Heads-up top pair good kicker; facing a turn raise

Interesting spot imo, especially without reads. I would probably find a fold at the table facing this line not expecting the average live player to bluff here very often. Also the sizing to me seems value heavy. I'm not replying because I think I know wtf I'm talking about either, lol. I understand this fold is 100% not balanced and extremely exploitable.

I think his most likely semibluffs are diamonds w/ the Kd or 8d, which is maybe ~8 combos, many of which are the Kd that likely check behind the river unimproved.

So you could potentially call here planning to check fold the river unimproved (likely rivering the Qd lol), expecting at least some of the time for it to go check-check, and you outkick his top pair.

Explo fold

Your 3 bet is too small, should be $75. I think you can fold, you face a jam on almost every river here.

For the record, i think this forum does WAY too much assuming that if a guy fires then he will fire to the river with their full range, but i find this to be ESPECIALLY true of turn raises like this.

For whatever reason, Vs put all their bluff raises otf and value raises ott.

This is absolutely true at low stakes imo.

It's a pretty easy fold on the turn unless you have evidence that he's somehow diffferent from the usual low stakes rec.

As for is it exploitable, well yeah sure if you have some big sample in simillar situations *and* villains are able to understand this pattern *and* villains are able to actually exploit it.

easy beluga fold

Not sure it's even exploitable. You you are being with so many better hands. I think you have over 30 better combos in your range here. What worse hands are you betting here? Kj and some draws?

Perhaps could have checked the turn and decided on river

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When he called me on the flop, I was thinking he had a flush draw, straight draw, or middling pocket pair. The turn looked safe against those hands, and I wanted to charge him to keep drawing so I bet 1/2 pot on the turn.

When he raised me on the turn, I didn't think he seemed like the kind of player to semi-bluff with a diamond draw, nor the type to slow play AK or AA this way. I was thinking he might indeed have KT, TT, or 88. And I was thinking, my hand is one I should probably fold now. Maybe out of sticky stubborness, and justifying it with "he could be on a draw", I called.

The river came 4h, which was sort of good in that it was unlikely to improve the villain's hand. I checked and he checked behind showing down KJo.

He muttered "King queen" a couple times afer the hand was over, I suppose expressing surprise or disgust, I'm not sure which.

So villain was a bad player, value raising with KJ on the turn.

I didn't have a good rationale to call him on the turn, so I think I'm not so hot of a player myself. Since my skill doesn't help me out in situations like this, I'm just going to be riding the waves of variance.

You just played and won the game of 5th street chicken. Given that he checked behind a river that changed nothing, I wouldn't say he was raising the turn for value. At the same time, I wouldn't give him credit for semi-bluffing a hand with that much showdown value.

Most likely there's some kind of "I'm almost certainly going to call twice, so maybe something good happens if I raise instead" going on.

Did he do anything else memorable later in the session?

3b AI turn with back door coming in against this player type.

Grunch:

My initial thought would be that V either flopped a straight draw that turned a flush draw, with a hand like QJdd or J9dd, or he was slow playing a flopped 2P+ and doesn't like the BDFD coming in. But my gut feeling would lean more towards slow play than combo draw, when he suddenly amps up the aggression.

It's also possible he's raising to protect top pair, but he might have 4B AK pre, it seems less likely that he'd raise worse KX, and we block some of those combos.

It's a tough spot, because we block some top pair and some 2P, but unblock his combo draws, and his raise is setting up a $400 into $800 river jam. If we call, what are we doing on the river?

I dunno. Hard to feel good getting stacks in with just TP2K. Think I might fold here, and live to see another day, even if his line seems a little fishy.

Just read the rest of the thread and the reveal.

Like I said, his line seems fishy. When I see plays like this, I wonder if V thought he was turning TP3K into a bluff, or raising for value and protection. I'd bet he wouldn't be able to explain his raise if we asked him.

Trying not to be biased by knowing the results ...

Agree with your 3bet-bet-bet line, but sizes seem a bit off to me.
Personally, I would go bigger preflop, smaller otf and bigger ott.

As played, V's raise ott looks very value heavy; the only bluffs I can think of are QJdd and J9dd (when they do not raise flop), plus maybe A8dd.
Without info on V, I'd stick to Beluga therorem and fold.