2/3, Too Thin or Go for it?

I bet more on flop. River kind of sucks, but I doubt he checks a flush. Bet anywhere from $150 to all in. Kind of need a table read.

Sounds right.

In these situations, I lean on the old Sklansky question of "am I over 50%" against the villain's calling range?" if I'm betting for value. There's enough to make the bet of 150.

I honestly think this is too thin readless

Fold preflop. If you’re getting four callers with a 5x+ open raise, opening 44 UTG is too loose.

I agree with the others on a small bet on the river. If V jam-raises, it’s a gross spot, but I would fold. Even though you have no read, given the player pool, you can assume V is a loose-passive.

I would agree with you---[as V, why would H bomb a flush draw? Then when the flush does come in, why expect that H would bomb again?]---except that lot of LL Vs will think: H bombed turn, let's see if H does it again. Ignoring that the nuts changed. Maybe H has been aggressive throughout the session, and V believes that this will induce H to bet again?

I'm checking back. And probably losing value.

Fold pre

Depends on player pool obviously, but I auto-tag unknowns at these stakes as more loose-passive pre/weaktight-post, especially if this isn’t the smallest game in the room. People who stackoff with TPGK facing aggression on every street when every draw in the world completes gets a special calling station designation. I think poker in my area leans relatively solid though.

Coming back to this hand because vbetting less thin than the LLSNL blob has kinda kept me up at night. We prolly woulda heard from 76 and sets by now and not worried about bare A2, so we’re not value cutting ourselves TOO much, but as I said above I think a shove is too ambitious. Betting 1/3p and enticing a call from TPGK and exploiting the fact they’ll never shove worse might be a fine way to milk an extra 50bbs.

Results:

Sounds like I chose the worst option, I jammed and get called by KJss

I mean that’s a pretty sick run out obviously. Don’t hate the jam.

Definitely a preflop fold.

Going 1/3 on the flop when it's 5-way is never going to be a bad thing but I wonder if you could be greedier. Perhaps a check-raise given you're OOP. But your option may well be best.

After following up with a big turn bet and getting called (good) the main questions are will a bet get called by a Jack? And is the outcome of that going to be affected by your sizing? If he calls some Jx to a smaller sizing but not to a larger sizing, will the extra money you win when your larger bet gets called make up for the value you lose when you fold out a weak Jack?

With a possible straight, backdoor flushes and some higher sets out there, it is a little thin, but I don't hate a bet and I think all-in is a reasonable size.

You also wrote: main villain, male around age 45, put together, wearing a Packers shirt

How do you expect to beat a man who's "put together"? Also, wtf does this even mean?

It means he's wearing his Packers shirt with cuff links.

Pre was loose and I agree bet more otf at least hp. If no one has a hand, they don't have a hand. I'm tryna get stacks in at some point.

We have less than a psb otr, it was 320 into 440 so if you think he's gonna call a jam then jam but I would go smaller for value trying to get a call (and I'm calling a raise ofc). Hand is just a small cooler, nothing you can do really.

Generally speaking you can raise your normal range over a single limp, however from this position 44 is only a 33% raise (according to a solver-thing I have on my phone). Unless table is extremely passive and we can count on often getting it HU in position, I would probably just try to limp along here.

On the flop I think it's important to note that:

1) We unblock top pair.
2) Middle pairs between 5 to J will call almost any sizing here, same with any Jack.

As of such I think we can easily go between $60-$90 on flop here. I have probably made the same mistake as you with sizing many times, but against this many players and on this board we are bound to get at least one call even for a bigger sizing IMO. I am sure theory says to go small this multi-way, but we are probably leaving money on the table by doing so.

It's also important to note that Jx of spades is available, as the Jack on the flop was not a spade. 67 also comes in on turn, so there are some stuff that beats you out there. Not saying I wouldn't value bet river, but it's a icky spot where you made the pot quite big with the turn-sizing. And it's now hard to find a sizing where we could ever consider bet-folding river if he check-jams.