Bottom Set Decisions on Flop & Turn - Monochrome Flop

With only 1 person left to act, I think betting is fine here. I might go smaller, but I don’t hate your sizing.

With several shorter stacks in play, we’re basically just going to have to stack off on the flop with this hand unless something crazy happens like CO raises off the deeper stack and a player behind jams.

Bottom set should always be a bet since you’re way more likely to get action from top pair or top two.

Looks solid so far. If youre regularly going 5 ways, id raise larger.

Lol I think the sizing is terrible, I wouldn't ever go above $20 here with any hand and prefer $15 over $20.

So here's where the hand starts to get rather interesting. CO, one of the more solid players at the table, flats, as does the SB. BB, who on a previous hand called a 7 straddle and then a BB raise to 46 with 63hh, then called a 50 cbet on 9c7c3x, jams for 139 total. +1 shrug-folds, and action is back on me. Flat? Iso-rip it? Can we ever fold?

I am re-jamming to isolate. CO and SB are somewhat capped, although it's possible one of them is trapping the NF, and you have equity against a flopped flush anyway. I also think a lot of fish will still call your re-jam with hands like AdTx, so there isn't much risk of missing additional value.

If you ran into TT here it's just a cooler. There is so much dead money in the middle and that is the only hand you are really dead to.

I'd probably either check flop to let CO stab at it, or I'd c-bet smaller, 1/3 pot or less, maybe even just 1/4 pot, since it's a monotone board and we're so multi-way.

On a wet or monotone board, I think I prefer to just check. We don't mind seeing what everyone else does before we decide what our play is.

If we c-bet, it should be small. We want loose calls or someone to raise. Not too worried about giving the draws a free or cheap card when we're in LP and can still boat up.

We're never folding to the BB jam. CO would likely raise our bet with a made flush, at least some of the time, so he could be on a draw. Probably just shrug-re-jamming here, since we can't call and then fold turn if CO jams for around $150.

Yeah I agree I am just jamming here. It’s not an incredible spot and the presence of the CO is particularly uncomfortable but I think this hand is good enough and the pot has gotten really big. Would be curious if there are posters that would advocate for a fold here because I know I have been guilty of overplaying a set on a mono board before.

Part of the reason to go with it here is that BB can easily have every combo of QTo that plays this way. There are also a number of AsXx or KsXx hands that are intuitive semi-bluffs that many players will find.

I can recall four pots I played, where I flopped a set on a monotone board...

Hand 1 - flopped bottom set with 55 as the PFR in late position, SRP, heads-up with V in MP. C-bet flop when V checked to me. V called. Turn checked-through. Bet 2/3 pot when I rivered quads, only losing to straight flush, and V checked to me again. V folded.

Hand 2 - flopped middle wet with 99 on a T-high board as PFR in EP, with 4 opponents, SRP, all behind me. Flop checked through. Check-called on an off-suit K turn. Went for a check-raise on an off-suit K river, but V just checked back with QJ (turned straight), no flush blockers.

Hand 3 - flopped bottom set with 22 in the BB in a limped pot, 3-ways with V's in MP and on . Led out for 1/3 pot. Two callers. Turn was another flush card. Checked through. River was yet another flush card. Check-folded when MP bet ridiculously small, like 1/3 pot.

Hand 4 - flopped top set with 77 in EP, in a 3-way, 3B pot, as the original PFR, but not the 3B'er, who was 3B from the blinds. He checked to me on the flop, I bet 2/3 pot. Action folds back to him, and he jams. I call. He has the nuts, and holds, to stack me.

Never felt totally comfortable flopping a set on a monotone board, unless I improved. But was recently watching a video or reading something about approaching these situations in a way that considers our opponent's entire range, rather than assuming they always have a flush. Our sets can still get value from worse hands.

That hit me hard, because my experience has been that opponents rarely flop the nut flush in multi-way SRP's, and will generally let us know the strength of their hands by way of their actions. Even in 3B pots, our opponents' ranges will generally be weighted more towards big PP's than SC's.

That's not to say BB NEVER has the nuts here, but we'd expect him to raise off AXs pre at least some of the time. Likewise, the SB and CO are probably going to raise off their flushes rather than flat call the flop, especially their vulnerable flushes. And we have to wonder how often SB or BB would donk-lead with their flushes, instead of checking.

If we give our opponents a range that includes some 2P, some 1P + a draw, some draws with no pair, and some weak flushes, we're not doing very poorly against that range, whether they call or fold to our jam. If they all have flush cards in their hands, we're doing pretty well. Even if one or more opponents already has us beat, we can still boat up.

Responses seem to be leaning toward a shove. I opted to call (not sure it's the proper decision, but I can't change the past...perhaps the future!). CO thinks briefly, and calls as well, and the SB calls all-in for 90 total, creating a main pot (four ways) of roughly $420, a side pot (three ways) of $147, and action remaining between two players.

Turn (420 main; 147 side; 0 second side): QdTd6d 4d. I check, CO jams for 160.

Now it's a math problem. I assume that I'll win the whole thing if the board pairs, unless (as someone mentioned earlier) one of the three players has TT. This means I have ten board-pairing outs (minus any that the others in the pot might have). There are 46 unknown (to me) cards, so I'm a 3.6 to 1 dog on getting there. There's 727 in the pot, and I need to call 160, so I'm getting a little over 4.5 to 1 on the call. Seems like I'm getting the right price, especially since any diamonds the others have mean there's an even better chance for me of doubling, as there will be fewer than 36 "bad" cards for me on the river. I call. Thoughts?

You say CO is one of the better players? It's kind of weird for him to have AdX here, but I guess he can have a few combos.

I bet less on flop, but after that multiway I'm not sure it matters much if you shove or call (assuming you plan to shove non-diamond turns).
If it wasn't a dry side pot I like call a lot more.

x/c on turn is pretty std.

Our outs are probably not live with hands like Qx with diamond, Tx with diamond, 2 pairs, flushes in the mix. So we probably have a lot less equity than we would like to have with this hand even vs. a made flush. I would just fold facing this action considering are likely not realizing our raw equity.

Don't mind a flop check I think the sizing you chose is a little OD so something like 15 might be more appropriate. It's better to play these monotones very passively, so I lean towards check given the straight draw present here as well.

Out of curiosity, roughly how much volume do you put in the games (hours/year)? I am asking because I try to play at least once/week, a few hours each time, and I take notes of hands I played. However I have not flopped any sets on a monotone board at least this year so far and the whole 2023.

I wonder whether it's because my sample size is too small, or it is just ridiculously dry?

I play once per week. Sessions range from 2-3 hours to 10-12 hours.

Two of those hands were from at least a year ago. I don't take notes on hands, so those were just four hands that stuck out in my memory, because of how they played out, what was going on at the time (I was stuck, I was sun-running, etc), and the opponents (super-nit reg, super-maniac reg, terrible rec-fish, etc).

Flopping sets is hard. Monotone boards aren't overly frequent. Flopping a set on a monotone board is thus a somewhat rare occurrence.

I have lines I like to take on extreme boards (monotone, trips, two aces, etc), but usually I'm taking those lines with total air. Figuring out how to navigate post-flop, on a monotone board, with thick value, in a multi-way pot, can be challenging, especially since there isn't a lot of content dedicated to these more uncommon scenarios.

All that said, I might also be a luck-box. I seem to hit more than my fair share of high hands, judging by what others tell me regarding their own experience. I may be flopping more sets than the rest of the player pool.

Thanks very much for sharing. If you don't take notes your memory is very impressive!

In terms of luck, math is that you are supposed to hit it once every 8.5 times with enough samples. I believe I am at the other end of luck distribution that it has been quite a while recently I waited for 35 pockets pairs (excluding those fold pre) to flop my first set, and my v doesn't have one single pair in that hand. That's why regarding op's post, I can only recall what I have seen on the table, but I myself haven't been in similar spot for a long time.

I'm still sticking in the games though.

Just looking at the all-in V, and assuming they actually have a flush, we're still only a 34/66 dog to them on the flop, and there's quite a bit of dead money here.

If this action happened on a blank turn, we're now a 23/77 dog. Which induces me to want to bet this flop vs waiting on CO (who may check behind). I don't want to give a free card to a group of 4 Vs who might not actually have a flush yet. Whether that bet is 20, 30, or 40, I don't know.

Ideally, I wouldn't mind another V besides BB all-in with H on the flop. That, plus the dead money, should make our call +EV, provided no one has TT or lol, QQ.

I'm not sure if I have the math right on this next idea. Should H iso-shove now, likely securing the 70 in dead money this round from CO and SB, to ensure we see 5, even if BB does have the flush? (Another reason for a larger cbet; if there is a flop call of that larger cbet by other Vs, any shove/reshove by us makes the dead money bigger?)

Or is better to flat, see if SB and/or CO call, to make any turn or river shove more profitable, despite H needing (neglecting card removal) to overcome a 23/77 deficit?

Doc, first thanks for the earlier part of your post. It's surprising how reticient Vs can be when you actually have it. Only trimming for space, and (mainly) to briefly point out that a lot of fish will simply close the action with a suited Ace, and a bunch of people to get a squeeze through. Especially on something like A7s. So, I don't think we can infer the call by BB as eliminating a suited ace. Except maybe AK.

It doesn't matter: H is at 34% v a flush except in situations like KJdd here, but the "I'll just call," is how I used to think there, and so might shed some light here.

Having seen the latest action now, disagree that CO or SB are doing with is QXdx or TXdx. I mean, would you continue with those hands?

BB and H are saying, I have or might beat a flush. *Maybe* either SB or CO has the AdQx And/or maybe KJdd is in play. But a naked T and Q? Ok, maybe H is on 9 outs, not 10. I can't see it being worse than that.

Call.

I played a six hour session about a year ago, which was very strange, in that I was dealt at least 40 or 50 pocket pairs, which was WAY more than I should have been dealt. I probably should have been dealt 9 or 10. And yet I didn't flop any sets, which is way LESS than we should expect. If we get 40-50 PP's, we should flop about 4 to 6 sets.

There was another session recently, in which I was dealt a lot of really good starting hands as soon as I sat down, but ended up having to fold on the flop every time. It was two hours before I dragged a pot.

It goes like that sometimes. I had a session a few weeks ago, where I just got smacked with the deck for a couple hours straight. Last year I had a session where I got hit with the deck for five hours straight. Other times, I can go hours without being dealt a playable hand, or dragging a pot.

There's a 2/5 reg in my local card-room (Parx), who's earned a reputation for possibly being the unluckiest man alive. He told me he booked over 200 losing sessions in a row. It sounds like an exaggeration, but multiple other regs confirmed the guy's been running bad as far back as any of them can remember.

There's a 1/3 reg in the same room, who likewise earned a reputation for being an absolutely insane luck-box. I've seen him get stacks in on the wrong side of a set over set scenario, and hit a one-outer more than a few times. One session I watched him VPIP around 66%, and flop 2P at least half the time.

The math of card distribution is just math. While the player pool in the aggregate will regress to the mean (2/3 will be within one standard deviation of the average), half the player pool will experience better than average card distribution, half will experience worse, and 1/3 will diverge so much from the average that they appear to be cursed or blessed.

I check flop as I'm not looking for 3 streets 4 ways here, would much rather see a brick turn or board pair and know that flush draws have less equity. Need for protection goes down MW and also youre not that deep to the flop.

I think a check is fine, even as the 3rd of 4. Would def. check as the 1st or 2nd of 4. More important to bet smaller if/when you do bet though.
More important to check a decent amount at 2-5 and up, at 1-2 people do bad/weird things and population is big enough it's probably fine if you never check bottom set.
Also surprised that Stupidbanana is the one saying it 😉.

Uhm...you're welcome?

Like I said, I wasn't saying BB never has a flush. But even fish will find a raise pre with enough suited AX that we can discount some nut flushes that want to jam a short stack. He might limp all his worst suited aces, but he's probably finding a raise with all the suited Broadway aces.

Likewise, if V is just a bad rec-fish, we should consider there's some 1 diamond hands in his range that are drawing, and also consider that a fish might not want to fast play a nutted hand, and might instead prefer to slow-play.

I guess the point is, I'm not trying to get inside my opponent's head playing against fish at 1/2. We flopped bottom set, we're not getting away from it for this price, we have a decent chance to improve if we're behind (we probably are), and I'm not convinced we're always behind.

I'm definitely not flat calling here with the intention of possibly folding. I MIGHT flat call in the hopes that CO jams behind us, if I think he's a ramblin' gamblin' sort of man. I don't think calling here would be terrible, when the CO didn't raise. When the CO and SB both flat our bet, and the BB jams, they might all be drawing to the same flush.

I mean, what else can they have here, other than QT, KJ, or J9? What the hell else can they possibly call with, when we bet this flop?

Admittedly - I'm willing to lose $151 at 1/2 more readily than I'd be if this was 2/5 and BB started the hand with $375. I know I shouldn't approach this situation differently based on the stakes, but I think we're going to see a lot more random nonsense at 1/2 than we'll see at 2/5.

I like going $15 aka quarter pot. But to be honest his size isn't terrible. Small size or check multiway is very often going to be the correct action in theory, but going I doubt going half pot is drastically going to alter your EV here.

As played I would just rejam over the initial jam on the flop. SPR will be less than 1 if you call so really no point in just calling.

As played calling turn.

River bricked. CO wins with AdQx (flopped top pair top kicker nut flush draw). BB had J2dd (LOL) & unfortunately left the table after this hand. No idea what the SB had.

In retrospect, I like re-jamming on the flop. I'm still not winning the hand, but MIGHT have saved 160 if CO folds out. My thinking in moment was to see a 'safe' turn & then jam. I also wasn't expecting that both CO and SB would call.

For those advocating a smallish 15-20 flop bet, are you doing so for value or protection? I chose the larger sizing as I felt this situation called for protection against four villains, any of which can have a high diamond that would likely call at least one bet. As we saw, CO was willing to call & re-call on the BB shove with one such hand, so we were getting value AND protection from certain non-made flush hands.