Is this a punt or a good jam?
Hi all,
I was playing some $1/$3 at my local casino last night:
PREFLOP
Folds to the LJ, a new young player who's finding his feet. He opens to $12 and the C/O and BTN both call. I'm in the SB with K♣J♣ - and figure this is a good opportunity to squeeze, so I raise to $70. Only the button calls. He has $320 behind and I have him covered.
FLOP ($152 after rake)
T♥ 7♦ 6♣
I've whiffed, but I have backdoors and overcards, and I've seen villain make several tight folds in the past. So my plan is to bet small on the flop and hopefully get a fold. If he calls, I'll reassess on the turn. If the right card comes I'll keep barreling, otherwise I may slow down. Out of position I sometimes elect to play a two-street game, so when I bet the flop I'm going to leave about pot behind on the turn and try to balance with two-thirds value, one third bluffs if I decide to jam the turn. I bet $55, villain calls.
TURN ($262)
T♥ 7♦ 6♣ Q♥
Ding ding ding! I've turned an open-ender, and the Q is a great card to apply maximum pressure to any Tx hands and other weak one-pair holdings that called the flop and have now been downgraded. I'm going to jam approximately KQ+ for value here, which is quite a wide range after I 3bet preflop and bet the flop (all KK and AA etc too). I need to balance this with bluffs/semi-bluffs, and this hand feels like a great candidate. It's not ideal that the turn brings a flush draw, but I was willing to take my chances there (villain wouldn't be getting the right price to call anyway, but many low stakes villains will of course still call it off). He's ostensibly capped his range with the call on the flop (despite it being good for his range) and I'm confident that a jam is going to get through a large percentage of the time. If he happens to call, I still have an open-ender as my backup plan. In other words, the stars are aligned here, and it's time to blast off. I jam for $265. Villain snaps and says "I hope you didn't hit that queen". Uh-oh...
RIVER ($792)
T♥ 7♦ 6♣ Q♥ 9♥
Villain turns over TT for a slow-played set. Farewell stack...
