Just fold the Turn.

There's definitely a 3b on the flop after the $65 or really even a jam. you get a lot of fold equity and you have draws to a big hand. Vi has a made hand an is basically cutting off the pot odds in the pot. You can always say something like your set or flush draw are no good and jam. He very well could have the straight already.

That said, why not bet $40 or 50 pre-flop? Most of those folks fold. When on that flop you can just jam. 2/3 of the time you made $15 with no fuss. Use that TAG image for the few people intelligent 4enough to pay attention.

Im happy to check raise but never leading with a draw. You want another flush in there to go broke. I think as played you just gotta fold the turn. Hes never folding to a raise and hes not calling often enough when you hit your hand.

PRE - I could see squeezing this hand from the BB, when all our opponents limped. Otherwise, checking isn't terrible.

FLOP - I don't like leading out here. We want all our opponents' 1P+ and draws to bet. We might check-raise or just call, depending on who bets, how much, and if there are any calls.

AP, when we bet and get raised, we're not deep enough to 3B-fold, and a jam can never get called by worse. So I think we can just flat call and see what happens on the turn.

TURN - It sucks, but we just have to fold.

Thanks all, great feedback. Agree that flop lead was bad and turn should be a fold

Results:

I was expecting 2P+ when we bet pot and get raised >4x on the flop.

It's kind of a weird spot. From the BB in a limped pot, you could have any two cards, but probably not too many flopped sets, other than 33, unless you're limping 77 and 55. You could also have 64 for a straight. You shouldn't have quite as many NFD's here, because your better AXs combos would probably raise pre.

So you block 64, and in theory you should probably have more 64 and 33 than top or middle sets or flush draws. If you did have 64 or 33, this is probably a line you'd take pretty often, except maybe you'd 3B the two-tone flop sometimes, even at the risk of making your hand too face up.

If the flop was rainbow, and the flush draw didn't appear until the turn, and if it wasn't a disconnected high card, I think he might fold a little more often, maybe.

I'm assuming thread title is a joke (and I did lol, FWIW).

Ah, a $7 max rake game, i.e. early 2018 in my room. So jelly, enjoy it while it lasts!

I also just see a flop preflop.

I'm cool with a small $5 bet or just check/evaluate here. I don't like the PSB bet only because flop raises are ~nuttish multiway and we don't want to price ourselves out facing a big raise. Facing the big raise really sucks here. Yeah, ok maybe it isn't as nuttish for this guy as most (although he just 4+'ed the guy with a nit image donking a PSB into the world). Very good chance our Ax ain't good. A 4 for a straight could just chop. Not all flush outs may be good. Being OOP will make it harder to get paid off (especially with a nit image) when the obvious flush gets there. TBH, all told even continuing here might not be as great as we think it is.

FWIW, just because we don't have direct odds on the turn (we rarely do) doesn't make this a fold versus shove spot; if we feel we have IO then a call is perfectly reasonable. I'm definitely not shoving into someone showing this much massive strength. So the question becomes whether we think we have the necassary IO to call getting only 2:1 immediately. Using my same flop reasoning, I don't think we do, so I fold.

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