AKo 1/3 - 470 eff

You're at an SPR of <3 on the flop HU with TPTK on a super dry board. I don't think it really matters when the money goes in, assuming you believe Villain stacks off with worse.

In fact, what hands are you giving to Villain when he calls your turn bet?

I think the sizings are good, sets up a nice river shove which you’d be doing with bluffs as well.

I probably go bigger flop/turn, but I rarely make those small bets. On this flop, though, it's OK. I just want to be able to shove the river with less so he has to shrug call and not consider folding.

Maybe 66, doubt 22 ,KJs+ and AK, and underpairs from 77-QQ possibly. IÂ’ve yet to see anyone in this game call a 3b in position with KK-AA.

Also is there a river we aren’t jamming?

I'm not ruling out KK/AA given the PF action, but I agree those hands seem less likely. Which of his worse hands do you believe are calling the river shove vs. the hands which call and win/chop?

The only worse hands I see possibly calling are QQ/JJ and maybe KQ. AA/KK/66/TT/55 all beat you.

Mathematically, it may not even matter much what you do on the river, as long as you don't fold.

Another reason I like going a little bigger flop/turn is to make the jam a no-brainer on Q or J river, which are really the only cards I'm not thrilled with.

SPR is barely over 2? 400 with 160 out there? bet bet shove or bet shove are both reasonable lines imo on this board/runout. If it was like K62r-Q-J I'm 100% slowing down.

Maybe an Ace

Why not? Are you betting smaller?

Flop’s good.

I personally think there’s still enough bluffs in our range on this turn that I’d rather have a big size strat and often check this hand specifically (often stuffing river), but other strats are probably visible. Hard to go wrong on a dry K-high flop as Preflop 3ber with a low spr.

Reverse turn and river cards and I prolly play it this way…

Hm, unknown MAWG making it 7x behind two limpers, definitely gonna be pretty nutted here. Just ran my BB 3! vs 10% raising range through Flopzilla and we should have top pair+ over 50% of the time (and the range doesn’t even include all AK).

So not nearly as many bluffs as I thought. Can prolly b/b/shove with small sizes pretty recklessly here and only check a street with the obvious high split pair and TPMK type hands.

Still jamming 90% of the time but maybe mix in some small bets or checks

If its a non ace then im just always jamming.

PRE - looks good.

FLOP - I'm usually checking range from OOP as the PFR. If I'm going to c-bet, I'd probably go larger, maybe 2/3 pot.

Since V opened over two limps, then flat called your raise, he can have worse KX, or just a PP he doesn't want to let go of yet. Maybe he shows up with some AX that wants to float. Hard for him to have AA or AK, or 2P.

All that said, the <1/4 pot bet might induce him to raise with his flopped sets, or worse value, or possibly even raise as a bluff, and gives him too good a price not to continue with a good number of his worse hands. Also, the board is so dry, and we block a lot of his top pair combos. So I don't hate the small c-bet size, but we could probably go a little larger, like $50 or $60.

TURN - the 5 brings in 65 and 43 (if he's playing that loose), but unless it adds a BDFD, it's pretty much a brick. If there's a BDFD, I'd prefer to size up and bet huge, like an over-bet. With the remaining stack size, I'd probably just jam.

If the board is still rainbow, it's still pretty dry. A smaller bet is probably still okay, but I might make it a little bigger, like $100, around 40% pot. I just prefer to get as much value as possible on earlier streets, before an action killing card rolls off.

RIVER - the T is mostly just another brick, unless he was hanging on with KT or TT. Other than KQ and KJ, it's hard to think of too many worse hands that will call another bet of any size, much less a jam.

Maybe V can't fold KX. Maybe he levels himself into thinking we've got AQ and we're trying to rep AA, so he bluff catches us, but that's pretty optimistic. I'd expect 2P and sets to raise flop or turn.

It seems like V was hanging on with some worse pair, or maybe A4s/A3s hoping to make a wheel. If we check, he's probably checking back a lot.

We definitely need to bet something, but I think I'd probably bet really small, like $100, hoping it looks bluffy and he sticks the rest in, or just sigh calls with KQ/KJ. I think a jam just folds out everything we beat. All we're doing is possibly pushing him off a chop with AK, and that also seems somewhat optimistic.

This is the problem with betting small on flop and turn. We've let V realize his equity for a cheap price, and somewhat handcuffed ourselves to betting small again.

If we bet $60 on flop and 40% pot ($115) on turn, there would have been $515 in the pot going to the river, with only $220 back. If we shove then, V will be getting over 3.3:1 on a call, and will be hard pressed to fold worse KX.

thanks for replies, villain snapped my jam on river with TT gg

So THAT explains why this post is here 😃

Yet another reason I hate those small flop bets. I know, he got lucky, but at least make him pay more for it, especially when we don't plan to fold.