[2/5] What are you doing on the turn?

With top two pair in a 3bet pot on a double flush draw board, I am happily calling off here. The pot is too big to fold a hand this strong and Villain does not have a ton of combos of nutted hands here. Villain can also have worse hands for value (AJ, KJs) and AK is extremely likely here as well for the chop.

I think this hand was well played up to the decision point as well. Could size up on the turn I guess.

One combo of KJs, 2 combos of AJs, plus possible flush draws Khxh. We block some of them with the As, let's give him 2 combos of flush draws. That's 5 combos we beat. There's 6 combos of JJ/99 and 4 combos of QTs. I wouldn't think. It seems like the thing making it close is the Ah and Ks on board plus the As in our hand limits the flush draws he can have. It feels close. Also making it close is that his flush draws have like 20 percent equity whereas when were beat we have very little. I don't think either decision is a big mistake. If you call and lose it's kind of a cooler but it's close to being a cooler that might be avoidable.
Edit: I forgot the exact board, there's no 9.

AK - 4 combos to chop
AJs - 3 combos (including undiscounted but easily may not be raised on this turn card)

QTs - 4 combos (double gutted on flop) - maybe should discount QhTh a bit but whatever
JJ - 3 combos
88 - 3 combos

So you lose to 10 combos and have about 8% equity. You beat 3 combos outright and chop with 4. Getting slightly better than 2:1 it looks like a crying call, depending how you weight AJ or throw in other combos like KhQh (pretty unlikely line imo). In these spots I often wonder if, even if it's a +$20 EV call, would I rather just fold and not risk that last $380. lol

This is hard but it really seems like QThh would take this exact line no

Can't we also discount JJ and 88 for not raising the flop? And is QTs always defended from EP out of position facing a >3x 3bet at 120bb? Villain is described as "fairly TAG" which is how I would describe myself, and I would happily fold QTs pre in this configuration (88 too, for that matter).

I would more strongly discount AJ than JJ/88 given the combination of flop action + turn card + turn action, so it would affect both sides of the equation for me and not make a major difference.

I would need more info than 30min to start assuming the guy would fold 88/QTs to a button 3-bet.

I'd expect a flop check raise with that hand because they don't even care if it all goes in on the flop.

I think it's possible QTs and 88 are folded pre but I don't think JJ and 88 would raise flop all the time. With the Ah on board we have fewer flush draws that the oop would need protection from. IP player will continue betting the turn with AK/AQ/AJ so were not missing out on some value by not raising flop with sets. On a board that should favor the 3bettor I wouldn't be raising flop very often. I think x/calling with sets is not unusual in this spot

Preflop: Good.

Flop: You could bet a hair larger, but $55 is definitely not a mistake.

Turn: I like the bet. After the raise, call the shove. AJ, A8s, KJ, and combo draws are all in his range and outright bluffs will even show up a small percentage of the time. This more than makes up for the times he slowplayed a flopped set or got adventurous with QT.

Just my opinion...

Easy call, well played. You dont need to bet bigger with any sort of hand cuz you are setting up to GII for under pot otr. Could tweak sizing ott up by like $10-15, but so minor its fine.

I'm with the consensus - it's close, but just about a call. Everything else good so far - definitely betting the turn

Without counting V's combos, I feel that we are way behind here on the turn.

If "Villain is solid" is true, we as the 3 bettor we had all the AK,KK, AA; V check-raised on the turn was certainly representing sets +, and hoped desperately you called with AK.

It's not easy to fold top two though.

Tru tru

One thing I always think about on boards like these is "they always put you on AK".

With the Ah OTB and the As in your hand, I think this is a fold. If he is bluffing, so be it.

Thanks everyone.

Sounds like either decision has merit so I'm glad calling wasn't a clear punt. Before calling I thought JJ was a had that made a lot of sense here, but even so, I also decided if I was folding top two here, that was way too tight of a fold based on a 30 minute assessment of a player being "solid."

I called it off and V did have JJ for the loss. Onto the next one!

I wrote a long post, but since results have been revealed I'll just say when a tight guy piles money OTT he can probably beat top two. I think the preflop action makes ranges very tight and I don't see much value in betting the turn. We aren't getting three streets vs worse very often (very easy to put us on AK). The only way we can call the shove is if we think he's spazzing with two pair/AQ/Khxh, which I don't think is very likely. I would've checked behind the turn and hoped to get value from AQ on the river/evaluate vs a bet.

Well thanks for replying your thoughts anyway. I kept thinking I should have folded but don't want to be results oriented either.

I think you have a good point that a turn bet isn't a good idea for value, but would you ever consider making a turn bet to charge draws? I guess the question then turns into what draws does a solid player with a smaller range have that makes it to the turn and spazzes, which you already acknowledged is unlikely.

There's a lot of draws here. If he hooked a set, then good for him, you got stacked. Just call it.