AQss in 2/3 single raised pot

He's loose, but how agressive has he been?

Pre: I prefer 3-bet, and fold to 4-bet, but not overly hating on call (at least not as much as I suspect other posterd will!)

Flop I'd bet 30-40, Turn smaller than nearly pot. What is he repping, perhaps JJ being sticky?

River, I prefer check behind, and if we're going to bet, make it like 130.

Now he's raised, perhaps a slow played QQ, although only one combo. AA/KK a possibility I guess. Or outright bluff???

I think I just let this go unless we've seen him make moves like this. Big river raise is so rarely a bluff.

Fold now, 3 bet preflop.

45d qq 77 kk as all possible
Not sure what you beat
Id have checked river

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Hand seems very fine to me. River is a bet-fold: you picked a good size to target his KQ/QJ/QT hands, but when he raises, you have to recognize that you have just about the worst hand you will ever value-bet this River with—your range for value-betting this River is basically AQ and 66/33 (because I think you find a check here or on Turn with KQs and QJs) and we have to dump the worst of that range when he jams, so AQ goes into the bin.

But I think it’s kind of close, and a call doesn’t strike me as a huge mistake, particularly if you would play all your KQs this way too.

PRE - prefer to 3B, even given the UTG open and sizing. We don't want to encourage multiple calls behind us, or a 3B squeeze.

FLOP - as played pre, and when we're monkey in the middle, I probably just check flop, to see what HJ does, with plans to check raise if HJ bets, or raise turn if UTG makes a delayed c-bet.

TURN - as played pre and on flop, I think we need to check this turn, for some pot control and deception. HJ is going to have more 2P+ than we will here.

RIVER - mixing in some block-betting and check-evaluating here. Our hand isn't strong enough to bet three streets, especially for large sizing on turn and river.

As played, I dunno. What's he repping here? I'd have expected 2P+ to raise turn, for fear of the flush draw coming in. Is he flatting turn and jamming river with 76?

We're getting around 2.5 to 1 on a call, so we need to be good here ~40% of the time. If he has 76 and 54 in his range, then he has 65, maybe 43, and maybe some A5dd in there too. He could also have some worse QX.

Our hand is somewhat under-repped when we didn't 3B pre. V could be over-playing worse value, or he might think we're bluffing and he's just trying to out-bluff us.

It would be helpful to have some reads on this guy. He's vpip'ing a lot, but does he bluff a lot, or make maniacal plays?

Just judging by his description, dudes in their 50-60's wearing Rolex subs and dress shirts seem more likely to show up here with KQ than 2P+, because they tend to have more big cards in their pre-flop flatting ranges. If he seems conservative, he'd probably play conservative. If he seems flashy, he'd probably play wild.

I'm not fist pumping, but I think I might flick in the call here.

Thank you for the responses, will stop 2nd guessing and 3b! Per usual with this hand preflop.

Result: I ended up folding, villain did the whole turn around, grabbed beer glass and took a sip too, I said outloud “this is always 45xx isn’t it” and no response.

Follow up question:
In this scenario, what hands start becoming cuspy from not 3b! And just calling instead?
A10s? KJs?

Thank you

From any position that isn't the BTN or the BB, I play most of my range as raise or fold, so the 3B range is dependent on our position, the position of the initial raiser, stack depth, the stakes, and our reads. Some ranges are very linear in some positions, and more polar in others.

ATs and KJs might be 3B's from the BTN over a CO open, but pure calls of a UTG open. I'm probably not 3B'ing them next to act over a UTG open from a tighter opponent, but might 3B them over a LJ open from a looser opponent if I'm in the.HJ.

It really depends.

I favored a 3bet preflop, then saw that Red Chip poker GTO says after a UTG open, in MP it’s 75 percent call and only 25 percent 3bet. Given the possible betting tell, I would now favor call.

I’m good with the flop bet. I always check the turn.

I favored a 3bet preflop, then saw that Red Chip poker GTO says after a UTG open, in MP it’s 75 percent call and only 25 percent 3bet. Given the possible betting tell, I would now favor call.

I’m good with the flop bet. I always check the turn.

If this guy is VPIPing 50% then going thin for 3 streets is fine, I would fully expect to get looked up by another Queen. Now it's definitely a fold; if you think he's got enough bluffs in him here then it probably should have been a check.

I would always 3bet here but calling isn't automatically terrible, just expect it to go very multiway a lot. Consider a flop check, but on the whole I think postflop is fine.

GTO ranges assume a real strong range for the UTG raiser.

This hand absolutely has enough value to go for 3 streets from your average live low stakes player,, much less someone VPIPing 50%. People saying check behind are missing tons of value on the river by not vb'ing thinly enough.

That being said - it's a check fold here. Plugged KK, 54, 33, Q7, and K5 suited (to rep random bluffs) in to stove and it's roughly -$180 to call. And I think that's over estimating the percent of the time he bluffs here.

Also - not 3b pre is fine. While I think you should be 3bing AQs most of the time, I don't think it's 100% vs an UTG raise.