My turn bluff hits TPTK—value bet or check?
Blinds $1-$2. Couple MP limps, I raise AcJd to $14 on the Button. SB and first limper call.
FLOP: Th5d2d (pot: $40). SB checks, limper donks $10, I call, SB calls.
TURN: Th5d2d 7d (pot: $70). SB checks, limper checks, we bet $55 on a bluff, but SB calls, limper folds.
RIVER: Th5d2d 7d Js (pot: $180, heads-up)
The SB (who only has $60 left) checks, do we check back or bet $60?
10 Replies
Yeah stick him all in. Sure he may have hit 2p or the straight, but a) he may well have led out with these and b) there's value to be had from other tens, and maybe even 88,99 here.
This is a pretty low stress situation. Is your J good 25% of the time? Of course it is. I would guess a stone bluff is good here 25% of the time, so there ya are....
Yeah I would stick the rest in expecting lots of sigh calls.
Well you could imagine he has a range where to your jam
30% he folds, 50% he calls and loses, and 20% he calls and winds.
When you have AJ you will win the pot 80% of the time - profitable
When you have a stone cold bluff say 43s, you will win the pot 30% of the time - profitable
Just incoherently listing percentages with no logic. Okay.
You just said "????? what?" so I inferred you didn't understand the concept that Buster had thrown out.
My point in listing percentages was to show that it is theoretically possible.
If your "????? what?" meant something else, let us know!
If our hand is only good 25% of the time, checking is more +EV than value betting…….
Blinds $1-$2. Couple MP limps, I raise AcJd to $14 on the Button. SB and first limper call.
FLOP: Th5d2d (pot: $40). SB checks, limper donks $10, I call, SB calls.
TURN: Th5d2d 7d (pot: $70). SB checks, limper checks, we bet $55 on a bluff, but SB calls, limper folds.
RIVER: Th5d2d 7d Js (pot: $180, heads-up)
The SB (who only has $60 left) checks, do we check back or bet $60?
RESULT: I did bet $60 and he folded what he claimed was AT, which is an INSANE fold.
