2/5 "just pay" vs unknown Vegas local

Dude, you're all over the place. You've got the flop as queen high, but then make it king high. The pot would be $75 on the turn, not $60.

It would help to have some more info on V, and some suits for the cards on board and in your hand.

He's repping 2P+. How many combos of 2P+ do you think he has? Why wouldn't he usually be bluffing, when we check back turn instead of barreling?

I'd be betting almost all my KX from the blinds if you checked back a king high board, but also maybe some AX or worse, if I think you're scared of the king and will fold QQ or worse PP's.

Board was K high not Q high.

The suits I don't remember other than there was no FD on the turn. The villain as I said was a complete unknown other than being a local.

Yes. Pot was $75. I forgot the BB called PF.

Anyways I do like your thought process as it was similar to mine at the time but it was also competing against the exploitative "they never bluff river" fold.

I called.

How do we know he's local if he's a complete unknown? Not sure it matters, unless we're assuming he's good just because he's local.

You're saying it's obvious he has the nuts, but...the nuts would be 63. You think he has 63 here? Why can't he just have KT, or AKo, or TT, or 54, or ace high?

If he's good, his line doesn't make a ton of sense with thick value, unless he thinks you're terrible, and is calling you down out of the SB with any two cards, and then expecting you to pay off a river over-bet with one pair, after you check back turn.

I knew he was a local based on the conversation he was having with another local.

Sure the absolute nuts is 63 but there's also the effective nuts based on how the hand was played. Ex: Sets, 2P, and the wheel.

AKo would probably 3B to shut out the BB.

Yes the line doesn't make a lot of sense which is I'm asking.

Theoretically is this a call or fold?

In game I called yet I would've fold in the past.

Seem like a pretty standard call to me.

You should consider pot controlling when you're likely to "run out of value" if you bet every remaining street, or here's a benefit to keeping villain's range wider that outweighs betting, and/or some potential difficulty in facing aggression against your bets (such as against a LAG player). In your turn spot, I see none of these. Bet $50-60 on turn, and I do consider pot controlling here a fairly big leak.

As played, you should legit consider folding every hand that's not KT or better to be honest. From what I've observed dealing 1/3 & 2/5 NL, this is just 2pair+ a **** ton, way too much to consider bluff catching. Perhaps there's enough "worse" value, but I feel like those hands just do something different a lot on river.

Ya. I was thinking on a rainbow board with my turn check that Villain should have worse hands to bluff such as all combos of 67 and one pair with an ace, suited Ax but from a exploitative perspective I should've folded.

Villain turned the wheel holding A3o.

When we're playing less than 100bb deep, maybe we shouldn't be raising KQo from MP.

I don't think V should be flatting A3o out of the SB, facing a 3x raise from an IP player who only starts the hand $400 deep. He's just not getting the correct implied odds, I'd think.

That said, the flop and turn do hit V's range more than ours. I wouldn't expect him to show up with 63, but A3s and 54s might be in his range. So I somewhat understand your turn check-back.

In-game, I'd probably be more likely to barrel turn and check-back river, or fold to a big river donk lead, than to check back turn, and have to figure out what to do facing a river over-bet. As played, I'd think V has enough KT, 54 and occasionally A3 to find a fold, especially given his bet sizing.

V's line makes me think he's not good, or he thinks you're terrible. I wouldn't assume someone is solid just because they're a Vegas local. Every room has its share of bad regs, and even good regs will sometimes attempt a river bluff when opponents show weakness on the turn.

Like I said, if I was your V, I'd be betting all my KX for value on the river, and bluffing with some AX or worse. I probably wouldn't be over-betting, though. I'd think a $50 bet should be enough to get you to fold whatever hands you have that raise pre and c-bet flop but don't barrel turn, or get you to call with QQ if I have KX.

I do think I would bet/fold turn here.

As played, think it's a fold. If this were heads up versus the BB, I would be more likely to call. When Villain is in the SB and the hand is MW, he should have a tighter range from pre-flop and he should be floating the flop with a much tighter range. Basically 76s (or maaaaybe 86s) would be his only bluff, since I don't think Villain has much incentive to turn a small pair into a bluff. Obviously Villain is just way too loose here, which makes my logic look foolish but I do think it's sound in theory.

I don't think calling is too bad though. You've certainly given Villain the green light to bluff after betting small on flop and checking back turn. If Villain bet a smaller size, I would snap.

This is a completely standard open. Offsuit broadway cards that can make strong top pairs increase in value as a shorter stack. Much harder to play deeper with increased reverse implied odds.

Here is CLP's 100BB RFI range for LJ

Fair enough. I wasn't sure if it was an open or not, but logically, I see why it should be. All the more reason I think V shouldn't be flatting with A3o.

Part of my thinking is probably colored by the fact I've gotten into some tricky spots with KQo recently, so it's pegged in my mind as a potential trouble hand. It's surprising how often I've run into someone who slow played AQo pre, or how often I make TP and run into some suited gapper that made 2P.

I was suited but I get your point. Thanks!

10 minutes in, so I'm assuming this is the first or second hand you've played. This board preflop is probably a 1 or 2 streets of value hand. This is a good candidate to check back on the flop. Your pair of Kings requires little/no protection. Unless the table is full of complete droolers, people will notice the strong checking range if you get to showdown This will serve us well in future hands; allowing us to realize equity when we wouldn't normally.

Bet turn.

As played, you have to call top pair on a check-call, check-check, bet line. OK maybe not so much multiway but he's going to float all sorts of backdoory Ax or QJ-type hands which then become mandatory river bluffs. SB could even be going for value with KJ or similar.

Given it was 110 into 75 I would probably just pay it off as he could have 76, 87, or weaker pairs turned into a bluff. You gave him some rope by checking turn. But at the same time, I feel like I am always being shown value here. My rule is not to call big overbeta on rivers without a very nutted hand, but I make some exceptions, IE hand is underrepped, smallish pot. But maybe I should make less exceptions.