$1/$3 Turned flush, how do I maximize on river w very wet board
Hand is a $1/$3 NLH hand but I'm in a ROE game that just started. We've played an orbit and half of PLO and not quite an orbit of NLH.
Villain is a lot tighter than most of the players in the PLO hands, probably the only player at the table (other than myself) that is folding unraised hands preflop. So, I'm assuming he's taggish although he does limp in this one.
Effective stacks are ~$700
Villain is UTG+1 and limps for $3
There are several other limpers
I'm in the SB w T ♥ 5 ♥ and I complete (mostly out of boredom, its early in the session but I haven't played any hands yet)
BB checks.
Flop ($15) J ♥ 7 ♣ 3 ♥
I lead out for $6
BB folds
Villain raises to $30
Folds to me
I call $30
Turn ($75) K ♥
I check
Villain bets $75
I call
River ($225) Q ♠
Hero ???
Maybe I should have check raised the turn but I think I fold too much out that way? On the river I'm not really thinking of checking...he checks back w everything worse than a straight I think and while he might fire w bluffs I'm not sure he's going to have air after raising my flop bet and potting it on the turn. Just wasn't sure what to do with sizing. Leaning towards a small bet ($90ish) that is an easy call, think I could comfortably fold to raises. Just not sure how to maximize.
4 Replies
Hard to get paid here. I might bet really small, like $50 or $75, hoping it looks fishy and he raises with a straight or whatever.
Preflop: Junk suited for a 2/3 bet completion is close, but I'd probably throw the 2 bucks in also for image reasons.
Flop: Check. On a loose table a bet is unlikely to take the pot down, but it could fold out hands that could improve to decent second place hands that will pay you off if a heart hits. If the action checks around and you get a free card that's no problem, and if it looks like someone is trying to pick up the pot as a steal you can always check/raise as a semi bluff.
As played, after the bet, fold. You're out of position against a TAG. If the heart hits you're unlikely to get big action off him unless he's drawing to a better flush.
Turn: As played, check/call. Against looser players I would raise, but the heart will probably scare off a TAG if you blast away here.
River: Check/reraise small. If your opponent was value betting something like AJ I think he's unlikely to give you any more action regardless of your line, but with any 2 pair or better he's likely to value bet given the line you've taken. If this happens you can milk a little more value out of him with a small raise.
Just my opinion...
T5s is too junky for me to play even on the Button, so I'm not going to play it OOP (the small $1 discount meaningless versus the RIO).
Against the world with far from a nuttish draw I just check/evaluate. Would really only consider donking the nut draw.
And I probably fold to the raise. We're getting rather poor immediate odds and OOP with an obvious non-nuttish draw (so poor IO).
I would donk like half pot or so on the turn. Far too good a chance this checks back destroying our IO. As played, I'm now actually quite concerned I'm behind facing this large bet when the obvious draw completes. I call and evaluate the river.
Yeah, river is a tricky spot (and really illustrates how sucky it is to play OOP). Due to there not being many busted draws on the flop that he can continue bluffing (54?), think I lean to a small bet/fold.
GcluelessNLnoobG
I don't think we can assume much about his NLHE style based on how he plays PLO. I definitely wouldn't assume he's TAGish when he limps UTG.
It's hard for me to credit V with many better flushes when he raises our flop bet, especially so large, after limping in pre from UTG. Maybe he does that with Ah7h, but that's about it.
His raise looks more like J7, or 33, or maybe some sort of combo draw as a semi-bluff, the most obvious one being 9h8h, though he could also have 6h4h. But I definitely wouldn't peg him as TAG if he's raising 98s or 64s here.
V's pot-sized turn bet on the Kh looks like a protection bet, like he's got 2P with J7 or a set with 33, or a worse flush that doesn't want to see any more cards.
The Q on the river kinda sucks, in that he's never getting here with some combo that makes a straight. He could have some decent 2P combos, like KJ or QJ, or 33, or 77, but other than 9h8h and 6h4h, there's not much else in his value range that can pay us off. I wouldn't expect even J7 to pay us off now.
Once we call his pot sized turn bet, I think he's checking back this river a ton, and over-folding if we bet big.
No idea what his bluffs would be, if we were trying to induce one. Maybe Ah7x, if he's wild enough to raise flop with that, or AhJx. Maybe QhJx. But I wouldn't expect him to try bluff-raising us, the way this hand was played. If we bet small and he raises, I think we have to call.
I think the best we can hope for is to get a crying call if we bet $75. If we have a bluffy table image, maybe we can occasionally depolarize and over-bet, and get looked up light.