Facing all-in on river with flush on paired board.
Blinds: 1/3/6.
Players 8.
Effective stacks 1120.
Pre flop.
Straddle is on.
UTG raises to 20, it folds to me on the button with KdQd, and I make the call. The straddle also calls.
Flop.
Jh 10d 7d
The straddle leads for 25, UTG raises to 150. I make the call. The straddle folds.
Turn.
Jd
UTG bets 300. I call.
River.
3s.
UTG goes all-in for 650.
Tough spot. I've played against this player quite a bit, and he usually has it when he bets big. I don't beat much. It feels kinda nitty to fold here, not really sure what to do.
Your thoughts would be appreciated.
Why are we assuming that V won't be overvaluing himself here? I've seen plenty of bad regs take this sort of line overplaying their overpairs. The pot size rr on the flop screams fishy behavior to me, considering this is a board that connects more with the callers than the pf raiser. The large sizing in a 3way pot also indicates possibly that V only cares about absolute strength rather than relative strength.
With player reads and history, this becomes a spot where I would be more willing to call down. If I just sat down, I would be 3betting small pf and folding to a big 4b.
As played, I'd try to get read on the player and probably sigh call. I agree that since you called the turn, the river changes nothing, and you could have worse flushes here, I think KQdd becomes a hand you should call here, albeit on the lower end of your calling range.
The straddle and BTN could have all the 2P, sets, and straights on the flop. V could certainly raise the smallish flop donk with some over-pairs, but when we flat call from the BTN, that should give him pause. We look really strong.
When the turn brings in the flush and pairs the top card on board, how many low stakes players are going to continue barreling with their over-pairs, when it should be obvious that they beat nothing at this point?
Jx is tripped up. 89 is a straight. Any two diamonds are a flush. JT, TT, and 77 are boats. JJ is quads. V would have to be really bad to continue betting over-pairs for value, or really brave to turn his over-pairs into bluffs.
It's just an extremely under-bluffed spot.
