River decision against competent player with bottom boat

Ack, of course you're right. As I was typing, I was thinking about equities on the flop, not on the turn.

Regardless, we need to look at implied odds, not just direct pot odds. Starting out 400 deep, there's still enough stack depth left behind that I wouldn't want to give sets or 2P the right IO to continue, so I'd bet bigger on the turn.

Pre call is bad. Never call in the SB! Chart I have in MPT actually has 55 as being indifferent. So you can fold or raise but you can't call. You are oop, you do not close the action, your hand has zero post flop playability.

Think flop you need to raise more for value and protection like to 100. You unblock lots of hands that you beat that can call like pair plus draw or 2p.

River you can only check if you think villain can have a hand that will bet that won't call you. I don't think that is the case here so you need to bet. Also I don't think he will bluff you so check call is the worst option. Seeing results of you check it looks like it's check fold but that's just silly so you need to bet.

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Also if you check river when you get there, why call turn without direct odds , or you think you can be ahead here quite often?

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These are good points. Flop raise could and likely should be bigger, with bottom set on this dynamic board.

Maybe V will go for thin value with some over-pairs, trips, or a straight, but after hero x/r's flop, V would have to be targeting hands like 85 or 98. Seems fairly unlikely unless V is terrible or very aggro about getting thin value.

Hard to find what bluffs V has on the river. Perhaps just un-paired over cards that picked up some draw on the turn, but bricked out. But what loon bluffs a paired board after getting check raised on the flop, and called on the turn?

I'm guessing a solver might like to bluff with some combos that would be very unintuitive for a human, like low PP's or similar.

Thanks for posting this hand, OP. It forced me to think about what I'm doing in the SB. I'd have said I'm playing my entire range as raise or fold, but this hand made me realize I probably do have a flatting range. And this flop smacks the hell out of it.

I was thinking about it last night, and realized that how much I have on this flop will depend on my read of V. If he's LAG, I'm 3B'ing 99/88/77 pre, but flatting 55/66, 64s, JTs, and some 96s. If he's TAG, I'm flatting 55-99, JTs, and some 64s, but folding 96s. If he's nitty, I'm probably just flatting 55-99 and JTs and folding the rest.

So depending on my read of V, I could potentially have almost every combo of 2P, sets, and straights on the flop, as well as a lot of 1P + a draw combos, and some 2 overs + a draw combos.

That's part of why I think the BTN misplayed this. He can have all the over-pairs, Broadway combos, and suited Ax, but hero really can't. Hero's SB flatting range seems likely to be concentrated around combos that connect really well with this board. V could conceivably have all the same hands in his range, but those hands don't make up nearly as much of his range, compared to SB, who would likely be raising all the over-pairs, suited Ax and Broadway combos that miss here.

If V really did turn a straight, I think he should have realized he's at the top of his range, and gone for max value with an over-bet. Even if he had a straight, I think he's got so many other hands in his range on the turn that hero could barrel or even check raise again, and there isn't much V can do, even with 6x.

1. V betting 80 into 156 is close enough to giving us the direct odds of 22.7%.
2. The aim of our river action is to maximise our winning, therefore if our bet looks too strong which will result in V's fold, then a check might be better off even if the chance of V betting is just 1% more than the chance of him calling a jam. I believe if we jam, very unlikely V will call (probability a), and if we check, very small chance V will bet (probability b). As long as b ＞ a, the better strategy is still to check. If you think this is false, please first say it out loud you would call with A6 facing a river jam.

You are welcome. After sharing this hand, I also realized that I can't always put myself into my opponent's shoes, figuring how he might react in order to determine my best strategy, because villain may think in a completely different way comparing to mine. I just wished those people who say 'jam! jam!' would at least admit that they would call with A6 first, which they shouldn't be so ashamed of.

If anyone else would like to share your opinion on this post, please voice your opinions on the above probability whether it is b ＞a or a ＞b (against a competent player). This is not about the absolute value of a, and it's not about whether 1-a ＞a.

The problem is ,you are assuming you are good when you hit, and that's not always true. So if you don't get extra money when you hit because it goes xx, then it's no good for you. Villain can have 99 here, that hand makes a lot of sense. Perhaps also 77 88 79 etc. so the extra bet only goes in if you are losing, potentially

A6 I don't bet on the river because I don't have it on the river. I won't bet that flop with A6 as it hits the blind ranges better. I'm more likely to bet a combo draw like 56s 67s especially with bdfd.

Then I'm not sure how I play the straights on the river. Perhaps I bet fold with a small bet. So maybe you can bet half pot so I have to call. I'm blocking some boats in these cases

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I think the argument they'd make is that if you check, V checks back a lot, but if you jam, V calls at some non-zero percent frequency, so jamming is higher EV. Just because we might fold 6x all the time as V doesn't make the play bad. It's basically a free roll.

If we think V ever has better hands, then it becomes more of a debate about check-calling vs betting (bet-folding?), vs jamming.

My view is that any bet even close to 1/2 pot or more is unlikely to be called by worse when you take this line, but a thinking V might raise if we bet small, a bad V might also spaz-raise, and few V's are going to fold a straight to a bet of 25% to 30% pot. You could take this line and bet river for that size with 6x, and get looked up light, or get raised if V thinks your bet looks scared.

So I think betting small is higher EV than checking or jamming, if we're planning to bet call or bet raise, never bet fold, and were considering a jam, because the goal is to get max value. If we're unsure, then just check call.