Should I keep bluffing this river after getting my overbet called on the turn?

Bet otf with the bd diamond draw is good.

Over bet ott is good, fold out weak hands like 99.

Jam the river.

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Yeah you need to bet. I don't think you need to jam though. $600 seems fine.

I agree that $600 is likely a fine exploitive play but it is poor range construction and we should be betting like 2/5 pot or jamming.

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I dont love the turn overbet. I suspected that gto is mostly betting 75% pot here, and my suspicion was correct. Usually you would overbet on blank turns and go 50-75% pot on overcards or flush/straight completing cards. Kx is a great card for you, and thats why youre betting it about 70% of the time. I think this big sizing isnt gonna make hands like AQ or KT super happy

Using gto’s highest preferred 75% bet size ott, it bets all non heart JTs otr for about $250-300.

I feel like the overbet ott here seems like when its value its to set up a river jam for, and if i saw a smaller river sizing id probably think its a FD who pussed out on the jam, i feel like im jamming or giving uop.

I wouldn’t overbet river. A river jam is like a 2x PSB, no?

I’d value bluff like 75-80% or so.

I think an overbet polarizes my range way too much to the point that villain can get suspicious. Betting 400-450 puts Qx in a tough spot and folds most of his one pair hands. Kx may not fold to that sizing, but still I cannot risk a check and getting beat by A high flush draw. 50% is way too small

This surprised me before I looked it up. It also doesn't choose to bet w/ diamonds on the turn.

And it also gives up river w/ this combo if it did bet the turn w/ it.

And the bluff sizings on the river are mostly B67 which makes sense to me as you're only trying to fold out all the Ace highs that bricked as his range should be very condensed to Qx, Kx and A high.

river tank makes me want to bet again to be honest. in general though people are going to over fold to the turn overbet so would be looking to give up otr quite a bit in similar situations. his range should be much tighter given he calls a 3.5x from the sb not the bb so theres alot less random one pair hands you can target. i guess id follow through now but its important to realize these double broadway turns are way over bluffed and i think people realize that

Do you overbet turn with AK?

I would be worried about the tank call on the turn. What is he thinking about? Maybe, "Life sucks here OOP with AhTh against a LAG" but also some chance he's thinking about how he can't ever fold QJ to you, or even if just calling 55 again is the best play.
Dito. river thoughts ... is he mentally preparing to call it off vs. 76 or is he wondering if he can donk bluff with missed NFD.

FWIW I think assuming all 55/44 x/r the flop is pretty bad (unless V is pretty bad). I would lean heavily towards call on both, and I'd assume GTO heavily calls 44 and at least mixes 55.

Saying all that we have probably the worst hand we can here and unblock hearts... although maybe prefer Ad6d/Ad7d if we can ever have those.

Yes I would sometimes (not always) overbet strong (not nutted hands) like AK, KJ, KT, Kx on turn to balance my range if I know im against a thinking player. Against a weak player I try to milk some money betting 75-100% pot on turn. Im also overbetting a lot of draws like this one if I feel I can make him fold medium strength hands. Anyways, most players will fold this turn. This is a spot in hold em that is usually overfolded (if you don't abuse it) so most of the time the hand will end on the turn, and when I get called I have good equity on the river. Villain is almost never check raising me after that overbet unless he is some maniac

Yeah i mean i dont think this is wrong. But i will say if i was gonna pick a “wrong” spot to overbet a non thinking V, id do it with air, or a gutshot, not a good draw.

I think this is a good play if any K or A comes since it impacts my range a lot and make it very hard for him to call. 9 or 8 on the turn might also be viable, but I will be called more often by Qx so if I want to keep firing I would bet 66-75% of the pot with those cards.

Posting results of the hand now:

I do find that the long pause and check when first to act is generally a sign of weakness or a hand that wants to get to showdown cheap. I suspect villain had something like QJ or 99.

The alternative is he did have a flush draw and was genuinely condsidering a bluff river lead.

I like the overbet on the turn (and the way you played the hand so far), but what hands are going to call this and then fold the river?

Torn between giving up and a modest sized bet to give yourself the best price possible for clearing out any weakish curious hands. I wouldn't jam though, his range has already been strengthened significantly. You do need to knock out the heart draws though. Don't give him a price which tempts him to check-jam bluff.

I think the K/A is good for your range which is why you bet at a high frequency, but youre targeting Qx and mid PP and 75% pot puts them in a tougher spot than 130% which lets them mostly just fold.

agreed. I'm surprised how often it works for me to freeze a V's IP action.

What sizing would you use? Check raise jamming with a bluff its an extremely risky play, I don't think many players have it on their arsenal, even good thinking players.

Whether or not I'd fire the river would depend mostly on my read of V and the situation, and any live tells.

Looking uncomfortable while tanking on the turn might make me think he had QX, and already wasn't loving it before the K rolled off on the turn.

I'd be less confident trying to make an assumption about what his tank before checking the river might mean. It could be QX pondering a block bet or check-evaluate, or 67 trying to figure out if he should lead out for value or check and let us hang ourselves, after he made an optimistic turn call with an OESD.

The thing about having a LAG image is that we're going to get paid off more when we have value, and looked up more when we bluff. Opponents will also try to trap us more, expecting us to just keep betting thin for value or with our bluffs. So if I think my opponents have me pegged as a LAG, I'll tend to slow down and check back more on the river.

All that said, the specific run-out and V's actions do make me want to fire that last bet. It would help if there were no obvious missed draws, making it less likely V will talk himself into hero calling our bluff.