Flop a huge draw off a broken stack—Get It In or Keep Them In?
Blinds $1-$2. My stack of $150 is the effective. I just lost $200 on a bluff (raised pre, bet $20-$40-$100 on a QJT66r board, folded to a River raise but in doing so exposed a 5 lol). Did not get my rebuy out in time so playing this on a 75 BB stack.
HAND: HJ opens to $8, CO calls, we call on Button w K9hh, Blinds fold.
FLOP: JhTd7h (pot: $25).
CO c-bets $12, HJ raises to $40.
Do we jam, call, or fold?
8 Replies
I guess we can jam now, but the preflop call is terrible.
Yeah, with this stack, preflop is a fold twice.
Huge draw small stack ship ship.
Unless somebody flashes AQhh its a jam.
I'm going to call. I want the other guy in, and if we see a turn for $40 each then we can probably give up if the board pairs. I'm leaning more towards villain having two pair or three of a kind since we have a nine. Even if he has 89, then folding against that board pairing turn jam doesn't really cost anything anyway. The only reason I see to three bet flop is if villain is likely to show up with a lot of one pair or weaker hands here. In which case we should absolutely go wild and ship, which should look pretty strong and even if they call we're probably slightly favoured anyway.
Not loving it, but it's gotta be a jam.
UPDATE: I actually thought that, in a spot like this where I have essentially no Fold Equity, the best play was to just cold-call the raise. It might get the HJ to over-call (which is fine—gets more money in the pot when I hit)—but also gives me a chance to save money on the off chance CO decides to not bet the Turn (or bet less than $100).
So RESULT: I call, and HJ did overcall. Turn was an offsuit 2. HJ checked and CO bet….just $40 again. Neat! I call again. HJ folded. River was another offsuit 2, CO bets $65 (to put me all-in) and I fold and rebuy.
UPDATE: I actually thought that, in a spot like this where I have essentially no Fold Equity, the best play was to just cold-call the raise. It might get the HJ to over-call (which is fine—gets more money in the pot when I hit)—but also gives me a chance to save money on the off chance CO decides to not bet the Turn (or bet less than $100).
So RESULT: I call, and HJ did overcall. Turn was an offsuit 2. HJ checked and CO bet….just $40 again. Neat! I call again. HJ folded. River was another offsuit
Curious why you believe you have no fold equity?
Even if that's true, I'd still prefer to jam, with all the equity we have, rather than risk our opponents getting away from their hand if we make ours on a later street.
All our outs may not be clean. I'd think we don't mind folding out some marginal hands that are ahead of us like AThh or KJ, when those hands aren't likely to pay us off if we spike a Q, 8, or heart.
